MBS Struggle to Hold Gains, But Rates Aren't Scared Yet Bonds were mixed today with both MBS and Treasuries gaining ground (and then losing slightly less ground) at varying paces.  Treasuries outperformed, but that's not a huge surprise on a rally day.  Both have bigger fish to fry in the days ahead with plenty of potential volatility from the election, Fed announcement, and NFP.  Stakes are higher for Treasuries compared to MBS, and MUCH higher compared to mortgage rates (which have been extremely well insulated by most of the recent bond market volatility due to historically wide lender margins).  Still, if there's one market catalyst in the near term that could get things moving, it would be the election.   Econ Data / Events 20min of Fed 30yr UMBS Buying  10am, 1130am (M-F) and 1pm (T-Th) ISM Manufacturing 59.3 vs 55.8 f'cas t, 55.4 prev Market Movement Recap 09:13 AM Bonds opened stronger in Asia, lost some ground on stronger data in Europe, and have been moving into stronger territory ever since.  Both stocks and bonds are doing better as traders cautiously jump back into long positions for the new month.  10yr yields down 3+ bps to .84% and 2.0 UMBS up 6 ticks (.19) at 103-10 (103.31). 12:55 PM Bonds are off their best levels, but not panicking.  The 1.5 UMBS coupon is the only noticeable laggard.  There is no overt underlying motivation for the move apart from the fact that 1.5 coupons are simply going to march to their own beat from time to time as they continue to build liquidity. 03:00 PM UMBS 2.0 coupons joined in the selling trend and hit lows just before 2pm.  They haven't moved much since then, but are still up 3 ticks (0.09) on the day.  10yr yields are at their highest levels since this morning, now down only 2.35bps on the day at .85%.  Very calm and narrow trading day relative to the volatility seen at the end of last week.

November 2, 2020 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: MBS Commentary MBS Live Recap: MBS Struggle to Hold Gains, But Rates Aren't Scared Yet MBS Struggle to Hold Gains, But Rates Aren't Scared Yet Bonds were mixed today with both MBS and Treasuries gaining ground (and then losing slightly less ground) at varying paces.  Treasuries outperform... (read more) Rob Chrisman Ops and Sales Jobs; Database, Servicing, Non-QM, Income Analysis Products; Upcoming Training and Events Some would say that the year is either flying by, others would suggest it is slowly bumping along the bottom. Either way, here we are in November, and turkey farmers and butchers are wondering how to adapt their products to proposed smaller family ga... (read more) Mortgage Rate Watch 2016 Reminds Us How Completely Crazy Next Week Could Be For Rates The 2016 election won't soon be forgotten in the mortgage or bond markets. Many of the predictions were dead wrong when it came to how interest rates would react to a Trump victory, and the reason ended up being very simple in hindsight. Are there an... (read more) Housing News Fannie/Freddie Report Increased Profits Both GSEs reported financial results for the third quarter of 2020 that were significantly higher than both their Q2 2020 and their 2019 numbers . Fannie Mae's net and its comprehensive incomes were $4.2 billion and Freddie Mac's net and comprehensiv... (read more) Housing News Forbearance Plans Increase, Many are Reinstatements The number of loans in COVID-19 related forbearance plans rose during the past week, driven by both an increase in new plans and significantly fewer borrowers exiting from the program. Black Knight said its weekly survey found a net increase of 31,00... (read more) Housing News Residential Fixed Investment Soared Past GDP Growth in Q3 Hidden in the Q3 report on Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on Thursday, which showed a rebound of 33.1 percent from the 31.4 percent loss in Q2 was news of some real growth. Robert Dietz, chief economist of the National Association of Home Builders poin... (read more) Mortgage Rates 30 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.67% -0.05% Rate Change Points Mortgage News Daily 30 Yr. Fixed 6.67% -0.05 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.91% -0.05 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 6.20% -0.02 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.80% -0.04 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 6.33% 0.00 0.00 30 Yr. VA 6.22% -0.01 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 6/30 15 Yr. Fixed Rate 5.91% -0.05% Rate Change Points Freddie Mac 30 Yr. Fixed 6.77% -0.04 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.89% -0.07 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 6/26 Rate Change Points Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.88% +0.04 0.63 15 Yr. Fixed 6.11% -0.03 0.74 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.88% +0.07 0.60 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 6/25 MBS / Treasuries UMBS 30YR 5.5 100.02 +0.21 Price / Yield Change MBS UMBS 5.5 100.02 +0.21 UMBS 6.0 101.66 +0.15 GNMA 5.5 100.14 +0.15 GNMA 6.0 101.49 +0.13 Pricing as of: 6/30 5:56PM EST 10 Year US Treasury 4.2290 -0.0523 Price / Yield Change US Treasury 2 YR Treasury 3.723 -0.027 5 YR Treasury 3.799 -0.036 7 YR Treasury 3.992 -0.044 10 YR Treasury 4.229 -0.052 30 YR Treasury 4.775 -0.056 Pricing as of: 6/30 5:56PM EST Latest Video October ISM manufacturing index sees best number since August Markit U.S. manufacturing PMI for October comes in at 53.4 vs. 53.3 expecte... The 9 a.m. Bond Report: November 2, 2020 The 9 a.m. Bond Report: October 30, 2020 Around the Web Calculated Risk Blog The Election and 2021 Economic Forecast Calculated Risk Blog ISM Manufacturing index Increased to 59.3 in October Calculated Risk Blog Construction Spending Increased 0.3% in September Calculated Risk Blog Eight High Frequency Indicators for the Economy CNBC PPP loan borrowers are being steered toward forgiveness. Why they should slow down NAR - Realtor.com Why This Winter's Slow' Home-Selling Season May Be Hotter Than Ever NAR - Realtor.com Dearth of Credit Starves Detroit's Housing Market Calculated Risk Blog Las Vegas Visitor Authority: No Convention Attendance, Visitor Traffic Down 51% YoY in September Calculated Risk Blog Q3 2020 GDP Details on Residential and Commercial Real Estate CNBC Fed lowers minimum loan level for small business lending program Calculated Risk Blog Real Personal Income less Transfer Payments NAHB Eye on Housing Jobless Claims Continue to Fall Calculated Risk Blog Personal Income increased 0.9% in September, Spending increased 1.4%

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