Powell Does Exactly What He Was Supposed To (And Bonds Didn't Like It) From this AM: "some recent analysis has GREATLY overestimated the Fed's willingness to "twist.""  In simpler terms, there was some buzz about Powell saying the Fed might sell short-term bonds and buy more long-term bonds.  That buzz was silly this morning, and Powell confirmed the silliness by passing up 47 opportunities to say anything remotely indicative of twisty aspirations.  In other words, sorry long-term bonds... the Fed isn't going to save you.  The only surprise here today is the revelation of just how much of the bond market expected something else (as evidenced by the 1.47 to 1.54% sell-off following Powell).  SIGNIFICANTLY more detail and explanation available in this commentary piece and in today's video. Econ Data / Events Fed MBS Buying  10am, 1130am, 1pm Jobless Claims 745k vs 750k f'cast Factory Orders 2.6 vs 2.1 f'cast Market Movement Recap 08:43 AM Modestly stronger overnight with weaker vibes heading into domestic hours.  MBS just turned negative and Treasuries are heading in that direction (10yr -0.5 bps at 1.479).  Weakness is momentum driven and not a factor of the 8:30am data. 10:20 AM Better buying since 9am.  It's not a runaway rally, but it reinforces yesterday's narrow range.  10yr down to 1.462 and 2.5 UMBS up just over an eighth on the day. 03:56 PM Markets tanked so hard after Powell's speech that we're just now getting around to updating it!  In the meantimes, there were 4 alerts (1, 2, 3, 4), a huge explainer of a commentary piece, and an equally explanatory video.  The bond rout has subsided for now with 10yr yields 5bps higher and MBS down about 30bps.

March 4, 2021 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: 30 Yr. Fixed 6.28% -0.01%   6.11% 7.26% 15 Yr. Fixed 5.65% +0.05%   5.54% 6.59% 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.25% +0.00%   6.25% 7.45% Compare Mortgage Rates from Local Lenders for Mar 4, 2021 Mortgage Rates Finally Catching a Break Tue, Mar 2, 2021 4:40PM In the past 2 decades , there have been 6 months where mortgage rates rose at least 50 basis points. February 2021 was one of them. Moreover, it was one of only 2 of those months where rates rose without obvious provocation from a significant new, unexpected motivation (the last time that happened was December 2010. The other months were associated with 2013's taper tantrum, the 2016 presidential election, and the market dislocations in March 2020 as covid panic surged). In other words, it was a really bad month for rates--so bad, in fact, that it has increasingly made sense to look for some r... (read more) Mortgage News Daily Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.28% -0.01 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.65% +0.05 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 5.94% -0.01 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.25% 0.00 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 5.62% +0.03 0.00 30 Yr. VA 5.95% -0.02 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 9/8 Freddie Mac Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.50% -0.06 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.60% -0.09 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 9/4 Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.64% -0.05 0.59 15 Yr. Fixed 5.84% -0.19 0.84 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.58% -0.09 0.39 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 9/3 UMBS 30YR 5.5 101.28 +0.16   97.47 101.61 UMBS 30YR 6.0 102.54 +0.05   99.66 102.54 10 YR Treasury 4.039 -0.047   3.621 4.780 MBS Live Recap: Why Bonds Tanked After Powell (And Why It Was No Surprise) Thu, Mar 4, 2021 4:19PM Powell Does Exactly What He Was Supposed To (And Bonds Didn't Like It) From this AM: "some recent analysis has GREATLY overestimated the Fed's willingness to "twist.""  In simpler terms, there was some buzz about Powell saying the Fed might sell short-term bonds and buy more long-term bonds.  That buzz was ... (read more) MBS Price Change UMBS 5.0 99.78 +0.31 UMBS 5.5 101.28 +0.16 UMBS 6.0 102.54 +0.05 GNMA 5.0 100.07 +0.24 GNMA 5.5 101.19 +0.06 GNMA 6.0 102.18 +0.05 Pricing as of: 9/8 7:06PM EST US Treasury Yield Change 2 YR Treasury 3.487 -0.030 5 YR Treasury 3.562 -0.027 7 YR Treasury 3.768 -0.032 10 YR Treasury 4.039 -0.047 30 YR Treasury 4.690 -0.079 Pricing as of: 9/8 7:06PM EST Other News With Protections Expiring, Millions are in Danger of Losing Their Home Tue, Mar 2, 2021 10:28AM What happens to homeowners and landlords when the federal, state, and local protections put in place during the pandemic go away? The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) is warning that the answer is hanging in the balance. Moratoria on foreclosures and evictions coupled with widespread availability of forbearance plans have held disaster at bay, but... (read more) Refinance Volume Ramps Down on Rising Rates Wed, Mar 3, 2021 8:25AM Mortgage application volume rose for the first time in four weeks during the week ended February 26, but it was only a marginal increase. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) said its Market Composite Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 0.5 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis from one week earlier. On an unadjusted basis, the... (read more) Home Price Appreciation Broke an 8-Year Record in January Tue, Mar 2, 2021 12:22PM CoreLogic says home prices in January were 10 percent higher than a year earlier. It was the first double digit increase in the company's Home Price Index (HPI) since November 2013 . The company had reported a 9.2 percent annual increase in December. The month-over-month increase in home prices nationwide, including distressed sales, was 0.9 percent. Frank M... (read more) LO, Ops, AE Jobs; HELOC, Efficiency, AMC, Sales, VOE Tools; Podcast for LOs; Jumbo and Non-QM News Thu, Mar 4, 2021 9:56AM Welcome to the only day where the date is a command. Owners of shopping malls wish they could command everyone to go shopping in one. When was the last time you went into a shopping mall? I don’t remember either, and I’m starting to miss those rock-solid pretzels and henna tattoo & ear-piercing booths. Turn them into housing, affordable or ot... (read more) Latest Video Fed won't step in on bond yields until it reaches wider credit spreads: Ros... Fed's going to have to sound 'less dovish to get control of bond market': P... Fed officials not close to acting on long end yields Powell says inflation is set to increase, but likely temporary Around the Web Reuters Fed's Powell pledges patience, says easy policy appropriate housingwire.com UWM to block brokers working with Fairway and Quicken Reuters First U.S. Senate vote on COVID-19 aid bill possible Thursday CNBC Fed Chairman Powell says economic reopening could cause inflation to pick up temporarily Reuters Bond scares drive muted Wall Street open, investors look to Powell Reuters U.S. weekly jobless claims rise moderately; labor market regaining footing Calculated Risk Blog February Employment Preview Reuters U.S. Senate expected to begin debating coronavirus package on Thursday CNBC Weekly jobless claims rise less than expected CNBC Asia-Pacific shares trade lower as bond yields rise again; tech stocks decline Reuters Fed says U.S. economy got off to modest start in 2021 CFPB CFPB Proposes Delay of Mandatory Compliance Date for General Qualified Mortgage Final Rule Reuters U.S. Senate negotiates limits in Biden's $1.9 trillion COVID-19 bill before vote

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