Bonds Unexpectedly Forced to Focus on War Instead of Data Just 30 minutes before the month's most important week of economic data was about to hit its stride, headlines hit the newswires regarding an imminent missile attack on Israel.  While various iterations of such headlines are unfortunately common, these examples got the market's attention, resulting in a quick "flight to safety" trade (stock prices and bond yields moved lower).  When the AM econ data came out 30 minutes later, the impact on bonds was insignificant by comparison.  The initial flight to safety was unwound in the afternoon, but bonds remained in moderately stronger territory on the day. Econ Data / Events S&P Manufacturing PMI 47.3 vs 47.0 f'cast, 47.9 prev ISM Manufacturing 47.2 vs 47.5 f'cast, 47.2 prev ISM Prices Paid 48.3 vs 53.3 f'cast, 54.0 prev Job openings 8.04m vs 7.66m f'cast, 7.71m prev Job quits 3.084 vs 3.27m prev (lower is better for rates) Market Movement Recap 10:30 AM Flight to safety rally after Israel/Iran headlines and then flat after data.  MBS up 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr down 7.9bps at 3.704 01:03 PM strongest levels for MBS with 5.0 up a quarter point.  10yr down 7.2bps at 3.711 02:03 PM weakest levels now with MBS still up 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr down 4.4bps at 3.739 03:46 PM Off the weakest levels now.  MBS up an eighth and 10yr down 4.3bps at 3.74.

October 1, 2024 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: 30 Yr. Fixed 6.45% +0.04%   5.99% 7.08% 15 Yr. Fixed 6.02% +0.01%   5.55% 6.48% 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.60% +0.00%   6.1% 7.2% Compare Mortgage Rates from Local Lenders for Oct 1, 2024 Mortgage Rates Begin The Month With a Modest Victory Tue, Oct 1, 2024 4:04PM While the past 5 months have been well-stocked with victories for mortgage rates, the past week and a half brought a bit of a pull back.  Most of that upward momentum can be chalked up to rates rushing to get into position for the Fed's rate cut on September 18th.  It's actually quite a bit more complicated than that, but thankfully, the movement has been small enough that it doesn't demand a detailed explanation. In not so many words, the entire bond market had some "refiguring" to do after Fed day, and that process was pretty good for the shortest-term rates and mildly inconvenien... (read more) Mortgage News Daily Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.45% +0.04 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.02% +0.01 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 5.91% +0.03 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.60% 0.00 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 6.05% +0.03 0.00 30 Yr. VA 5.93% +0.03 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 4/3 Freddie Mac Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.46% +0.08 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.77% +0.02 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 4/2 Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.57% +0.14 0.65 15 Yr. Fixed 5.89% +0.06 0.75 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.59% +0.14 0.43 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 4/1 UMBS 30YR 5.0 98.66 -0.24   95.71 100.50 UMBS 30YR 5.5 100.52 -0.18   98.11 101.64 10 YR Treasury 4.341 +0.034   3.932 4.590 Bonds Unexpectedly Forced to Focus on War Instead of Data Tue, Oct 1, 2024 4:26PM Bonds Unexpectedly Forced to Focus on War Instead of Data Just 30 minutes before the month's most important week of economic data was about to hit its stride, headlines hit the newswires regarding an imminent missile attack on Israel.  While various iterations of such headlines are unfortunately common, these ex... (read more) MBS Price Change UMBS 4.5 96.56 -0.24 UMBS 5.0 98.66 -0.24 UMBS 5.5 100.52 -0.18 GNMA 4.5 96.49 -0.29 GNMA 5.0 99.13 -0.13 GNMA 5.5 100.75 -0.10 Pricing as of: 4/5 4:39AM EST US Treasury Yield Change 2 YR Treasury 3.845 +0.046 5 YR Treasury 3.984 +0.039 7 YR Treasury 4.198 +0.068 10 YR Treasury 4.341 +0.034 30 YR Treasury 4.916 +0.043 Pricing as of: 4/5 4:39AM EST Other News HELOC, Veteran's, Benchmarking, License Tracking Tools; FHA Changes; Podcast Interview with Fannie's Chief Economists Tue, Oct 1, 2024 11:42AM We find ourselves in the 4th quarter of 2024. October is here! Do you want to beat the rush for buying the Halloween candy that’s most popular in your state? Here’s the list. Skittles are the most popular in Georgia, where Jimmy Carter celebrates his 100th birthday. Topics here at the ACUMA event in Las Vegas include servicing values, longevity, and prepayme... (read more) Latest Video Here's how Iran's missile strikes could impact markets CFPB Director on credit card report: Many consumers would be better off wit... Job openings rise, manufacturing slips further It's entirely possible Jay Powell & the Fed pulled off a soft landing: Nort... Around the Web CNBC Real estate fees settlement created 'a new competitive ballgame, expert says. Here's what buyers, sellers need to know Marketwatch U.S. manufacturing activity contracts for the sixth straight month Eye on Housing Private Residential Construction Spending Falls for Third Straight Month MBA Accenture Credit Services’ Jason Wilborn: Are You One of 13? Eye on Housing Rebound for Construction Job Openings CNBC Treasury yields fall as investors look to fresh economic data Calculated Risk Blog BLS: Job Openings "Little Unchanged" at 8.0 million in August Calculated Risk Blog Fed Chair Powell: Economic Outlook American Bankers Assoc. Bank Economists: Soft Landing Remains Likely, But RisksRemain Marketwatch Chicago business-activity index remains in contraction territory for 10th straight month Calculated Risk Blog Freddie Mac House Price Index Increased Slightly in August; Up 3.7% Year-over-year CNBC U.S. crude oil drifts lower, trades below $68 per barrel despite war in Lebanon CNBC Euro zone inflation falls to 1.8% in September, below the European Central Bank's 2% target

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