Too Strong to Give Up Hope. Too Weak to Rest Easy - New week, new month, new chance for yields to confirm a ceiling after last week's rout - Mixed results for bonds today with early weakness and a late bounce (especially for MBS) - Very poor liquidity in MBS (buyers and sellers oftentimes FAR apart on their desired prices) - 100% focus on UMBS 2.5 coupon (why?) - Bottom line: not enough weakness to give up hope.  Not enough strength to rest easy. Econ Data / Events Fed MBS Buying  10am, 1130am, 1pm ISM Manufacturing 60.8 vs 58.8 (ties highest level since 2004) ISM Prices Paid 86.0 vs 80.0 Construction Spending 1.7 vs 0.8 f'cast Market Movement Recap 08:53 AM Flat in Asia then moderately weaker in Europe.  10yr low = 1.38%.  Highs of 1.456% this morning, but already pushing back down (1.43% currently).  MBS opened weaker, but seem eager enough to hold a majority of Friday afternoon's gains.  So far, so good, despite the weaker start (down only 0.06) now. 10:18 AM Balmy ISM (ties highest level since 2004).  Much higher prices.  Big beat on construction spending, and bonds are...  RALLYING?!  Either the broader bounce narrative is dominating or traders just aren't worried about March 2021 as much as March 2022.  Either way, we'll take it.  10yr back to unchanged, and MBS up 6 ticks (.19). 11:29 AM Dropping off a bit now, but MBS are highly illiquid (wide spread between bid and ask).  No news or events behind the trade.  Bonds just shied away from committing to the morning rally.  10yr +3bps at 1.436 and UMBS 2.5s down 1 tick (-0.03) at 103-22 (103.69). 03:32 PM The noon hour was basically the bottom for MBS prices.  Treasuries didn't weaken much after that either.  While the latter are still flat at moderately weaker levels, MBS are staging a stronger comeback, with 2.5s on the verge of breaking even and 2.0s having already done so.  Liquidity is HORRIBLE.  Buyers and sellers are routinely more than an eighth of a point apart on 2.5 coupons (makes the true price a bit of a moving target).

March 1, 2021 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: 30 Yr. Fixed 6.28% -0.01%   6.11% 7.26% 15 Yr. Fixed 5.65% +0.05%   5.54% 6.59% 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.25% +0.00%   6.25% 7.45% Compare Mortgage Rates from Local Lenders for Mar 1, 2021 Brutal Week For Rates But There's Hope (Hopefully) Fri, Feb 26, 2021 5:49PM Rising rates have been on the menu for months, but the drama kicked into a higher gear this week. Maybe you heard about this? We've certainly been discussing it in recent newsletters ( especially last week's ). The rising rate narrative hit the mainstream this week as it was widely credited for doing damage to the stock market. Perhaps you even caught one of Thursday's many mortgage rate headlines citing the spike in Freddie Mac's weekly mortgage rate survey. Freddie reported a jump in 30yr fixed rates from 2.81 to 2.97, their biggest in nearly a year. Unfortunately, Freddie was low last week ... (read more) Mortgage News Daily Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.28% -0.01 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.65% +0.05 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 5.94% -0.01 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.25% 0.00 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 5.62% +0.03 0.00 30 Yr. VA 5.95% -0.02 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 9/8 Freddie Mac Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.50% -0.06 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.60% -0.09 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 9/4 Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.64% -0.05 0.59 15 Yr. Fixed 5.84% -0.19 0.84 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.58% -0.09 0.39 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 9/3 UMBS 30YR 5.5 101.28 +0.16   97.47 101.61 UMBS 30YR 6.0 102.54 +0.05   99.66 102.54 10 YR Treasury 4.039 -0.047   3.621 4.780 MBS Live Recap: Too Strong to Give Up Hope. Too Weak to Rest Easy Mon, Mar 1, 2021 3:57PM Too Strong to Give Up Hope. Too Weak to Rest Easy - New week, new month, new chance for yields to confirm a ceiling after last week's rout - Mixed results for bonds today with early weakness and a late bounce (especially for MBS) - Very poor liquidity in MBS (buyers and sellers oftentimes FAR apart on their ... (read more) MBS Price Change UMBS 5.0 99.78 +0.31 UMBS 5.5 101.28 +0.16 UMBS 6.0 102.54 +0.05 GNMA 5.0 100.07 +0.24 GNMA 5.5 101.19 +0.06 GNMA 6.0 102.18 +0.05 Pricing as of: 9/8 6:52PM EST US Treasury Yield Change 2 YR Treasury 3.487 -0.030 5 YR Treasury 3.562 -0.027 7 YR Treasury 3.768 -0.032 10 YR Treasury 4.039 -0.047 30 YR Treasury 4.690 -0.079 Pricing as of: 9/8 6:52PM EST Other News Forbearances Post Typical Mid-Month Increase Fri, Feb 26, 2021 2:42PM Black Knight reports a second increase in the number of loans in pandemic related forbearance plans in as many weeks. Forborne loans rose by 21,000 during the week ended February 23 after falling below 2.7 million for the first time since last April earlier this month. The company said such mid-month increases have been typical in recent months. At of the en... (read more) Fannie/Freddie COVID Programs Extended to Match FHA, VA Deadlines Fri, Feb 26, 2021 9:11AM Deadlines for COVID-19 related relief for borrowers with Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (GSE) mortgages were extended by the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) for the second time in a little over two weeks. The agency said the new changes were made to bring GSE programs into alignment with the deadlines for the similar FHA and the VA programs which the White... (read more) Freddie Mac's 12-Month Portfolio Growth Nears Half Trillion Fri, Feb 26, 2021 9:15AM Freddie Mac reported this week that its total mortgage portfolio increased at an annualized rate of 16.1 percent in January compared to a 22.4 percent gain in December. The portfolio balance at the end of the period was $2.777 trillion compared to $2.740 trillion the prior month and $2.339 trillion a year earlier. Purchases and Issuances totaled $120.128 bil... (read more) Ops, MLO Jobs; Sales, Non-QM, HELOC Products; Agency and Investor Disaster Policies; the Fed and Rates Mon, Mar 1, 2021 9:36AM With the jump up in mortgage rates Thursday, and the move back down Friday, a few lock desk personnel wrote to me over the weekend asking about ways of keeping LOs who floated when rates were low, or locked loans at the bottom, off their back . Here you go . Certainly, the mortgage servicing rights of the 2020 book have become more valuable to those holding ... (read more) Latest Video How rising rates are impacting REIT ETFs Higher rates and high prices squeezing homebuyers PIMCO's Schneider: Shifting the Treasury's general account puts more pressu... February final manufacturing PMI comes in at 58.6 vs 58.5 expected Around the Web Reuters S&P 500 set for best day in nine months on vaccine, stimulus cheer Redfin One Year Later: The Coronavirus Pandemic's Impact on the U.S. Housing Market In 12 Charts CFPB New Report From Consumer Financial Protection Bureau Finds Over 11 Million Families At Risk Of Losing Housing Calculated Risk Blog Update: Framing Lumber Prices More Than Double Year-over-year Calculated Risk Blog Construction Spending Increased 1.7% in January Calculated Risk Blog Housing Inventory March 1st Update: At Record Lows Reuters Pent-up demand driving global factory revival CNBC European markets bounce, following global rally as Treasury yields fall; Stoxx 600 up 1.4% Reuters Wall Street set for higher open as bond markets calm; PMIs in focus CNBC This bond market is so radically oversold,' economist David Rosenberg says Fannie Mae Fannie Mae Releases January 2021 Monthly Summary Calculated Risk Blog NY Times Upshot: "Where Have All the Houses Gone?" Reuters Fiscal stimulus fires up U.S. consumer spending; inflation benign

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