Forget the ECB; Taxes Saved Bonds Today First off, bonds didn't really need "saving."  They were only modestly weaker to start the day and didn't lose too much more ground from there.  The first rally arrived after ECB Pres Lagarde finished her press conference, but it didn't last long.  Yields were at their highest levels just after 1pm when the latest iteration of 39% capital gains tax news made the rounds.  Stocks and bond yields instantly moved lower in unison with the 10yr almost getting back to intraday lows of 1.53%.  MBS are going out near their highs of the day with 2.0 and 2.5 coupons both up 2 to 3 ticks (0.06-0.09). Econ Data / Events Fed MBS Buying  10am, 1130am, 1pm Jobless Claims 547k vs 617k f'cast, 586k prev Existing Home Sales 6.01 vs 6.19 f'cast, 6.24 prev Inventory 1.07m vs 1.03m prev Leading Economic Indicators 1.3 vs 1.0 f'cast, -0.1 prev Market Movement Recap 08:18 AM Bonds were slightly stronger to start the overnight session, but sold off during European AM hours.  No drama, just linear positioning ahead of the ECB press conference.  10yr yields are up 1.4bps at 1.573 and 2.5 UMBS are down just under an eighth of a point. 10:08 AM Bonds have been rallying after the ECB press conference concluded, and have added to gains just slightly in the past few minutes.  10yr yields down 1.4bps at 1.545 and 2.5 UMBS up 1 tick (+0.03). 11:43 AM Gains reversed somewhat quickly in the 11am hour (started gradually in the 10am hour).  Potential culprits include a bounce in stocks, Treasury auction issuance confirmation at 11am, and an updated Fed WEI showing a strong growth outlook at 11:30am.  The KC Fed's manufacturing index also hit a record high (released around the same time, and yes, we're reaching for justification here...).  10yr is up 2.3bps at 1.582.  MBS are down an eighth from highs. 03:21 PM As outlined in the most recent update, capital gains tax hike headlines sent stocks and bond yields lower.  They've been holding those gains ever since.  10yr yields are down 1 bp at 1.55%.  2.5 UMBS are up almost an eighth of a point now.

April 22, 2021 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: MBS Commentary MBS Live Recap: Forget the ECB; Taxes Saved Bonds Today Forget the ECB; Taxes Saved Bonds Today First off, bonds didn't really need "saving."  They were only modestly weaker to start the day and didn't lose too much more ground from there.  The first ral... (read more) Rob Chrisman Corresp., MLO, Ops Jobs; Retention, Servicing, Construction-to-Perm Products; Fraud Report; CFPB, Compliance, and Legal Shifts Not you, of course, but many other people in our biz are elderly. Sure you haven’t seen them in person in a year, but they’re there. Or they have elderly parents. Heck, is “elderly” a bad word now? Seriously, I hope everyone r... (read more) Mortgage Rate Watch Mortgage Rates Back Near Lowest Levels in Weeks Mortgage rates hit their lowest levels in more than a month last Thursday, but reversed course later that afternoon. With that, it looked like rates would continue settling in to a sideways range for April (not a bad outcome considering the abrupt ra... (read more) Housing News Mortgage Applications End Losing Streak Mortgage application volume broke out of a six-week slump in a big way during the week ended April 16. The Mortgage Bankers Association said its Market Composite Index, a measure of that volume, jumped 8.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis and w... (read more) Housing News UI Says HARP 2.0 Could Help Pandemic-Era Borrowers The Urban Institute (UI) is advocating for a streamlined refinancing program similar to the Home Affordable Refinance Program (HARP) which aided many homeowners during the Great Recession to assist those impacted by the pandemic. HARP, which was used... (read more) Housing News Brighter Outlook For Housing and Economy - Fannie Mae Incoming data for March has caused Fannie Mae to again revise its forecast for the year's growth in gross domestic product (GDP). The company's Economic and Strategic Research (ESR) team said a sharp uptick in the economy last month followed a weathe... (read more) Mortgage Rates 30 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.73% +0.06% Rate Change Points Mortgage News Daily 30 Yr. Fixed 6.73% +0.06 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.97% +0.06 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 6.25% +0.06 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.84% +0.04 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 6.33% +0.04 0.00 30 Yr. VA 6.26% +0.06 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 7/2 15 Yr. Fixed Rate 5.97% +0.06% Rate Change Points Freddie Mac 30 Yr. Fixed 6.77% -0.04 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.89% -0.07 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 6/26 Rate Change Points Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.88% +0.04 0.63 15 Yr. Fixed 6.11% -0.03 0.74 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.88% +0.07 0.60 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 6/25 MBS / Treasuries UMBS 30YR 5.5 99.91 +0.07 Price / Yield Change MBS UMBS 5.5 99.91 +0.07 UMBS 6.0 101.61 +0.05 GNMA 5.5 100.05 +0.09 GNMA 6.0 101.46 +0.05 Pricing as of: 7/3 4:58AM EST 10 Year US Treasury 4.2592 -0.0206 Price / Yield Change US Treasury 2 YR Treasury 3.770 -0.018 5 YR Treasury 3.848 -0.019 7 YR Treasury 4.036 -0.020 10 YR Treasury 4.261 -0.019 30 YR Treasury 4.788 -0.021 Pricing as of: 7/3 4:58AM EST Latest Video Century 21 Real Estate CEO on record high home prices, investor demand Home sales are down because of supply, not demand The 9am Bond Report - April 22, 2021 Existing home sales up 12.3% vs. a year ago Around the Web CNBC Biden to propose capital gains tax of 39.6% to fund education and child care, reports say Calculated Risk Blog Hotels: Occupancy Rate Down 13% Compared to Same Week in 2019 Reuters Senate Republicans ready $568 billion infrastructure plan Calculated Risk Blog Comments on March Existing Home Sales CNBC Lagarde pays tribute to 'role model' Merkel Calculated Risk Blog NAR: Existing-Home Sales Decreased to 6.01 million in March CNBC U.S. weekly jobless claims total 547,000 vs. 603,000 estimate CNBC ECB keeps interest rates and bond buying unchanged Reuters Yellen lays out 'bold' climate agenda for U.S. economy, markets Calculated Risk Blog Philly Fed: State Coincident Indexes Increased in 49 States in March Reuters U.S. Senate committee advances sweeping China bill Calculated Risk Blog DOT: Vehicle Miles Driven decreased 10.6% year-over-year in February Reuters Analysis: U.S. banks' bond bonanza driven by extraordinary market conditions, regulatory decisions

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