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Stronger Case For Stability, But Not Complacency
With today's solid gains, this week becomes the best argument we've seen for a shift in 2021's rising rate trend. Without some fundamental shock to the economy or covid outlook, we won't be surprised if this rally has a tough time making huge progress toward lower rates. For now, it's best thought of as a sideways consolidation, but that's still a big victory compared to most of the rest of the year. All that having been said, the case for higher rates remains compelling in the bigger picture, so it's important to stay on guard for an eventual relapse of the previous trend.
Econ Data / Events
Fed MBS Buying 10am, 1130am, 1pm
Jobless Claims 744k vs 680k f'cast, 728k prev
Market Movement Recap
08:15 AM Modestly stronger overnight with more of the gains seen during European hours. Steady demand, with some help from ECB meeting minutes. 10yr yields were 1.642 at lows, but are now up to 1.662 after an early stateside bounce. MBS opening 3 ticks up (+0.09).
09:46 AM Additional gains, once again right in line with the 9:30am NYSE open. Treasuries are leading the charge with 10yr yields now down 4.6bps at 1.633. UMBS 2.5 coupons are up almost a quarter of a point.
12:26 PM Bonds hit their best levels at 10am, bounced modestly and are now back in line with the best levels. Supportive comments from Powell are helping. Current levels match those seen in the last update.
03:08 PM Calmly consolidating near day's best levels. 10yr yields hit the 3pm close just over 1.63%, almost 5bps lower on the day. UMBS 2.5s are still roughly a quarter point higher on the day.
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MBS Commentary
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Stronger Case For Stability, But Not Complacency
With today's solid gains, this week becomes the best argument we've seen for a shift in 2021's rising rate trend. Without some fundamental shock to the e... (read more) |
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Housing News
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Non-government lenders continue to return to mortgage lending after fleeing at the start of the pandemic. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) says this has helped increase the supply of jumbo mortgages for six straight months and helped drive MBA'... (read more) |
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Rob Chrisman
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"i" before ‘e’ except after ‘c’” has finally been disproved by science. Does “machine learning” equal “Artificial Intelligence (AI)”? Nope . And did you know that over the past 12 months, in the U... (read more) |
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Housing News
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Consumer attitudes perked up in March, sending the Fannie Mae Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI) up 5.2 points compared to February. The company said four of the HPSI's components rose during the month, taking the index to 81.7. The percentage of r... (read more) |
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Mortgage Rate Watch
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Mortgage Rates have been doing pretty well so far in April. They bounced at long-term highs on March 31st (matching the highs from 2 weeks prior), but have been descending gently since then. Today's move was definitely modest. The average borrower wo... (read more) |
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Housing News
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After years of gains in educational attainment, employment, and wages, women have increased their rates of both homeownership and headship (the number who are heads of households). Now the Urban Institute (UI) says the pandemic may have put those adv... (read more) |
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