It Took a Village (Of Econ Data)

Bonds began the day in weaker territory but rallied after the 8:30am econ data.  This wasn't exclusively a function of Core PCE hitting its forecast, but also drew strength from the higher continued claims number.  Just over an hour later, Chicago PMI came in noticeably weaker and added to the rally.  Gains slowly evaporated throughout the day in a linear trend.  While this left a microscopic improvement on the day it did nothing to push rates/yields out of their exceptionally narrow, prevailing trend.

Econ Data / Events
    • Jobless Claims
      • 215k vs 210k f'cast, 202k prev
    • Continued Claims
      • 1905k vs 1874k f'cast, 1860k prev
    • Core PCE m/m
      • 0.4 vs 0.4 f'cast, 0.2 prev
    • Core PCE y/y
      • 2.8 vs 2.8 f'cast, 2.9 prev
    • Chicago PMI
      • 44 vs 48 f'cast, 46 prev
Market Movement Recap
08:54 AM

Moderately weaker overnight, but erasing losses after data. 10yr nearly unchanged at 4.266.  MBS down only 1 tick (0.03).

09:52 AM

Additional gains after Chicago PMI.  10yr down 1.8bps at 4.246.  MBS up 2 ticks (.06).

01:27 PM

Off the best levels, but still stronger.  MBS up 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr down 1.2bps at 4.252.

03:07 PM

some weakness heading into 3pm close (month-end).  Still barely positive with MBS up 1 tick (.03) and 10yr down half a bp at 4.259.

04:48 PM

Briefly weaker at 4pm, but recovering back in line with the levels from the previous update.

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