New Bounce, But Same Question
Rates rallied briskly today as investors focused on China's covid lockdowns, oil prices, and inflation implications. The oversold technical landscape added some urgency to the rebound. Notably, 10yr yields closed at week-over-week lows--something they've only done one other time since the sharpest leg of 2022's rate spike began in early March. Last time this happened, we remained defensive due to unknown demand implications from month-end trading. This time around, the dynamics are a bit different, but the question remains: is this finally the bounce we've been looking for? The answer is the same as well: we need more improvement and more victories before lowering the defenses.
Fed MBS Buying 10am, 11:30am, 1pm
Bonds rallied at the open, both in Asia and then again in Europe as global equities indices tumbled. 10yr yields dropped more than 10bps at one point, but are currently down 8.5bps at 2.82%. UMBS 4.0s are starting out up 3/8ths of a point.
New lows of the day for 10yr yields, down more than 12bps at 2.781. MBS up half a point. Oil prices are leading the way lower so far, but the move is compounded by technicals and short-covering.
Giving back some gains in the PM hours, but still in positive territory. 10yr up to 2.818 from lows of 2.76% (still down 8.7bps). UMBS 4.0 coupons still up half a point, but nearly a quarter point below intraday highs.