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Winning Streak Thwarted, But Not By Much
This morning's Day Ahead pondered the possibility of a 4th straight day of intraday gains for bonds--something that hasn't happened since last September. These bullish musings apparently angered the bond gods, who are a stern and unforgiving lot. Literally moments later, bonds turned red and have been red ever since. On the bright side, 10yr yields have been orbiting 1.56% fairly reliably these past 4 days (in other words, they've been flat despite some intraday volatility). This is actually another strong showing considering we have another condensed Treasury auction cycle at the beginning of next week. 2021's rising rate intermission continues...
Econ Data / Events
Fed MBS Buying 10am, 1130am, 1pm
IHS/Markit PMIs: Composite.........62.2 vs 59.7 previously Services............63.1 vs 61.9 f'cast, 60.4 previously Manufacturing....60.6 vs 60.5 f'cast, 59.1 prev
New Home Sales 1.021m vs 886k f'cast, 846k prev (highest since 2006)
Market Movement Recap
08:29 AM Bonds were microscopically weaker in Asia but gained ground steadily in Europe. Domestic session is starting just slightly stronger, with most of the improvement happening at the 8:20am CME Open. 10yr is almost 1bp lower at 1.535 and MBS 2.5 coupons are up 1 tick (0.03).
10:21 AM Steady weakness since the 9:30am NYSE open. Stronger PMI and New Home Sales data may actually be contributing. 10yr yields now up 3bps to 1.572 and 2.5 UMBS down just over an eighth.
02:06 PM Decent recovery in the 11am hour as bonds found technical support before breaking above 1.585% (now down to 1.56%). UMBS are down only 2 ticks on the day now (-0.06) at 103-22 (103.69).
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MBS Commentary
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Winning Streak Thwarted, But Not By Much
This morning's Day Ahead pondered the possibility of a 4th straight day of intraday gains for bonds--something that hasn't happened since last September. These b... (read more) |
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Housing News
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New home sales reversed direction in March, fully recovering from the 18.2 percent nosedive those sales took in February. The Census Bureau said sales of newly constructed homes rose 20.7 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.021 million ... (read more) |
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Mortgage Rate Watch
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Mortgage rates fell to the lowest levels since March 2nd or 3rd (depending on the lender) yesterday and today they fell just a bit more. Most borrowers will see the exact same rate quotes as yesterday, but a few will have slightly lower upfront costs... (read more) |
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Housing News
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The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) is predicting a banner year for purchase mortgage originations. The Association's chief economist and senior vice president Mike Fratantoni told attendees at MBA's Spring Conference and Expo that those originati... (read more) |
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Housing News
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Existing home sales declined for the second straight month in March. The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) said single-family homes, townhomes, condos, and cooperative apartments sold at a seasonally adjusted annual rate during the month of... (read more) |
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Rob Chrisman
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My cat Myrtle seems immune to marketing and advertisement. Not everyone is, of course, and there are some clever, albeit ominous, ways to get messages across . Google, of course, knows how to get messages across, knows a lot about you, and knows how ... (read more) |
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