Rates Having a Tough Time Breaking Lower, At Least For Now We've been following .58% in 10yr yields for months as the best candidate for the bottom of "the range."  Now that mortgage rates and MBS spreads have largely settled relative to Treasuries, we might wonder if they'll also have a tough time moving lower.  The big caveat here is that there's still a chance that the .58% bounces are purely coincidental.  If it continues to happen, we'll be talking more and more about it. Econ Data / Events 20min of Fed 30yr UMBS Buying  10am, 1130am (M-F) and 1pm (T-Th) Jobless Claims 1.416m vs 1.300m f'cast , 1.307m prev Market Movement Recap 08:14 AM Bonds modestly stronger overnight despite slightly higher stock prices.  0.58% resistance remains intact underfoot.  2.0 UMBS starting out almost an eighth of a point higher. 09:13 AM Bonds briefly improved after Mnuchin comments (lower unemployment benefits and no payroll tax cut in the next round of stimulus), but are struggling to stay below .58%.  2.0 UMBS are an eighth of a point higher. 12:06 PM MBS now down an eighth from the highs.  10yr yields unable to break below .58%.  Low volatility overall.   03:55 PM MBS continue to underperform despite Treasuries returning toward their better levels of the day.    10yr yields are down nearly 2bps at .582.  2.0 UMBS are down at the lows of the day, - 2 ticks (-0.06) vs yesterday and trading at 102-29 (102.91).  

July 23, 2020 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: 30 Yr. Fixed 6.29% +0.02%   6.11% 7.26% 15 Yr. Fixed 5.72% +0.02%   5.54% 6.59% 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.25% +0.00%   6.25% 7.45% Compare Mortgage Rates from Local Lenders for Jul 23, 2020 Mortgage Rates Are Still Amazing, But Improving at a Slower Pace Now Tue, Jul 21, 2020 4:25PM Mortgage rates have been holding a very narrow range since July 9th. They also hit new all-time lows on July 9th. A few of the days since then have been slightly better and--less frequently--slightly worse, but any one of them is noticeably better than anything before July 9th. This is the new reality of the mortgage market after coronavirus. It will continue to be the reality until it's not anymore, and the deciding factor there will likely be progress against the pandemic. There are other considerations as well. Chief among these is the correlation between mortgage rates and the broader bond... (read more) Mortgage News Daily Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.29% +0.02 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.72% +0.02 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 6.00% +0.03 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.25% 0.00 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 5.65% +0.02 0.00 30 Yr. VA 6.01% +0.02 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 9/12 Freddie Mac Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.35% -0.15 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.50% -0.10 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 9/11 Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.49% -0.15 0.56 15 Yr. Fixed 5.70% -0.14 0.55 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.44% -0.14 0.48 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 9/10 UMBS 30YR 5.5 101.24 +0.11   97.47 101.61 UMBS 30YR 6.0 102.42 +0.03   99.66 102.50 10 YR Treasury 4.038 -0.029   3.621 4.780 MBS Live Recap: Rates Having a Tough Time Breaking Lower, At Least For Now Thu, Jul 23, 2020 4:15PM Rates Having a Tough Time Breaking Lower, At Least For Now We've been following .58% in 10yr yields for months as the best candidate for the bottom of "the range."  Now that mortgage rates and MBS spreads have largely settled relative to Treasuries, we might wonder if they'll also have a tough time moving lower.... (read more) MBS Price Change UMBS 5.0 99.85 +0.22 UMBS 5.5 101.22 +0.09 UMBS 6.0 102.42 +0.03 GNMA 5.0 100.12 +0.12 GNMA 5.5 101.15 +0.02 GNMA 6.0 102.07 +0.07 Pricing as of: 9/15 11:06AM EST US Treasury Yield Change 2 YR Treasury 3.533 -0.020 5 YR Treasury 3.602 -0.028 7 YR Treasury 3.789 -0.026 10 YR Treasury 4.040 -0.026 30 YR Treasury 4.660 -0.021 Pricing as of: 9/15 11:06AM EST Other News Forbearance Penalties Are Making Things Harder for Low-FICO, First-time Borrowers Thu, Jul 23, 2020 10:24AM The Urban Institute (UI) is speculating that a new penalty imposed on loan originators and arising out of the COVID-19 forbearance plans is beginning to significantly tighten the credit box. A paper written by analysts Laurie Goodman and Michael Neal says that mortgages are considerably more difficult to get than they were four months ago, and this is dispro... (read more) Existing Home Sales Roared Back in June, Ending 3-Month Drought Wed, Jul 22, 2020 11:35AM Existing home sales ended a three-month string of losses arising out of the COVID-19 pandemic with a flourish, soaring by 20.7 percent from May to June. Sales rose from a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.91 million units in May to 4.72 million units . The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) said sales of single-family homes, townhomes, condominiu... (read more) Home Prices Fell Slightly in May Wed, Jul 22, 2020 10:42AM House prices fell in May, although they remain well ahead of prices a year earlier. The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) said its House Price Index (HPI) dropped by 0.3 percent from its April levels. Prices were down or unchanged in eight of the nine census divisions and the 0.2 percent increase reported for April was revised down to 0.1 percent. Prices... (read more) Underwriting, Forbearance, One-time Close, Marketing Tools; Loan Processing Changes Thu, Jul 23, 2020 9:38AM Loan officers are known for “holding the hand” of their borrowers. Now Google would like to hold the other. With the help of the CFPB, and launched yesterday, searching “mortgage” in Google on one’s phone will lead to Google explaining what a mortgage is, terms to know, recent rates, what one can expect to pay, and more. Probabl... (read more) Latest Video White House and GOP still negotiating stimulus How the Fed could save Main Street U.S. weekly jobless claims total 1.416 million, vs 1.3 million expected GOP mulling unemployment boost of $400 per month through Dec. 31, sources t... Around the Web Redfin Home Sellers' Asking Prices up 13% from Last Year as Demand Keeps Soaring Calculated Risk Blog NMHC: "July Apartment Market Conditions Showed Continued Impact of COVID-19 Outbreak" CNBC Romney reportedly will vote against controversial Fed nominee Judy Shelton CNBC $600 in extra unemployment would fall to $200 or $300 a week, under Mnuchin plan CNBC July jobs report could show no progress and even losses, as virus spreads Calculated Risk Blog Hotels: Occupancy Rate Declined 39% Year-over-year NAHB Eye on Housing Expectations for Housing Availability See Slight Improvement Calculated Risk Blog Comments on Weekly Unemployment Claims CNBC This is the average unemployment insurance payment in every U.S. state without the extra $600 in federal aid CNBC This zero-down payment mortgage helps lower-income people become homeowners CNBC U.S. weekly jobless claims total 1.416 million, vs 1.3 million expected CNBC Mnuchin says GOP plan for unemployment extension will be based on '70% wage replacement' Redfin More than 27% of Homebuyers Are Searching Out of Town, with Phoenix, Sacramento and Las Vegas the Most Popular Destinations

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