Bonds Come Up Short After Another Attempt to Re-Enter Previous Range For a second straight day, 10yr yields had a solid opportunity to move back into the previous sub-0.72 range only to lose ground as the day progressed.  Compared to yesterday, today's game looked like a much easier win.  A covid surge in Europe and weaker stocks helped bonds overnight. Treasuries were ready to capitalize early in the day, but after the market found its footing, bonds sold off for the rest of the day.  We had the lead.  We blew it.  Game over.  As expected, MBS ran out of energy to outperform Treasuries and were eventually dragged into weaker territory as well. Econ Data / Events 20min of Fed 30yr UMBS Buying  10am, 1130am (M-F) and 1pm (T-Th) Philly Fed Index 32.3 vs 14.0 f'cast, 15.0 prev Jobless Claims 898k vs 825k f'cast, 845k prev Import Prices 0.3 vs 0.3 NY Fed Manufacturing 10.5 vs 15.0 f'cast, 17.0 prev Market Movement Recap 08:48 AM Bonds were much stronger overnight in a move led by a sharp rally in European bonds and reasonably strong selling pressure in global equities markets.  Key considerations include record covid numbers in Europe (new lockdowns), weaker earnings, stimulus delays, and snags in Brexit negotiations.  AM econ data did no damage.  10yr down over 3bps and MBS up 2 ticks (0.06). 01:29 PM Strong intraday correlation between stocks and bonds, although10yr yields have been rising faster compared to stock prices--just turning negative on the day at .727%.  MBS are back in line with the lows of the day after successfully bouncing earlier this morning.  With most of the selling hitting between 9:30am and 10am, this can be viewed as bonds being ready to capitalize on additional stock weakness, not finding it, and then turning around to head back from whence they came. 03:38 PM Treasury weakness has continued at a modest pace with yields inching up to another new intraday high (.739%).  MBS lost ground after the Fed's 2nd buying operation of the day (ended at 1:20pm) and are now 1 tick lower (-0.03) on the day and roughly an eighth of a point lower from lenders' rate sheet print times this morning. 

October 15, 2020 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: MBS Commentary MBS Live Recap: Bonds Come Up Short After Another Attempt to Re-Enter Previous Range Bonds Come Up Short After Another Attempt to Re-Enter Previous Range For a second straight day, 10yr yields had a solid opportunity to move back into the previous sub-0.72 range only to lose ground as the day... (read more) Housing News Troubling Unemployment Numbers Eclipsed by a Strong Housing Market Although the housing market continues to show strength, Freddie Mac economists say there are increasingly troubling signs in the larger economy. The third quarter forecast from the company's Economic and Housing Research Group notes an apparent stall... (read more) Rob Chrisman MLO, Ops Jobs; Shell Wanted; Broker, Retention, Doc Products; Investors React to USDA, FHA, VA Changes When I grow up, I want to live in… Estonia? If you need a break, and are thinking about leaving the U.S., take a gander at some highly-ranked work from home places to live besides the United States. Election Night? Forget it. It could be &ldqu... (read more) Mortgage Rate Watch Sideways Streak Continues For Rates If you're shopping for a purchase mortgage and if you'd previously received quotes from one of the slower moving lenders back in late July or early August, you may be looking at mortgage rates that are very close to all-time lows . If you're in the m... (read more) Housing News Mortgage Rates Hit Record Lows but Applications Fell Flat The volume of mortgage applications dipped slightly last week. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) said its Market Composite Index, a measure of that volume, was down 0.7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis during the week ended October 9 and w... (read more) Housing News Late-Stage Delinquencies Now Twice Great Recession Peak Mortgage delinquencies continued to rise in July according to CoreLogic's new loan performance report. The company found that 6.6 percent of all mortgages were at least 30 days past due (including those in foreclosure.) This represents a 2.8-percenta... (read more) Mortgage Rates 30 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.67% -0.05% Rate Change Points Mortgage News Daily 30 Yr. Fixed 6.67% -0.05 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.91% -0.05 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 6.20% -0.02 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.80% -0.04 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 6.33% 0.00 0.00 30 Yr. VA 6.22% -0.01 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 6/30 15 Yr. Fixed Rate 5.91% -0.05% Rate Change Points Freddie Mac 30 Yr. Fixed 6.77% -0.04 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.89% -0.07 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 6/26 Rate Change Points Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.88% +0.04 0.63 15 Yr. Fixed 6.11% -0.03 0.74 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.88% +0.07 0.60 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 6/25 MBS / Treasuries UMBS 30YR 5.5 100.07 +0.26 Price / Yield Change MBS UMBS 5.5 100.07 +0.26 UMBS 6.0 101.68 +0.17 GNMA 5.5 100.19 +0.19 GNMA 6.0 101.50 +0.14 Pricing as of: 6/30 6:32PM EST 10 Year US Treasury 4.2246 -0.0567 Price / Yield Change US Treasury 2 YR Treasury 3.715 -0.035 5 YR Treasury 3.804 -0.031 7 YR Treasury 3.990 -0.045 10 YR Treasury 4.225 -0.057 30 YR Treasury 4.776 -0.055 Pricing as of: 6/30 6:32PM EST Latest Video BlackRock's Jeff Rosenberg on market excitement over a stimulus deal and Eu... Why this trader is bullish on the 10-year futures trade Philly Fed manufacturing index for October at highest since February Weekly jobless claims come in at 898,000, vs 830,000 expected Around the Web CNBC No doubt' that crucial U.S. fiscal stimulus is coming, IMF managing director says CNBC 'Hottest real estate market in the world' may be Palm Beach, Florida, brokers say Calculated Risk Blog Hotels: Occupancy Rate Declined 29.2% Year-over-year NAHB Eye on Housing Remodeling Industry Confidence Surges in Third Quarter Calculated Risk Blog Philly Fed Manufacturing "Picked Up"; NY Fed Manufacturing "Increased Modestly" in October NAHB Eye on Housing Home Building: Sales Outpacing Starts by a Historic Margin CNBC Weekly jobless claims come in at 898,000, vs 830,000 expected NAHB Eye on Housing Softwood Lumber Prices Surge a Record 29% in September Building Materials Up 4.4% in 2020 NPR Paris Under Curfew: Europe Reacts As Countries See Highest-Ever Coronavirus Numbers Calculated Risk Blog Houston Real Estate in September: Sales Up 32% YoY, Inventory Down 25% YoY news.google.com Landlords feel the financial squeeze as coronavirus pandemic continues Calculated Risk Blog House Prices to National Average Wage Index CNBC Watch: Treasury Secretary Mnuchin speaks as White House, Democrats try to strike stimulus deal

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