Bonds Rattled By Surprisingly Big Beat in Spending Data Today's big surprise was the PCE price index component of Q1 GDP.  GDP itself was weaker than expected, but even that was explained away by components not related to private domestic consumption.  Focusing on the latter makes Q1 look just as strong as any of the past few quarters.  PCE did the most damage for two reasons.  It was MUCH higher than expected (3.7 vs 3.4) and that implies tomorrow's PCE data (a monthly version of today's quarterly report) is also at risk of coming in higher than expected.  This "sneak peek" effect is only a concern once per quarter with the "advance" release of GDP. Econ Data / Events Jobless Claims 207k vs 214k f'cast, 212k prev Continued Claims 1781k s 1814k f'cast GDP 1.6 vs 2.5 f'cast, 3.4 prev Q1 PCE Prices  3.7 vs 3.4 f'cast Wholesale Inventories -0.4 v s +0.2 f'cast Market Movement Recap 08:41 AM Bonds losing ground quickly after 8:30am data.  MBS down a quarter point.  10yr up almost 5bps at 4.691. 11:07 AM Weakest levels at 9:30am and pushing back slightly since then.  10yr up 6.4bps at 4.706.  MBS down 10 ticks (.31). 01:28 PM No reaction to 7yr Treasury auction.  10yr up 6.1bps at 4.703.  MBS down 11 ticks (.34) 03:35 PM Increasingly flat at the same old levels.  10yr up 6bps at 4.702 and MBS down 10 ticks (.31).

April 25, 2024 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: 30 Yr. Fixed 6.15% -0.02%   6.01% 7.13% 15 Yr. Fixed 5.72% -0.03%   5.55% 6.5% 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.33% -0.02%   6.1% 7.45% Compare Mortgage Rates from Local Lenders for Apr 25, 2024 Mortgage Rates Jump Up And Over 7.5% After Inflation Surprise Thu, Apr 25, 2024 3:50PM Interest rates care about quite a few different things, but inflation and Fed policy are two of the biggest considerations.  One of the Fed's favorite ways to track progress on inflation is the PCE price index which comes out every month, but also every quarter. Oddly enough, the quarterly comes out a day before the monthly data on the 4 days of the year where a new quarter is reported.  Today was one of those days and the quarterly data showed a big surge in inflation.  The implication is that there's a much bigger risk that tomorrow's monthly inflation number also proves to b... (read more) Mortgage News Daily Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.15% -0.02 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.72% -0.03 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 5.75% -0.05 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.33% -0.02 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 5.56% -0.03 0.00 30 Yr. VA 5.77% -0.04 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 2/6 Freddie Mac Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.11% +0.01 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.50% +0.01 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 2/5 Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.24% +0.08 0.55 15 Yr. Fixed 5.64% +0.09 0.61 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.34% -0.05 0.40 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 1/28 UMBS 30YR 5.0 100.05 +0.01   95.71 100.50 UMBS 30YR 5.5 101.49 +0.04   98.11 101.64 10 YR Treasury 4.213 +0.033   3.932 4.608 Bonds Rattled By Surprisingly Big Beat in Spending Data Thu, Apr 25, 2024 4:01PM Bonds Rattled By Surprisingly Big Beat in Spending Data Today's big surprise was the PCE price index component of Q1 GDP.  GDP itself was weaker than expected, but even that was explained away by components not related to private domestic consumption.  Focusing on the latter makes Q1 look just as strong as ... (read more) MBS Price Change UMBS 4.5 98.06 +0.03 UMBS 5.0 100.05 +0.01 UMBS 5.5 101.49 +0.04 GNMA 4.5 97.84 +0.10 GNMA 5.0 100.18 +0.11 GNMA 5.5 101.22 -0.02 Pricing as of: 2/7 9:00AM EST US Treasury Yield Change 2 YR Treasury 3.496 +0.044 5 YR Treasury 3.753 +0.036 7 YR Treasury 3.965 +0.026 10 YR Treasury 4.213 +0.033 30 YR Treasury 4.851 +0.006 Pricing as of: 2/7 9:00AM EST Other News Electronic Bidding, MORA, Processing, Marketing Tools; CFPB and Servicing Fees, Mortgage Fraud Case Thu, Apr 25, 2024 11:40AM I travel a little bit, so it was with great interest that I read, “The Department of Transportation… will soon require airlines to quickly refund passengers if they cancel, delay, or make significant changes to flights.” “A book hit my head, and I have only my shelf to blame.” Odd things happen all the time. Someone puts their cup on the ground, leans over t... (read more) Latest Video Markets 'spooked' by sticky inflation, says John Hancock's Emily Roland Still holding on to our July Fed rate cut forecast, says MetLife's Drew Mat... GDP increased at a 1.6% rate in the first quarter, less than expected Pending home sales beat expectations to the upside in best read of the year Around the Web Marketwatch Housing supply surges by up to 50% in these metro areas and many sellers are being forced to slash their asking prices Marketwatch Is another inflation scare coming? GDP seems to say yes. wells fargo Wolf in Sheep's Clothing: Soft GDP Hides Surging Spending Eye on Housing Housing Share of GDP Surpasses 16% for First Time Since 2022 CNBC GDP increased at a 1.6% rate in the first quarter, less than expected Marketwatch Pending home sales see unexpected jump in March, despite rising mortgage rates Eye on Housing All-Cash Sales Dropped to Lowest in 3 Years Marketwatch U.S. weekly jobless claims drop to lowest level since February Marketwatch GDP set to top 2% again, extending hot streak for U.S. economy CNBC Treasury yields dip ahead of gross domestic product, inflation data Marketwatch Deutsche Bank expects fewer U.S. commercial real estate provisions in second half Marketwatch Durable-goods orders get boost from autos and planes, but most manufacturers tread water Calculated Risk Blog AIA: "Architecture firm billings retreat further in March"; Multi-family Billings Decline for 20th Consecutive Month

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