Certainly the cost gap between renting and owning is widening, and the press is filled with stories that our borrowers see, and MLOs should read, like, “Rent vs. Buy: Is Renting Cheaper Than Buying a Home?” or “Rent or buy? How long it takes for buying a home to pay off in each metro.” Today at 11AM PT on L1’s Mortgage Matters, Developer’s Mortgage COO Taylor Stork discusses lender challenges. Lenders are scrambling to target borrowers “at the top of the funnel, and today at noon PT the Credit Committee, presented by Equifax, David Hadaway, the CEO of Altair Data Resources, to discuss how pre-screen credit data is transforming borrower acquisition. The conversation explores precision targeting, lead quality, and strategies lenders can use to improve conversion while reducing acquisition costs. (Today’s podcast can be found here… this week’s ‘casts are sponsored by Zillow Home Loans, Zillow’s in-house mortgage lender. By integrating Zillow’s real estate platform with financing, Zillow Home Loans helps buyers move from dreaming about a home to holding the keys, and loan officers focus on guiding buyers with care and confidence. Today’s has an interview with JPMorgan Chase’s Olivia Barrow Strauss on today's housing policy landscape, examining why the U.S. continues to underbuild homes, how smart policy can expand supply and lower costs, and what the passage of the ROAD to Housing Act could mean for the future of housing affordability.)
Lender and Broker Software, Products, and Services
Klarna replaced 700 customer service employees with AI in early 2024, then began rehiring humans 15 months later. Amazon cut 14,000 roles citing AI in late 2025 and reversed course within days. After eliminating 4,000 positions in early 2025, Salesforce’s CEO called blaming AI “a lazy way out.” For the largest financial transaction of most borrowers’ lives, the AI-as-replacement argument in mortgage was always more theoretical than practical. Floify never bought into it, advocating AI works best as a layer of intelligent assistance that makes loan officers faster, more accurate and better equipped. Floify’s Courtney Dodd lays out the case for what AI should look like in production and why vendors positioning agentic AI as the future of origination are really asking lenders to become test cases in one of the most regulated industries in the country. See how Floify’s Dynamic AI empowers loan officers rather than replaces them.
Market tested. Industry trusted. For nearly 70 years, MGIC has consistently shown up with unmatched commitment and integrity, delivering disciplined risk management, competitively priced MI solutions, and a steady performance that protects and strengthens your position. MGIC is a proven MI partner, offering lenders insightful guidance and forward-thinking MI solutions in all kinds of markets. Partner with an authentic MI company grounded in decades of experience and built for resilience. Check out more reasons to partner with MGIC. Authentically MGIC.
“Blue Water Financial Technologies… With VAULT (Verified Asset & Universal Loan Transfer), Blue Water Financial Technologies delivers an IDP platform purpose-built for mortgage and financial workflows helping teams move from manual document review to structured, standardized, decision-ready data. We offer unlimited scaling; AI review partnered with Machine Learning Algorithms developed over the last 7 years of real-world mortgage production. Contact Michael Bender. Learn more here.
The IRS is retiring the FIRE system for tax year 2026, replacing it with the new Information Returns Intake System (IRIS) for year-end reporting. This shift brings new technical requirements, including Transmitter Control Codes, XML-based filing formats and mandatory testing before servicers can submit live data. It takes time, thought and preparation to navigate regulatory changes like this because compliance isn’t a feature. . . it’s foundational. ICE stays in active communication with regulators, GSEs and the FHFA as requirements evolve and is committed to delivering enhancements early so clients have time to implement, test and prepare well ahead of IRS deadlines. Read the blog to learn what servicers need to do now to get ready for the IRIS transition.
Asset Based Lending (ABL) has been garnering more attention for one simple reason: they continue to deliver. In a market where consistency matters as much as pricing, brokers need lending partners they can count on. ABL has continued to build momentum through steady growth, strong execution, and a broker-first approach that has earned respect throughout the industry. That reputation received another boost when CEO Kevin Rodman was recently named one of Mortgage Banker's 2026 Legends of Lending, recognizing the leadership that is helping drive the company's continued success. Good partners don't just perform when conditions are easy… They show up every day. That's exactly why ABL continues to stand out. Reach out to the ABL team today to see how they're helping brokers move deals forward with confidence. Or learn more about ABL.
Truework, a Checkr Company, is the unified income, employment, and asset verification platform built for mortgage lenders, replacing slow, manual processes with fast and automated reports pulled directly from payroll providers and other authoritative data sources. Lenders see up to 50 percent cost savings on verifications, with faster turn times and higher accuracy. Trusted by 4 of the top 5 lenders in the US, Truework delivers verification results your team can rely on. Learn more.
Home equity is having a moment, and it's no accident. In his latest blog, Covius Chief Business Officers Pete Pannes breaks down how 2026 is playing out, including how HELOCs and closed-end seconds continue to have the wind at their backs, what lenders are doing to capture every available deal and why investing in technology is “in” again. The blog also reviews aspects of the Covius Home Equity Product Suite, which helps lenders win the home equity race with near-instant title decisioning at the point of sale. The suite brings together multiple property reporting options, a full valuation stack (AVMs, hybrids, appraisals) and national title/closing services through a single point of access. See how Covius is solving for this year’s market and helping lenders rig for what’s ahead. Learn more.
“The best conversations in mortgage lending never happen on stage. They happen in the hallways, over coffee, and after the meeting ends. That is where ideas are challenged, lessons are shared, and the honest conversations shaping our industry truly happen. We have been paying attention, and that is exactly why we created Hit the MARC, hosted by Scott Weintraub! Hit the MARC is MQMR’s new executive conversation series featuring candid discussions with the leaders, innovators, and relationship builders shaping the mortgage industry. There are no scripts and no sales pitches, just real conversations and practical insights. We are asking the questions everyone wants answered. Think about who belongs on your Mortgage Industry Mount Rushmore, if you had thirty minutes with them, what would you ask? Our first episode is coming soon. Stay tuned and follow MQMR.”
The Chrisman Marketplace is a centralized hub for vendors and service providers across the industry to be viewed by lenders in a very cost-effective manner. We’re adding new providers daily, so check back often to see what’s new. To reserve your place or learn more, contact us at info@chrismancommentary.com.
Is Your Company Ready for a Different Housing Demand?
Brian Vieaux, the President of MISMO, shot me a note talking about demographics and how they may impact lenders. “For more than a decade, the housing conversation has been remarkably consistent. We don't have enough homes. Builders aren't building enough. The solution appeared simple: build more housing. That narrative has shaped policy, planning, and lending strategy since the Great Financial Crisis. But what if the next decade looks fundamentally different?
“That's the question posed in the Mortgage Bankers Association's new white paper, Implications of a Persistent Slowing in Housing Demand. Rather than focusing only on today's affordability challenges, the research examines the long-term demographic forces that will shape housing demand in the years ahead. When I spoke with MBA Chief Economist Mike Fratantoni, he emphasized an important distinction. ‘The housing shortage story accurately described much of the last decade. The question now is whether those same forces will continue to drive housing demand at the same pace in the future.’
“According to the research, household formation is expected to slow as the population ages, birth rates remain below replacement levels, younger generations are smaller than Millennials, and immigration trends shift. At the same time, years of elevated construction and a gradual transfer of homes from Baby Boomers could increase available housing inventory. The result isn't necessarily a national housing surplus. It's a market where supply and demand may become much better balanced, with meaningful regional differences. Some markets could continue facing supply constraints while others experience inventory growth that outpaces demand.
“For lenders, this changes the conversation from business models built around assumptions of continued home price appreciation and ever-growing purchase demand to a focus on operational efficiency, market share, and engaging borrowers earlier in their homeownership journey. One observation from Mike particularly stood out to me. ‘The housing market responds to demographics over long periods of time. Mortgage rates influence timing. Demographics influence demand.’
“Rates will always matter but demographics shaped the market for decades. This white paper isn't predicting the end of housing demand. It's encouraging the industry to begin asking different questions about where future demand will come from and how we prepare for it. The organizations that recognize these demographic shifts first may be the ones best positioned for the next chapter of housing finance.” Thank you, Brian.
Read the full VieauxPoint article for a deeper look at MBA's research and what it could mean for the future of mortgage lending.
Don’t Forget the Fed’s Balance Sheet
The Federal Reserve continues to make slow but steady progress toward its long-stated goal of returning to an all-Treasury balance sheet, with Agency MBS holdings declining by $17.7 billion in June (the fastest monthly runoff in a year) as legacy low-coupon securities gradually roll off. While the Fed's balance sheet is unlikely to return to its pre-quantitative easing size given its ongoing role in money markets, its mortgage holdings have already fallen roughly 28 percent from their 2022 peak and should continue shrinking over time through passive runoff rather than active sales. With the bulk of those holdings concentrated in deeply out-of-the-money low-coupon MBS, rapid prepayments remain unlikely, particularly as higher Treasury yields and mortgage rates have sharply reduced refinancing activity. Refinance applications have fallen dramatically since the recent rise in rates, reinforcing expectations that the Fed's exit from Agency MBS will remain a gradual, years-long process rather than a meaningful source of near-term market pressure.
The Fed also created task forces to review and potentially improve its monetary policy framework, focusing on communication, the balance sheet, data quality, productivity and employment, and inflation, as the economy and policy challenges evolve. Chairman Warsh has emphasized the Fed's commitment to price stability and maximum employment while acknowledging the need to modernize its analytical tools, particularly as declining survey response rates reduce the reliability of key economic data. Markets will closely watch Warsh's congressional testimony this week for clues on whether the Fed will adopt a less transparent communication style (the Minutes from his first meeting remained very transparent), while housing affordability is expected to be a key topic on Capitol Hill despite the limited ability of monetary policy to reverse the effects of past low-rate policies on home prices.
Capital Markets
U.S. Treasuries and Agency MBS rebounded after two days of losses in the wake of a softer-than-expected June CPI report, featuring unexpected headline deflation (-0.4 percent month-over-month) and flat core inflation. A 5.7 percent month-over-month decline in energy prices drove the monthly drop in June. Annual inflation is still above target and renewed geopolitical tensions are threatening higher energy prices; accordingly, markets expect the disinflation trend to prove temporary. And despite the lowest CPI inflation reading since 2020, there is still broader global bond market weakness and ongoing policy uncertainty to contend with. In his first semiannual congressional testimony, Fed Chair Warsh reaffirmed the Fed's commitment to restoring price stability while offering few policy surprises, signaling that future decisions will continue to be guided by inflation data and the work of the Fed's newly established policy task forces. What looked like a 40-60 chance of a rate hike this month now faces longer odds, post-CPI. That sentiment is at odds with markets increasingly pricing in tighter monetary policy until there is meaningful progress on reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Keep in mind that PCE, the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation, averages about a quarter percentage point below CPI year-over-year.
As re-escalation of the Iran conflict has pushed U.S. energy prices modestly higher, potentially obstructing further progress toward lower inflation, TBA spreads have widened as higher rates reduce refinancing incentives, extending mortgage durations, and triggering convexity hedging, leading to broader mortgage rate reprices. Trading has shifted from normal roll activity toward outright hedging and volatility management; weakness of late has been driven more by extension risk than by mortgage basis fundamentals.
Today’s economic calendar kicked off with mortgage applications from MBA falling 2.7 percent last week as the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate climbed to 6.65 percent, its highest level since August 2025, weighing on overall borrowing activity. While refinance applications rose 4 percent from the prior week and remained above year-ago levels, purchase applications declined 7 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis, reflecting continued affordability pressures.
After yesterday’s CPI report, we’ve now received June PPI (-.3 percent versus 0.1 percent expectations and a prior reading of 1.1 percent, +5.5 percent Y-o-Y), June Core PPI (+.2 percent versus 0.4 percent expectations and a prior reading of 0.4 percent, +4.7 percent Y-o-Y), and July Empire State Manufacturing survey. Other items of note today include the July Fed Beige Book, and remarks from Fed Governor Cook and New York Fed President Williams. After the inflation data, Agency MBS prices are roughly unchanged from Tuesday’s close, the 2-year is yielding 4.18, and the 10-year is yielding 4.58 after closing yesterday at 4.59 percent.
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