We find ourselves in the 3rd quarter of 2026. The stock market has made the headlines, but between a) the reduction in the number of publicly held companies, and b) the weight given to AI-related stocks, it is worth reminding everyone that the stock market is not the economy. Economies are complex, as are countries. Did you know that more Europeans die each year from summer heat than Americans die from gun violence? Over 1,000 recently in France; 1,500 deaths in Western Europe are being attributed to the climate. Returning to this country, there are six state capitals West of Los Angeles. (You don’t need my help in naming them.) There is plenty to like about this country: Building materials giant Saint-Gobain continues to expand its U.S. footprint and has invested nearly $7 billion in North America since 2021, deploying prefab systems that can reduce build times 30-50 percent while avoiding tariff exposure. Where there’s a will there’s a way. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s ‘casts are sponsored by Experian. From lenders and landlords to employers and consumers, Experian helps connect the housing ecosystem with the data and insights needed to make faster, confident decisions. Lead a smarter housing journey with Experian. Today’s has an interview with PennyMac’s Isaac Boltansky on key federal policy developments shaping the housing market and broader U.S. economy.)
Broker and Lender Software, Products, and Services
What if your next conventional loan closed faster and saved your borrower up to $200? With Fetch & Close, eligible conventional loans move through employment and income validation automatically, with no changes to your process. Simply submit your loan as usual. If it qualifies, Fetch & Close reduces manual touchpoints, minimizes opportunities for error, and helps accelerate the path to closing. Eligible borrowers can also receive waived VOE/I fees, saving up to $200. Less work for you. Faster closings for your borrowers. Better results for everyone. Ready to close smarter? Connect with your Kind Account Executive today to learn more! Not an approved broker? Join the Kind movement and discover why more brokers are choosing Kind. Not all loans are eligible. Eligibility is based on LP AUS findings.
“Master Non-QM with Pennymac TPO: Live Webinar on July 14! Are you turning away creditworthy borrowers because they don’t fit the traditional lending box? Getting started in the non-QM space can feel daunting, but it’s one of the best ways to grow your volume in today's market. Let Pennymac TPO help you bridge the gap. Join our live webinar on July 14th at 10 AM PT/1 PM ET for an overview of our non-QM product suite. Learn how to easily navigate these solutions, identify potential borrowers, and seamlessly add non-QM to your toolkit. Save your seat today, contact your Pennymac TPO Account Executive, or become a partner to learn more. (Equal Housing Lender, NMLS #35953)”
Automating individual tasks isn't the same as transforming mortgage operations. Real efficiency comes from connecting people, policies, systems, and decisions across the entire loan lifecycle. JazzX AI creates a governed intelligence layer that orchestrates work from application through post-close - without replacing your LOS. See how leading lenders are reducing cost per loan and increasing throughput. Book a demo with our team to see JazzX in action.
“For more than 35 years, AllRegs by ICE Mortgage Technology has given mortgage professionals a single source for federal and state guidelines, agency requirements, and compliance best practices. AllRegs’ Ask Regi, its AI-powered search feature, goes a step further, letting your team ask plain-language questions and get cited, actionable answers in seconds. Our Deputy Chief Compliance Officer recently wrote about what it takes to build a compliance management system that holds up as requirements change, and how tools like AllRegs fit into that picture. Read the blog now.”
“Your borrowers experience your brand every time they interact with your servicer. Make it count. A frustrating payment portal, an unanswered call, a borrower left without answers… those aren't servicing failures. They're brand failures. And they're yours to own. MSF Servicing delivers a modern mobile experience with real-time account access, seamless payment tracking, and self-service tools available in 200+ languages. Intuitive. Accessible. Built around the borrower's convenience, and the integrity of your brand. Your borrower relationship is worth protecting. We take that seriously. MSF Servicing. Premier servicing. Personal accountability. See the borrower experience: Rick Smith (860-989-9006).
Elevate your accounting function today! As an independent mortgage bank or broker, your focus should be on growth, not accounting headaches. Whether you have no accounting expertise in-house or you have a new team with no mortgage experience, you can lean on the Richey May team for the support you need. This team is stacked with mortgage industry experts who can tailor your solution to meet your most pressing needs with no training needed. Need help transitioning to loan-level accounting? Need a fully outsourced function? You got it! Need industry training for your controller? We can do that. Contact Richey May today to get started on the solution that fits your business.
The Chrisman Marketplace is a centralized hub for vendors and service providers across the industry to be viewed by lenders in a very cost-effective manner. We’re adding new providers daily, so check back often to see what’s new. To reserve your place or learn more, contact us at info@chrismancommentary.com.
Trust Matters Between Borrowers and Lenders
Everyone in mortgage is talking about AI, but are borrowers actually using it to choose a lender? According to STRATMOR's latest MortgageCX data, not really. Less than 2 percent of refinance borrowers and just 4 percent of purchase borrowers found their lender through online search, reviews, or AI recommendations combined. Instead, nearly 90% still selected their lender through referrals, existing relationships, or prior experience. In his latest CX Tip, STRATMOR Director of Customer Experience Mike Seminari explores what this disconnect means for lenders. While AI may eventually reshape borrower discovery, today's business is still being driven by trust, relationships, and customer experience. The message for lenders: Don't ignore AI, but don't neglect the referral networks and borrower experiences that continue to drive growth. Read “Protect Your Turf: The AI Battle Starts Now”
Approaching Webcasts and Video Shows
Today at 11AM PT is Mortgage Matters. Sponsored by Lenders One, Garreth Long, SVP of Title, Trustee and Valuations at Altisource will discuss title, valuations, and operational strategy that lenders should be cognizant of. The conversation focuses on driving efficiency, improving borrower experiences, and positioning organizations for long term success.
Also today, but at noon PT, is The AI Show sponsored by JazzX AI. Rebecca Seward, Brooke Anderson Tompkins, Jagjit Singh, Mike Hogan, and Tela Gallagher Mathias examine the realities of AI adoption beyond the hype. The panel explores workforce readiness, governance, implementation challenges, and what it takes to move from experimentation to execution.
Big Picture tomorrow at noon PT features Kim Nelson, the founder and CEO of BankSouth Mortgage discussing leadership and where her attention is focused going forward.
CRA Statistics: Buyers and Sellers Take Note
Federal bank regulatory agencies released the 2026 list of certain geographies where certain bank activities are eligible for Community Reinvestment Act (CRA) credit. Under the CRA, the agencies assess a bank’s record of meeting the credit needs of its entire community, including low- and moderate-income neighborhoods, consistent with safe and sound operations. The list released by the agencies includes distressed or underserved nonmetropolitan middle-income geographies where revitalization or stabilization activities are eligible to receive CRA consideration. The designations reflect local economic conditions, including unemployment, poverty, and population changes. Previous years’ lists and criteria for designating these areas are available here.
Company-Sponsored Research on our Industry
Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. (aka, ICE in the mortgage world) released the May 2026 ICE First Look at mortgage performance trends. The analysis found that “while overall mortgage delinquencies increased modestly in May, the rise was largely driven by calendar-related factors rather than broad-based deterioration in mortgage performance. “While the headline increase in delinquencies may draw attention, the underlying performance picture is stable as delinquencies remain below January 2020 levels,” said Andy Walden, Head of Mortgage and Housing Market Research at ICE. “The rise in early-stage delinquencies and the month-over-month decline in cures were largely driven by the Sunday month-end, which causes many mortgage payments to be processed the following business day. The more important trend to watch remains the continued growth in serious delinquencies and active foreclosures, particularly among FHA loans.”
"Overall mortgage performance remains healthy, yet the level of serious delinquencies and active foreclosures highlights the importance of reaching borrowers early," said Bob Hart, President of Mortgage Technology at ICE. "As loss mitigation volumes increase, servicers need technology that helps them quickly connect with homeowners experiencing financial hardship, streamline workout decisions and support consistent execution of workout plans from first contact through resolution. ICE's Loss Mitigation solution helps servicers scale those efforts while supporting compliance and improving outcomes for both homeowners and investors."
LodeStar Software Solutions, on the other hand, took a look at closing costs: view the full report here.
LodeStar Software Solutions published its 2024 vs. 2025 Year-Over-Year Mortgage Closing Cost Report, analyzing distinct mortgage quotes across all 50 states and D.C. Nationally, average purchase closing costs edged down from $4,661 to $4,528. “The driver wasn’t a change in lender fees but rather falling home prices, which reduced state and local transfer tax burdens.” But the national average tells only part of the story: 28 states saw costs fall, while 23 saw them rise.
“Where you live determines what you pay dramatically. D.C. buyers averaged $13,836 in closing costs; buyers in the cheapest Midwest and Plains states paid a fraction of that. D.C.'s figure actually fell $3,708 year-over-year as home prices there dropped ~$119,000 on average. Refinancing is far cheaper nationally...except in New York. The average refinance closing cost was $2,207. New York borrowers paid $10,553, because the state's mortgage recording tax applies to refinances at the same rate as home purchases, even though no property is changing hands. Florida is also a refinance outlier. At $5,250 average, Florida's refi costs are more than double the national average due to a tax assessed on the new loan amount.”
Capital Markets
Price down, yield up. Mortgage-backed securities and U.S. Treasuries declined in price Tuesday, though yields ended June with 10- and 30-year yields below where they started the month. Markets were influenced by stronger-than-expected Chinese economic data, cooler-than-expected inflation readings in major European economies, and ongoing expectations that interest rates will stay higher for longer, with the possibility of another rate hike before the end of 2026. Generally speaking, quarter-end trading was shaped by a combination of easing inflation fears, lingering geopolitical uncertainty, and growing confidence that the Federal Reserve is more likely to remain patient than markets currently expect.
Headline inflation has eased with lower energy prices, but persistent core inflation is keeping the Fed cautious; markets expect policymakers to wait for more employment and inflation data before deciding on any additional rate hikes. Fixed-income markets have been supported by quarter-end portfolio rebalancing, while geopolitical tensions and the Supreme Court's decision affirming Federal Reserve independence had only limited and short-lived effects on Treasury yields. Investors remain caught between improving inflation trends and lingering underlying price pressures, making upcoming economic data the key driver of (short-term) interest rate expectations in the weeks ahead.
We learned yesterday that consumer confidence edged higher in June only after a downward revision to May's reading, business activity moderated, job openings remained relatively stable, and home price growth continued to cool without meaningfully improving affordability. While national housing appreciation has slowed and the FHFA index showed a slight monthly decline, home values remain stubbornly resilient, with growing regional disparities (i.e., weaker markets in the South and Southwest versus stronger, higher-cost markets). Geography and loan size continue to play an important role in mortgage-backed securities (MBS) performance. Overall, the economy seems to be gradually losing momentum, but not deteriorating sharply, the fabled "soft landing."
Today’s economic calendar kicked off with mortgage applications from MBA, which were essentially unchanged for the week ending June 26, as purchase activity increased while refinance applications dipped slightly. Purchase applications rose 1 percent from the previous week and were 3 percent higher than a year ago, while refinance applications fell 1 percent week over week but remained 9 percent above year-ago levels as mortgage rates eased slightly.
Ahead of payrolls tomorrow, we’ve also received June ADP Employment Change: U.S.-based employers announced 45,849 job cuts in June, down 53 percent from the 97,006 cuts announced in May. June’s total is down 4 percent from the 47,999 cuts announced in the same month last year and marks the lowest monthly total since December 2025. Later today brings Final June S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI, May Construction Spending, and June ISM Manufacturing Index. We begin Wednesday with Agency MBS prices worse about .250 from Tuesday’s close, the 2-year yielding 4.18, and the 10-year yielding 4.49 after closing yesterday at 4.42 percent, down 3-basis points in June, but up 11-basis points in Q2.
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