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Bonds Making a Case For a New Trend
We've talked a lot about the linear uptrend in bond yields that began in April. It was defeated by the end of June and bonds began drifting sideways. But now they may be making a case for a new trend toward lower rates.
Econ Data / Events
11:30-11:50 AM (ET) - Fed 30yr UMBS Buying
Jobless Claims 1.314m vs 1.375m f'cast, 1.427 prev
Continued Claims 18.062m vs 18.95m f'cast, 19,290m prev
Market Movement Recap
08:16 AM Once again, stocks and bonds made a modest move to start the overnight session and were then extremely flat since then. MBS starting out up 1 tick (0.03) and 10yr yields are down 1.3bps at .653
11:00 AM Bonds are rallying nicely now as the stock market swan dives. 10yr yields down more than 4bps to .62%+ and UMBS 2.0 up an eight, quickly approaching 103.00
12:57 PM MBS outperforming as Treasuries prepare for the 30yr bond auction. UMBS 2.0 up nearly a quarter point, now at all-time highs of 103.
01:51 PM There's a bit of a run on bonds at the moment, and it is NOT relying on stock market weakness. 10yr yields are challenging the lowest levels since mid May and UMBS 2.0 coupons are up almost 3/8ths of a point trading at 103-04 (103.125).
03:55 PM Bond rally ran out of steam--especially for MBS. We're still stronger on the day, but more than a quarter point off the highs. No real reason for the reversal apart from the strength that came before it.
MBS Commentary
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Bonds Making a Case For a New Trend
We've talked a lot about the linear uptrend in bond yields that began in April. It was defeated by the end of June and bonds began drifting sideways. But n... (read more)
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Mortgage Rate Watch
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Mortgage rates were unchanged today for the average lender. That means they remain at all-time lows that are even lower than the all-time lows seen during the previous 3 business days. Even so, today's underlying market movement might be a bit of a w... (read more)
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Housing News
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A new survey by the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) has found that the vast majority of its members feel as though their businesses are back on track. NAR says, "After enduring months of setbacks brought on by the coronavirus pandemic... ... (read more)
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Rob Chrisman
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United Airlines may lay off 36,000? Bed, Bath, and Beyond closing 200 stores? Walgreen’s cutting 4,000? Yup. Lower rates won’t save those jobs, but we’ll have low rates for a long time. Things are different for residential lenders. ... (read more)
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Housing News
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Fannie Mae's Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI) continued to rebound last month from its sharp retreat to near record lows in the Spring. The Index, based on selected responses to the company's National Housing Survey (NHS) fell an aggregate 29.5 p... (read more)
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Housing News
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Mortgage application volume bounced back into positive territory last week , even though banks and many businesses were closed on Friday for the Independence Day Holiday. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) said its Market Composite Index, a measu... (read more)
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