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4th Straight Day Inside Last Thursday's Range
Last Thursday was the best rally day we've seen in months and it took yields to their lowest levels since early March. Against that backdrop, it seems like a sort of victory to be able to remain inside Thursday's trading range for the past 4 days. Trading levels aside, the lack of volatility can be chalked up to an absence of significant market movers. The calendar picks up a bit tomorrow with the ECB announcement and Jobless Claims bright and early.
Econ Data / Events
Fed MBS Buying 10am, 1130am, 1pm
Market Movement Recap
08:33 AM Very flat during Asian hours with a small bump higher in yield at the start of EU trading hours. Bonds have been bouncing back since then and are now unchanged vs yesterday at 1.57% in 10yr yields and 103-17 (103.53) in UMBS 2.5 coupons. No notable market movers.
11:20 AM Some weakness after Bank of Canada's policy announcement and press conference--not normally something we care about, but bonds seem to care to some small extent, likely due to the T word (tapering). 10yr yields up 2bps at the worst moments, but now up only 1.4bps at 1.58%. 2.5 UMBS briefly turned red, but are back up 1 tick (+0.03).
01:45 PM Weakness began drying up just after the last update and we're back to unchanged in 10yr yields and +.125 in MBS. The gains were intact before the 20yr bond auction at 1pm, and we've been flat since then.
03:22 PM Modest buying at the 3pm CME close, but not enough to break today's range in Treasuries. MBS, on the other hand, have been grinding higher all afternoon and did, in fact, just hit their highest levels of the day, up 5 ticks (.16) at 103-23 (103.72).
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MBS Commentary
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4th Straight Day Inside Last Thursday's Range
Last Thursday was the best rally day we've seen in months and it took yields to their lowest levels since early March. Against that backdrop, it seems like ... (read more) |
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Rob Chrisman
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Over the weekend I visited a gas station, and the fellow in the kiosk had a name tag with, “Tim, Fuel Leader” inscribed on it. I will leave making fun of the title to you, but seeing him in there made me wonder how much interaction and co... (read more) |
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Housing News
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Mortgage application volume broke out of a six-week slump in a big way during the week ended April 16. The Mortgage Bankers Association said its Market Composite Index, a measure of that volume, jumped 8.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis and w... (read more) |
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Mortgage Rate Watch
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Mortgage rates hit their lowest levels in more than a month last Thursday, but reversed course later that afternoon. With that, it looked like rates would continue settling in to a sideways range for April (not a bad outcome considering the abrupt ra... (read more) |
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Housing News
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The Urban Institute (UI) is advocating for a streamlined refinancing program similar to the Home Affordable Refinance Program (HARP) which aided many homeowners during the Great Recession to assist those impacted by the pandemic. HARP, which was used... (read more) |
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Housing News
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Incoming data for March has caused Fannie Mae to again revise its forecast for the year's growth in gross domestic product (GDP). The company's Economic and Strategic Research (ESR) team said a sharp uptick in the economy last month followed a weathe... (read more) |
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