There’s an old saying among economists regarding predicting the future. “You can put a date on it, and you can put a number on it, but you can’t do both.” Sure there will be a recession, eventually. Just like there will be more expansion, at some point. And the past is not always a reliable indicator of the future. But for those out there who watch rates, and wondered where they were in, say, 1650, ex-LO Carol K. was nice enough to send along this historical graph which is pretty cool. Just be thankful you're not in politics, right? Interesting news from yesterday from Fox News that "President Trump's 2020 reelection campaign will no longer issue credentials to Bloomberg News because of its decision to investigate Trump, but not his political opponents, campaign manager Brad Parscale announced Monday."
Lender products & services
New podcast! "You've loved its eBooks, you've binged its blog posts, and now, by popular demand, the Maxwell team has released its brand new podcast, "Clear to Close"! Each episode of Clear to Close presents a no-BS, unbiased take on the issues impacting the mortgage world featuring topical deep-dives and exclusive interviews with industry thought leaders. In episode one, Bryan and Alan sit down with HousingWire CEO and President Clayton Collins to discuss his passion for financial education, entrepreneurial challenges, and what he's learned from running a thriving media company. Stream, download, and subscribe to Clear to Close now on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and Soundcloud (or wherever you get your podcasts). A must listen!"
Developing lifetime customer relationships is a huge focus for many lenders. The leading brands are leveraging the latest and greatest technology to humanize the customer experience, anticipate their customers' needs, and educate them throughout their financial journey. But, what about recruiting and retaining top producers to bring this all to life? How do you go about recruiting the best of the best and set them up for success with the right tech stack? It's essential your employees not only feel valued, but also know their employer will provide them with the resources they need to grow the business. Total Expert Founder & CEO Joe Welu outlines key investments to make in your people and your technology to pave your organization's way to increased retention and growth. Read the full article, "It's What's Inside That Counts: Why Your Internal Marketing Matters."
Streamline Your Recruiting - Model Match helps forward-thinking mortgage professionals manage and grow their recruiting pipeline with greater efficiency. Model Match's Talent Management System (TMS) is the infrastructure and provides teams of all sizes an easy yet powerful way to collaborate and track their efforts. If you're not sure who to recruit, Market Insights will help you develop a healthy pipeline of qualified candidates that are matched to the needs of your organization. Match originators based on volume requirements, product mix and more. Get a birds eye view of their production history along with all the info you need to make contact today. Level up with Team Hammerhouse powered by Model Match. We've reimagined mortgage recruiting and deployed a full-service partnership combining the trust and experience of Team Hammerhouse with the efficiencies and visibility of the Model Match TMS. Visit us HERE to learn more and connect with our team.
Single-family Rental or vacation rental? Visio Lending is the nation's leader in Non-QM loans for buy and hold SFR rentals. A proven lender with over 6,000 closed loans. With direct access to Wall Street, having just completed our fifth securitization, we offer the most attractive terms and the fastest, simplest and most dependable process in the country. Check us out today and learn why thousands of satisfied customers and brokers choose Visio for all of their SFR rental needs.
Looking to grow your Single Close Construction business for FHA, VA, USDA and FNMA? Then look to partner with GSF Mortgage Corporation (GSF). Lenders, brokers, and builders are seeing the advantage of working with GSF, helping set a record month of production. All options allow for maximum LTV's, including FNMA at a 95% LTV. No re-qualifying after initial closing for the borrower. Every step of the process is handled internally, meaning no third party. Your builder will be vetted within 7 days by GSF. Your loan scenario and structure is calculated same day by GSF's team of Construction Resource Specialists. All draws are handled by GSF. Is your builder looking for an advance at the closing table? No problem. Is your borrower worried about their rate at the time of modification? No worries, our float down option at modification will provide piece of mind. Contact Robert Stephens to learn more.
Are your customers talking refi? That's going around. Home Point Financial has a refi and reno (or purchase and reno!) product all rolled into one for maximum convenience. With Home Point Renovation Lending, buyers have the flexibility to finance larger repairs and upgrades cost-effectively. They combine a complete renovation loan product suite with process knowledge and dedicated specialists to make home improvement projects possible for buyers who otherwise could not afford them. Check out the video here, or partner with Home Point today.
KBW reports that world of "PropTech" (aka property transaction technology), M&A activity remains robust and consolidation within sector verticals appears to be accelerating. "We estimate 32 M&A announcements in 3Q (vs. an average of 29 deals over the last six quarters). YTD, we estimate 108 deal announcements. In our coverage, CSGP and RP in particular remain highly acquisitive, with both companies recently announcing $450-$580 mil. deals. Evidencing continued strong deal activity, 96% of investors expect more or the same amount of PropTech M&A over the next 12 months, an all-time high and up from 86% a year ago (according to a MetaProp survey)."
In the "old fashioned" world of bank mergers and acquisitions, the Old Line Bank Mortgage Team is now with WesBanco in the Mid-Atlantic region. And this morning it was announced that Columbia Bank, MHC, Columbia Financial, Inc. (NASDAQ: CLBK) and Columbia Bank, and RSB Bancorp, MHC, RSB Bancorp, Inc. and Roselle Bank the signing of a definitive merger agreement.
Some companies aren't acquired, or don't merge, but those that do are included in this stat. An analysis of 569,419 businesses launched in March 1994 found that just 435,134 made it to the end of 1995, 257,488 lasted until 2000 and by the time it got to 2019, just 94,391 of the businesses were still kicking. That's a 25-year survival rate of just 16.6 percent.
Training & events
MBA Webinars are always complimentary to MBA members. Registration is open for the following: Tuesday, December 3rd - 12:30-2:00 MISMO Monthly: Decision Model and Notation (DMN). Thursday, December 5th - 2:30-3:30 Complying with the Taxpayer First Act Utilizing MISMO. Tuesday, January 14th - 2-3:30 Ten Things Your Company Must Do in 2020. Use promo code WEBINAR at checkout to access your discount.
Genworth Mortgage Insurance provides complimentary courses to help customers manage, protect and grow their business, delivering you-centric solutions that matter. Register for the new Cyber Security course presented by That MI Guy, Understanding the Secondary Market, or Fannie Mae's HomeStyle® Renovation; all designed to help you put the wow in your now. View the Genworth December Training Calendar.
The Plaza Home Mortgage December Webinar Calendar includes training on topics such as Credit, Fraud, Income, Sales and Communication. Registration is open for all December webinars.
Access the Franklin American Mortgage December Wholesale Customer Training Calendar
for a variety of training opportunities such as: Seizing Market Share, Cyber Security, How to Review an Appraisal, 7 Ways to Manage Email, Avoid Inbox Overload & Control Your Workday and Digital Disruption - Embracing Tech in Real Estate.
Freddie Mac's free Real Estate Professionals Winter Webinar Series will cover affordable products and solutions that will help transition homebuyers into homeowners. Register for the first webinar in the series on December 4th.
On December 4th in Phoenix, MBA's Whole Loan Trading Workshop offers expert insight on the buying and selling of whole loans. In the new year, February 3-6, the largest gathering of IMB professionals will convene in New Orleans at MBA's Independent Mortgage Bankers Conference.
Yes, the MBA has a free webinar on MISMO on December 5. MISMO created Taxpayer Consent Language to help industry comply with the law. MISMO also provided implementation guidance and Frequently Asked Questions. Everyone in the industry may use the language free of charge. The press release is available at this link.
The AmeriHome underwriting management team will be offering a Core Jumbo webinar on December 10. The webinar will Discuss the latest changes to the Core Jumbo Program Guide, Review Core Jumbo guidelines and Provide best practices for underwriting Core Jumbo loan transactions. For registration information, see the announcement on SellerWeb.
Jingle and Mingle on December 5th in San Jose, CA, from 11AM-2PM the Silicon Valley Chapter of CAMP has its annual luncheon featuring Dave Cortese (on the Santa Clara Board of Supervisors) and yours truly. If you're in the area, come on by Maggiano's Little Italy.
Holiday Mixer with the South Los Angeles and Orange County CAMP Chapters! The event is December 11th at Acapulco Restaurant 6270 Pacific Coast Highway, Long Beach, CA 90803 from 5:30-8:30. Sponsors include Civic, PRMG, HighTech Lending, Loan Depot, Angle Oak and Class Valuation. There will be light appetizers and drink tickets. The event is free provided anyone attending bring a $20.00 unwrapped gift for Toys for Tots, and one can RSVP at firstname.lastname@example.org.
And CAMP is offering a "1099 vs W2 Rule" webinar on December 10th.
The big action Monday happened in the bond market with rates on government debt jumping all over the world. One contributing factor was a surprise jolt to German domestic politics as Germany's SPD named new leaders, fueling worries that the "grand coalition" with Angela Merkel's CDU could be in jeopardy.
U.S. Treasuries began the week on a lower note, largely due to news out of China. China's November Manufacturing PMI rose back into expansionary territory, beating estimates, as did November Non-Manufacturing PMI and the November Caixin Manufacturing PMI, while November Manufacturing PMI readings from the eurozone were slightly better than expected. The batch of positive manufacturing data spurred some hopes that global economic growth may rebound soon, but the mid-morning release of a disappointing ISM Manufacturing Index for the U.S. (it missed expectations) offered some pushback for those hopes. It was the fourth straight month of the New Orders Index declining, reflecting ongoing weakness in the U.S. manufacturing sector.
Markets reacted more to current economic releases than to trade rhetoric, which will please some. In fact, China sought to avoid trade-related matters when it retaliated against the U.S. over a new law passed by Congress supporting Hong Kong's democracy protesters, instead vowing to sanction some rights organizations and halt warship visits to the city. China likely wanted to avoid any tit-for-tat tariff increases, China's priority in securing a partial trade deal is to remove existing import tariffs. U.S. Secretary of Commerce Ross said that tariffs on imports from China will be increased if the two sides are unable to reach a trade deal.
President Trump tweeted that tariffs on steel and aluminum imports from Argentina and Brazil will be restored. The move amounts to retaliation against two nations that have become big suppliers of soybeans to China, grabbing market share away from the U.S. during Trump's trade war. And even though China did not directly retaliate to Trump's signing of the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act last week, reports are that the trade deal with China is now "stalled" due to the act's recent passage.
Finally, part of the retreat in Treasuries was caused by a report that the Fed may implement a rule that would allow inflation measures to exceed the current 2.0 percent target. And domestically, total construction spending declined in October when it was expected to increase. This comes on the heels of a downwardly revised figure in September to a negative from a positive. Private construction spending remains negative over the last year, driven by both negative nonresidential spending and negative commercial spending over that same time period. The 10-year Treasury note ended the day +6 bps to 1.84 percent.
As far as mortgage-backed securities were concerned, UMBS 2.5 percent through 4.5 percent settled 1+ to 7+ lower, with spreads mixed as 2.5 percent and 3 percent were 1+ and 0+ tighter. 3.5 percent through 4.5 percent were either side of unchanged versus the treasury curve. Versus the swap curve, spreads closed fractionally tighter except for 4 percent, which were a tad wider.
Today's calendar is the lightest of the week with just the non-market moving Redbook same store sales for the week ending November 30 here shortly. We begin today with Agency MBS prices up .125 and the 10-year yielding 1.79%.
Caliber Home Loans, Inc. Chief Executive Officer Sanjiv Das was invited to appear on CNBC recently. Yesterday, December 2ndhe discussed housing market trends with CNBC on its show, Closing Bell, to discuss housing market trends. That morning Housing Wire announced CEO Sanjiv Das as a winner of its 2019 Vanguard Award, for his professional accomplishments in the last 12 months and his leadership skills. This afternoon, you can watch Sanjiv on Bloomberg TV, Daybreak Americas. Consider a new career at Caliber! Visit www.joincalibernow.com or email Brian Miller to learn more about producing at Caliber.