The Trend is Friendly For Now A common financial market quip is that the "trend is your friend."  We like to add the addendum: "until it's not anymore."  All we can know for sure is that bonds have shifted from range-bound to trending lower in yield over the past 3-4 days and today was just another confirmation of that shift.  What we can't know is when the next show of resistance will happen and whether that will merely be a speed bump before additional gains, or a sign to circle the wagons and get sideways again.  Data wasn't necessarily a huge factor in today's improvement although it didn't hurt. Bonds have an underlying vigor for other reasons, as evidenced by a solid 7yr Treasury auction today, despite yields being at the lowest levels in more than a month. Today's video discusses some possible reasons for that.  Econ Data / Events Jobless Claims 236k vs 245k f'cast, 246k prev Continued Claims 1974k vs 1950k f'cast, 1937k prev GDP  -0.5 vs -0.2 f'cast Durable goods 16.4 vs 8.5 f'cast, -6.6 prev Durables ex defense/aircraft  1.7 vs 0.1 f'cast, -1.3 prev Market Movement Recap 08:39 AM Bonds have moved just a hair weaker in response with MBS back to unchanged after being up 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr back to unchanged after being down just over 1bp at 4.283. 09:16 AM Quick reversal back into positive territory.  MBS up 4 ticks (.125) and 10yr down 2.4bps at 4.265 12:32 PM Best levels of the day ahead of 7yr auction.  MBS up 7 ticks (.22) and 10yr down 2.4bps at 4.265 03:21 PM Best levels of the day with MBS up 9 ticks (.28) and 10yr yields down 3.6bps at 4.252

June 26, 2025 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: 30 Yr. Fixed 6.15% -0.02%   6.01% 7.13% 15 Yr. Fixed 5.72% -0.03%   5.55% 6.5% 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.33% -0.02%   6.1% 7.45% Compare Mortgage Rates from Local Lenders for Jun 26, 2025 Mortgage Rate Winning Streak Continues Thu, Jun 26, 2025 3:02PM After topping out on May 21st, the average day for mortgage rates has been a good one.  This has been especially true since June 6th with our 30yr fixed index moving down almost 0.25% through this afternoon. Today's gains contributed nicely with a drop of 0.07%. Normally, we'd point to the economic release calendar to help explain this sort of momentum.  There were numerous reports out this morning and several of them could be viewed as helpful for rates.  But when rates move lower in response to economic data, we tend to see at least some semblance of weakness in the stock mar... (read more) Mortgage News Daily Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.15% -0.02 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.72% -0.03 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 5.75% -0.05 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.33% -0.02 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 5.56% -0.03 0.00 30 Yr. VA 5.77% -0.04 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 2/6 Freddie Mac Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.11% +0.01 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.50% +0.01 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 2/5 Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.24% +0.08 0.55 15 Yr. Fixed 5.64% +0.09 0.61 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.34% -0.05 0.40 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 1/28 UMBS 30YR 5.0 100.05 +0.01   95.71 100.50 UMBS 30YR 5.5 101.49 +0.04   98.11 101.64 10 YR Treasury 4.213 +0.033   3.932 4.608 The Trend is Friendly For Now Thu, Jun 26, 2025 3:32PM The Trend is Friendly For Now A common financial market quip is that the "trend is your friend."  We like to add the addendum: "until it's not anymore."  All we can know for sure is that bonds have shifted from range-bound to trending lower in yield over the past 3-4 days and today was just another confirma... (read more) MBS Price Change UMBS 4.5 98.06 +0.03 UMBS 5.0 100.05 +0.01 UMBS 5.5 101.49 +0.04 GNMA 4.5 97.84 +0.10 GNMA 5.0 100.18 +0.11 GNMA 5.5 101.22 -0.02 Pricing as of: 2/7 12:31PM EST US Treasury Yield Change 2 YR Treasury 3.496 +0.044 5 YR Treasury 3.753 +0.036 7 YR Treasury 3.965 +0.026 10 YR Treasury 4.213 +0.033 30 YR Treasury 4.851 +0.006 Pricing as of: 2/7 12:31PM EST Other News Hedging, Processing, Community Lending, Servicing, Mortgage Intelligence Tools Thu, Jun 26, 2025 11:40AM “I've been experimenting with breeding racing deer. People have accused me of just trying to make a fast buck.” There are no fast bucks to be made in residential lending, and the correct compensation is a continuing topic. (A recent STRATMOR blog was titled, “Compensation is Still Lender’s Largest Expense.”) A veteran LO wrote, “My belief is that most LOs ca... (read more) Latest Video Allianz's Mohamed El-Erian weighs the economic impact on Trump replacing Fe... Jobless claims fall, GDP revised lower, durables orders soar Pending home sales May +1.1% year-over-year Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee: It's important to get clarity on imp... Around the Web Bloomberg US Economy: Jobless Claims Fall, 1Q GDP Revised to -0.5% Calculated Risk Blog Realtor.com Reports Most Active "For Sale" Inventory since December 2019 Calculated Risk Blog Inflation Adjusted House Prices 1.7% Below 2022 Peak; Price-to-rent index is 8.8% below 2022 peak CNBC Treasury yields fall as concerns grow over Trump's criticism of Powell Calculated Risk Blog NAR: Pending Home Sales Increase 1.8% in May; Up 1.1% YoY Marketwatch Jobless claims fall to 6-week low — no sign of surging layoffs Calculated Risk New Home Sales Decrease to 623,000 Annual Rate in May CNBC Mortgage rates and demand are stuck in a holding pattern Reuters Fed kicks off effort to ease bank leverage rules CNBC Divided Fed proposes rule to ease capital requirements for big Wall Street banks CNBC Watch Fed Chair Jerome Powell testify live before Senate banking panel CNBC U.S. crude oil trades below $65 after steep selloff following Israel-Iran ceasefire CNBC Treasury yields hold steady as investors monitor Israel-Iran ceasefire

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