Fighting Good Fight, Waiting on Fed Day Coming off a fairly rough Friday at the end of last week, it's mildly reassuring to begin the new week with no additional damage.  But as has been the case for weeks, these resilient episodes are noticeably lacking in bullish confirmation (i.e. we're not selling off, but we're not rallying in any meaningful way).  The takeaway is simple: it's a rising rate environment until proven otherwise.  If one event has the power to change the trading tone in bonds this week, it's Wednesday's Fed Announcement for reasons discussed in the Day Ahead. Econ Data / Events Fed MBS Buying  10am, 1130am, 1pm NY Fed Manufacturing 17.4 vs 14.5 f'cast, 12.0 prev Market Movement Recap 08:19 AM Fairly flat overnight with initial weakness giving way to a rally in Europe.  Both were small.  Slightly better selling in the past hour.  10yr is perfectly unchanged at 1.625.  UMBS still finding liquidity, but are close enough to unchanged as well. 11:51 AM Additional decent gains heading into the end of European session.  France's suspension of Astra Zeneca vaccine lines up with the rally, but tough to say if it's the source.  10yr yields now down almost 3 bps at 1.597.  UMBS 2.5 coupons up an eighth.  01:06 PM Giving up some of the gains after the EU bond market close.  Nothing too dramatic and MBS/Treasuries both still in modestly positive territory (UMBS + 0.06 and 10yr down 2bps to 1.604). 03:49 PM Uneventful fizzle continues after the 3pm CME close.  Treasuries are 2bps lower on the day and UMBS 2.5 coupons are nearly unchanged.  

March 15, 2021 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: 30 Yr. Fixed 6.28% -0.01%   6.11% 7.26% 15 Yr. Fixed 5.65% +0.05%   5.54% 6.59% 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.25% +0.00%   6.25% 7.45% Compare Mortgage Rates from Local Lenders for Mar 15, 2021 Much Less Volatile Week, But Mortgage Rates Remain Elevated Thu, Mar 11, 2021 3:50PM Mortgage rates improved microscopically today as the underlying bond market stayed uncharacteristically steady. Since the beginning of 2021, bonds have been exceptionally volatile with yields moving higher and prices moving lower. That's a recipe for higher interest rates--something that was painfully obvious in February when the average mortgage lender jumped by half a percentage point in conventional 30yr fixed rates. March saw rates move just a bit higher at first, but they've since leveled off --at least for now. The current week hasn't done anything to jeopardize that stability so far, an... (read more) Mortgage News Daily Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.28% -0.01 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.65% +0.05 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 5.94% -0.01 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.25% 0.00 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 5.62% +0.03 0.00 30 Yr. VA 5.95% -0.02 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 9/8 Freddie Mac Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.50% -0.06 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.60% -0.09 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 9/4 Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.64% -0.05 0.59 15 Yr. Fixed 5.84% -0.19 0.84 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.58% -0.09 0.39 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 9/3 UMBS 30YR 5.5 101.22 -0.06   97.47 101.61 UMBS 30YR 6.0 102.47 -0.07   99.66 102.50 10 YR Treasury 4.065 +0.026   3.621 4.780 MBS Live Recap: Fighting Good Fight, Waiting on Fed Day Mon, Mar 15, 2021 3:52PM Fighting Good Fight, Waiting on Fed Day Coming off a fairly rough Friday at the end of last week, it's mildly reassuring to begin the new week with no additional damage.  But as has been the case for weeks, these resilient episodes are noticeably lacking in bullish confirmation (i.e. we're not selling off, but w... (read more) MBS Price Change UMBS 5.0 99.70 -0.08 UMBS 5.5 101.24 -0.04 UMBS 6.0 102.48 -0.06 GNMA 5.0 100.02 -0.05 GNMA 5.5 101.19 +0.00 GNMA 6.0 102.13 -0.05 Pricing as of: 9/9 7:01AM EST US Treasury Yield Change 2 YR Treasury 3.499 +0.011 5 YR Treasury 3.576 +0.014 7 YR Treasury 3.784 +0.016 10 YR Treasury 4.061 +0.022 30 YR Treasury 4.719 +0.029 Pricing as of: 9/9 7:01AM EST Other News How Remote Workers Could Eventually Disrupt Housing Market Mon, Mar 15, 2021 11:27AM A study by ApartmentList has identified a new category of workers, arising, at least in part, out of the pandemic. Lynn Pollack, writing in GlobeSt , says this "untethered class" hold remote types of jobs and have little reason to stay put. They have a median age of 32 and are "on the precipice of settling down." They are currently renting, living alone or w... (read more) Home Equity Gains are Breaking 8 Year Records Fri, Mar 12, 2021 1:21PM Homeowners' housing wealth grew by record numbers in the fourth quarter of last year . CoreLogic, in its Home Equity Report for the period, says the average equity in a U.S. home increased 16.2 percent since the fourth quarter of 2019, the greatest increase in seven years. Homeowners gained an average of $26,300 in equity and the aggregate increase across th... (read more) Forbearances Reach Their Lowest Levels in Almost a Year Fri, Mar 12, 2021 11:15AM Black Knight notes a large improvement in forbearance statistics during the week ended March 9. The number of loans in active plans dropped by 77,000 over the week, the largest single week decline since early January, and lowered the number of plans to 2.6 million, a -2.9 percent change. At the end of the reporting period the remaining loans represent 4.9 pe... (read more) Ops, MLO, AE, Compliance Jobs; HFA, URLA, Servicing Products; Upcoming Training and Events; Rates Stable, For Now Mon, Mar 15, 2021 10:01AM Here we are at the Ides of March: only two weeks until the end of the 1st quarter! The time is flying by and time is precious. Last night I slept on the couch to cut down on my morning commute. It worked! Rates have moved higher in 2021, as certainly the pressure is on rates to move higher rather than lower given the expected end of the pandemic and the resu... (read more) Latest Video The 9am Bond Report - March 15, 2021 March Empire State Manufacturing comes in at 17.4, versus 15 expected These are Fed Chair Powell's top challenges Producer price index meets expectations in February Around the Web Calculated Risk Blog Boston Real Estate in February: Sales Up 7% YoY, Inventory Down 13% YoY Reuters U.S. COVID-19 deaths fall 22% last week, daily vaccinations set record Calculated Risk Blog Second Home Market: South Lake Tahoe Reuters Stocks subdued, U.S. yields fall with Fed on tap CNBC 31% of young adults relocated during Covid. But they aren't giving up on cities altogether Calculated Risk Blog Housing Inventory March 15th Update: At Record Lows Calculated Risk Blog BLS: January Unemployment rates down in 33 States Calculated Risk Blog Seven High Frequency Indicators for the Economy Reuters Fed likely to pen rosier forecasts, but no policy shift expected CNBC 10-year Treasury yield holds above 1.6% ahead of Fed meeting Calculated Risk Blog South Carolina Real Estate in February: Sales Up 13% YoY, Inventory Down 46% YoY Calculated Risk Blog MBA: Share of Second Home and Investor Mortgage Applications Reuters Take Five: Week of the central banks

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