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1.62% has been one of the most important technical levels for 10yr yields in the past month. After breaking above last week, we had a chance to confirm a break back below yesterday and ended up closing to close for a clear signal. Overnight weakness emphasizes the challenges facing an easy return back below 1.62%, even if the situation isn't as gloomy as it was several days ago when the bigger risk was a break above 1.75%.
To reiterate yesterday's afternoon commentary and video: recent resilience doesn't confirm a friendly reversal back toward lower yields as much as it builds a case for sideways momentum. Unfortunately, sideways momentum means a healthy mix of stronger and weaker trading days. Better than where we were, but not as good as we'd like to be!
There are no significant economic reports on tap. True, PCE inflation was once considered a top tier market mover, but inflation reports have had a muted impact on bonds since the pandemic. Trade is far more likely to be informed by month/quarter-end rebalancing flows as well as technicals. On that note, if it's not already clear, 1.62% remains an important battleground. 1.75% is likely a safe from attack today, and a challenge of the 1.50% floor is equally unlikely. Bottom line: we're in the process of feeling out a new sideways range near long-term highs, and we'll have to wait at least until next week to see if the momentum will remain broadly sideways or give way to new directionaly move.
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MBS Commentary
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1.62% has been one of the most important technical levels for 10yr yields in the past month. After breaking above last week, we had a chance to confirm a break back below yesterday and ended up closing to close for a clear signal. Overnig... (read more) |
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Mortgage Rate Watch
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It's no secret that 2021 has been a rough year for mortgage rates so far. They've moved higher on all but a few weeks, and exclusively higher if we only count the past 8 weeks (something that hasn't happened in more than a decade , even though there ... (read more) |
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Rob Chrisman
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I just finished my weekly 3 minute “abs of steel” workout, and it’s time for a rant! A wealth tax? How does the Federal government pull that off? Is an auditor going to ask to see my baseball card collection which accounts for 50 pe... (read more) |
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Housing News
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The two-month rally in new home sales ended abruptly and definitively in February. The U.S. Census Bureau and Department of Housing and Urban Development said sales of newly constructed single-family homes dropped by 18.2 percent to a seasonally adju... (read more) |
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Housing News
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Mortgage originators' profits remained strong in the fourth quarter of 2020, although they were down considerably from the previous period. The Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA's) Mortgage Bankers Performance Report says that independent mortgage ... (read more) |
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Housing News
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Mortgage application volume declined for the third consecutive time during the week ended March 19 as refinancing continued to retreat. The Mortgage Bankers Association's (MBA) Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey revealed a 2.5 percent decrease in th... (read more) |
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