“What is the most common question Finnish detectives ask suspects? ‘What were you doing the night between November and May?’” There will be less daylight in the Northern Hemisphere until the Winter Solstice on December 21st, with lots of weather, and mortgage news, between now and then. Old mortgage vets recall the end of November as traditionally being the time that Freddie and Fannie announce their loan limits for the next year. Given the increase in non-Agency lending over the last few years, this has lost some of its significance, but it will still have a ripple effect through the industry. Certainly loan officers can use it for marketing purposes and try to add some value. Along those lines, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) has a write up on the reasons to own a home which is a short must-read for any originator to better understand a client. But then we have Better offering up things to think about when not using an agent to buy a home. (Today’s podcast can be found here. This week’s ‘casts are presented by Truework, a Checkr company, the one verification solution to replace in-house waterfalls. Verify any borrower with a VOIEA solution that automates the entire process to quickly deliver the most accurate and complete reports with broad GSE coverage. Today’s has an interview with Private Money Funding’s Ryan Hermansky on how private lenders are filling gaps left by traditional banks in commercial real estate by offering flexible, asset-backed financing with conservative underwriting.)

Lender and Broker Products, Services, and Software

You can help turn a veteran’s service into their chance at generational wealth. Veterans and military families represent one of the most resilient and qualified buyer segments in today’s housing market, yet misperceptions surrounding VA financing continue to create friction and leave deals on the table. On November 18 at 11 a.m. PT, join Cotality and a panel of VA lending experts for a tactical panel discussion exploring how leading lenders win more VA volume by navigating guidelines, eliminating overlays, busting listing agent myths and helping servicemembers build wealth through homeownership. Experts from Navy Federal, First American Title and Edge Home Finance will be participating in the discussion.

Most Americans turned their clocks back Nov. 1 when daylight saving time ended, a reminder of how much even a one-hour shift can change things (and if we did DST year-round, some parts of the U.S. wouldn’t see the year’s latest sunrise until after 9:30 a.m.!) October brought some notable shifts in the mortgage market, too. Optimal Blue’s October Market Advantage report shows ARMs climbed to 17 percent of lock volume, the highest share in a data series going back to 2019. On the secondary side, best-efforts-to-mandatory spreads widened, hedges shifted to the 6.0 coupon, and more lenders released servicing. Looking ahead, Optimal Blue’s latest forecast, powered by Virtual Economist, now points to rates rising near term before easing later in the 12-month outlook. See how the market is adjusting. Get the full report.

Fans of the Chrisman Commentary will be interested in a new resource for mortgage lending leaders. Introducing MGIC’s Industry Intelligence Center, a curated source for important industry research, reports, data, and insights to help lending leaders make confident decisions. With the Industry Intelligence Center, leaders can quickly access critical intel from industry-trusted sources, such as government agencies, GSEs, research organizations, trade associations and industry experts. Having this intel in one convenient place makes it easier for leaders to keep abreast of economic conditions, market trends, regulatory development, and growth opportunities so they can make informed, strategic decisions. Tour the new Industry Intelligence Center.

With the 10-year Treasury yield still elevated and mortgage rates near levels not seen since 2001, MSR valuations, retention strategies, and balance sheet decisions are getting a fresh look. Persistent inflation, rising consumer debt, and a cooling housing market continue to shape how servicing portfolios perform and how they are valued. Join MCT's MSR Advisory team on November 18 at 11am PT for the MSR Market Trends & Updates Webinar. The session will cover SRP levels, bulk demand, retention strategies, the FASB recapture proposal, and prepayment and delinquency trends. Attendees will also explore keeping pricing consistent from street rates through booking, the latest MSRlive! model updates, and how MSR Marketplace gives buyers and sellers a standardized data set. Register for the webinar to hear what is driving the market and what it means for servicers.

“December 31 is quickly approaching. Is your MERS Annual Review done? If your organization serviced 1,000 or more MERS loans as of March 31st, you are required to complete an Annual Review with a qualified third-party vendor by December 31st. Missing this deadline can result in steep fines or even suspension from the MERS system. Clayton Servicing Oversight is your trusted partner to make this process painless. With deep expertise and proven experience, our team ensures your review is conducted efficiently, accurately and in full compliance with MERS requirements. We help you avoid risk while giving you confidence that your operations are protected. Don’t wait until it’s too late. Engage with Clayton now and get the help you need before the year-end deadline.”

“AI in mortgage lending: Innovation requires accountability. As AI moves from pilots into production, lenders are asking tougher questions. Who’s responsible for the results? How is borrower data protected? And can every automated action be traced and verified? At Blue Sage, we believe AI governance isn’t an obstacle to innovation. It’s what makes responsible adoption possible. On the latest episode of Mortgage Tech Intelligence, Joey McDuffee sits down with Brian Vieaux, CMB, President of MISMO, to discuss the industry’s evolving approach to AI governance. Brian explores MISMO’s FRAME initiative, its new AI Governance Certification program, and why lenders need clear standards for vendor oversight, transparency, and accountability. It’s a timely conversation that reinforces our approach to AI: build it into lending workflows, protect borrower data, and keep people in control. Listen to the full episode here.”

“Looking for a correspondent partner that can support both complex lending scenarios and streamlined loan execution? Planet's non-QM platform helps sellers find the right execution for unique lending opportunities. Leverage our scenario desk for bank statement income calculations, non-warrantable condo approvals, and guidance on complex underwriting scenarios from our experienced non-QM underwriting team. With delegated and non-delegated delivery options, forward commitments, flexible reliance letter options, and rated residential and commercial servicing platforms, Planet is built around the way you do business. For sellers leveraging Co-Issue, Planet continues to expand execution options with FNMA SMP document transfers via Box.com for secure servicing transfers, FHLMC CIX All-In Funding for a streamlined SRP funding process, and additional document custodian options for FHLMC CIX sellers, including US Bank (Jacksonville) alongside Deutsche Bank and BNY Mellon. For Co-Issue questions, contact Cardell Smith, Director, MSR Transaction Management. To explore correspondent partnership opportunities, contact Jason Mac Gloan, SVP Correspondent Sales.”

Demo Day is Next Week

Chrisman Demo Day returns Thursday, November 19 at 10am PT / 1pm ET, with compliance and risk front and center. Three of the eight companies on the agenda focus on compliance and fraud, each guarding a different point in the loan. Watch how lenders check a loan against federal, state, and local rules, control what AI agents are authorized to do with sensitive data, and vet the closing agent before funds move.

Along the way, Loan Origination Software carries the file from application to close, AI and automation read and sort the documents, secondary marketing tools price and hedge the loan, and data and intelligence handles income analysis and condition clearing.

Featuring demos from: Asurity (RegCheck), Blue Sage, AiCR, Lender Price, Crittora, Vesta, TRUE, and Secure Insight. Eight companies, 10 minutes each, one connected pipeline. Register here to save your spot. Want to be featured in a future Demo Day? Chrisman Marketplace members get free access. Join the Marketplace to participate as a vendor.

Webinars to Finish the Week

Loan Vision offers up, “When the Going Gets Tough, the Tough Get Going” today, November 12, at 10AM PT. “Rates aren’t coming down. Lenders aren’t waiting. Are they heading to sharper products, better service, leaner costs, or all of the above? Join Loan Vision’s Brian Friedman, Robbie Chrisman, and Rob Chrisman in discussing what they’re seeing lenders and clients do in this environment to help head into 2027.

The Big Picture is also today, November 12, at noon PT. Ed Brady, the CEO of Home Builders Institute, joins Mitch Kider for a conversation on the policy and regulatory landscape surrounding builders. The discussion explores emerging developments, the implications for lenders and housing finance, and what industry leaders should be watching as they plan ahead. Last Word is tomorrow at 10AM PT. Brian Vieaux, Kevin Peranio, Christy Soukhamneut, and Tracey King break down the week's biggest market signals, Agency developments, and industry storylines. The discussion focuses on what the industry got right, what it missed, and what lenders should be watching next.

Company Shifts Continue

From Colorado’s Mortgage Solutions Financial’s Dawn Dawson, head of marketing, comes an announcement regarding a change in strategic focus for the company into loan servicing.

“Mortgage Solutions of Colorado LLC is shifting its focus from loan origination to loan servicing. Effective November 30, 2026, its origination arm and sales team doing business as ‘Mortgage Solutions Financial’, will leave and move to and be powered by Fairway Independent Mortgage Corporation.

“At Fairway, the MSF sales team will continue serving the same markets with the same loan officers, preserving the local relationships its customers and partners know and trust. Through Fairway, the MSF sales team will gain access to a broader range of loan programs and an expanded national reach.

“Mortgage Solutions of Colorado will continue servicing the portfolio of loans it previously originated under the name ‘MSF Servicing,’ while expanding its servicing business to include portfolios from other lenders, banks, and credit unions. Mortgage Solutions of Colorado’s servicing operations will remain at the company’s current location on Campus Drive in Colorado Springs.” Congratulations to all involved!

Who Is Training the Human in the Loop

Brian Vieaux, CMB and the President of MISMO, writes, “After learning the acronym HITL on an industry podcast, I posted about it on LinkedIn. Since then, my antenna has been up. I keep seeing ‘human in the loop’ offered as reassurance about AI.

“The pessimist in me wonders whether that phrase is becoming a marketing tool before companies have established how prepared their humans are. A capable mortgage professional may still need training in the limitations of the AI they oversee.

“A friend, a human one, shared an article about PwC’s critical thinking initiative. Bloomberg Tax reports an estimated investment exceeding $100 million, including program development and university funding. The rollout is planned for December 2026, with results still ahead. That commitment to people caught my attention.

“Much of mortgage’s AI discussion concerns governance at the 30,000-foot level. I want more attention on the ground, where employees decide whether an output can be trusted. Reviewers should understand hallucinations, including convincing but fabricated information, and know when to investigate or escalate. Technical teams should monitor for drift as changing data or operating conditions can affect system performance.

“Putting my lender C-suite hat back on, which still fits well, I would assess every teammate’s AI acumen. I would ask which tools they use, how they use them, and how they validate the results.

“The AI System Inventory in FRAME, MISMO’s AI governance toolkit, would help identify the systems involved. I would pair it with an assessment of employees’ understanding and validation practices, including exercises that demonstrate their ability to investigate questionable outputs. Those expectations belong within the organization’s AI governance program. The gaps discovered should shape a training curriculum. Employees need practical knowledge of their tools’ limitations, consistent validation procedures, and time to follow them. Review should reflect the risk of the task. Training should lead to practice and reassessment. As tools and uses evolve, the curriculum should evolve alongside them. Lessons from daily work should inform ongoing learning.

“MISMO is positioned to help. Our new AI Governance Forum and FRAME provide a foundation for collaboration, consensus, and adoption. We could develop shared assessment questions, training scenarios, and learning resources that companies adapt to their tools and workflows.

When a company says it keeps a human in the loop, it should be able to explain how that person is prepared for the responsibility. That preparation deserves an ongoing investment. #VieauxPoint”

Capital Markets

As Robbie and I constantly remind originators, the U.S. Federal Reserve does not set mortgage rates… But it is good to know how they view economic data. Federal Reserve officials have indicated a willingness to increase the pace of interest-rate hikes after October's Consumer Price Index showed core inflation rising 0.3 percent for the third straight month. Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan says a more rapid move is possible; Fed Governor Christopher Waller has suggested a 50-basis-point hike could be considered.

Hotter-than-expected October inflation drove Treasury yields higher before the Veterans Day holiday, with core CPI rising 0.3 percent versus the 0.2 percent forecast and headline inflation increasing 0.4 percent, triggering a significant Treasury selloff that was amplified by hawkish Fed commentary supporting additional rate hikes and a potential pause thereafter. Treasury yields climbed, with the 10-year briefly exceeding 5 percent, while a poorly received $42 billion 10-year auction reinforced weak investor demand for longer-term debt and pushed the yield curve into a bear-flattening pattern.

Mortgage-backed securities also faced selling pressure, losing approximately 0.25–0.75 points, with lower coupons and the belly of the coupon stack experiencing the largest declines, while current-coupon yields climbed to 6.13 percent. Overall, persistent inflation, increasingly aggressive Fed expectations, and weak Treasury auction demand are creating renewed upward pressure on borrowing costs, weighing on MBS valuations, and presenting additional challenges for mortgage rates and housing affordability.

Today’s economic calendar kicked off with initial jobless claims (200k, about as expected) and continuing jobless claims (1.697 million) and offers up existing home sales for October, a Treasury auction of $25 billion in 30-year bonds, and remarks from a laundry list of Fed speakers (Chicago President Goolsbee, Cleveland President Hammack, San Francisco President Daly, Kansas City President Schmid, and New York President Williams). Thursday starts with Agency MBS prices little changed from Tuesday, the 2-year yielding 4.81, and the 10-year yielding 5.05 after closing Tuesday at 4.98 percent… The job market continues to be strong.