Late Day Reversal For Bonds After Trump Stimulus Threat Today wasn't going too terribly poorly for the bond market in the first place even though 10yr yields were technically confirming a negative move up and out of the recent range.  The afternoon complicated the outlook as Trump's Tweets on Stimulus threw both sides of the market for a loop.  Today's video discusses whether or not this is enough to reconsider our range breakout verdict. Econ Data / Events 20min of Fed 30yr UMBS Buying  10am, 1130am (M-F) and 1pm (T-Th) International Trade -67.1 bln vs -66.1 bln f'cast, -63.4 bln prev Market Movement Recap 08:42 AM Bonds were flat to slightly stronger at the start of the overnight session but moved fairly up fairly quickly as domestic traders clocked in for the day.  Stock prices led the move, but it's not substantial--more of an "insult to injury" scenario where the insult portion isn't the end of our world just yet.  10yr yields are up less than 1bp on the day at .787 and 2.0 MBS are down 1 tick (0.03) at 103-06 (103.19). 09:52 AM Quick jump into positive territory at the 9:30am NYSE open.  Yes, that's for stocks, but bonds are also stocks when you consider bond-based ETF trading as well as simple asset allocation trading (i.e. money managers selling stocks and needing a different place to put the money).  10yr yields are now DOWN almost a bp and 2.0 UMBS are up an eighth. 01:44 PM 3yr auction was decent enough to not have a noticeable impact on longer-term bonds.  MBS and Treasuries are both in a symmetrical sideways consolidation (higher lows and lower highs occurring at regular intervals, aka a perfect sideways triangle).  10yr yields are holding under the .79% technical level (.777% currently) and 2.0 UMBS are up 2 ticks (0.06). 02:59 PM Trump tweet re: no stimulus until after election causing massive sell-off in stocks and a sharp rally in bonds.  S&P futures off 1.3% in short order.  10yr yields down 4bps to .738 and 2.0 UMBS up an eighth. 

October 6, 2020 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: 30 Yr. Fixed 6.25% -0.04%   6.11% 7.26% 15 Yr. Fixed 5.71% -0.01%   5.54% 6.59% 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.25% +0.00%   6.25% 7.45% Compare Mortgage Rates from Local Lenders for Oct 6, 2020 Mortgage Rates Under Pressure as Market Volatility Picks Up Mon, Oct 5, 2020 4:14PM Mortgage rates have been spoiled, relatively, by an extraordinarily calm/narrow trading pattern in the bond market. That's important because the bond market directly affects the day to day changes in mortgage rates. A narrow/calm trading pattern means bond prices aren't moving. The implication is that mortgage rates wouldn't need to move much either. That WOULD be the case were it not for the new adverse market fee being phased in by every lender that offers conventional refinances (pretty much all of them). Additionally, the historically low rates forced lenders to change their pricing based ... (read more) Mortgage News Daily Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.25% -0.04 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.71% -0.01 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 5.99% -0.01 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.25% 0.00 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 5.64% -0.01 0.00 30 Yr. VA 6.01% 0.00 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 9/15 Freddie Mac Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.35% -0.15 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.50% -0.10 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 9/11 Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.49% -0.15 0.56 15 Yr. Fixed 5.70% -0.14 0.55 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.44% -0.14 0.48 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 9/10 UMBS 30YR 5.5 101.27 +0.14   97.47 101.61 UMBS 30YR 6.0 102.43 +0.04   99.66 102.50 10 YR Treasury 4.036 -0.031   3.621 4.780 MBS Live Recap: Late Day Reversal For Bonds After Trump Stimulus Threat Tue, Oct 6, 2020 4:12PM Late Day Reversal For Bonds After Trump Stimulus Threat Today wasn't going too terribly poorly for the bond market in the first place even though 10yr yields were technically confirming a negative move up and out of the recent range.  The afternoon complicated the outlook as Trump's Tweets on Stimulus threw both... (read more) MBS Price Change UMBS 5.0 99.91 +0.27 UMBS 5.5 101.29 +0.16 UMBS 6.0 102.44 +0.04 GNMA 5.0 100.19 +0.19 GNMA 5.5 101.20 +0.07 GNMA 6.0 102.00 0.00 Pricing as of: 9/15 1:46PM EST US Treasury Yield Change 2 YR Treasury 3.534 -0.019 5 YR Treasury 3.599 -0.031 7 YR Treasury 3.782 -0.034 10 YR Treasury 4.031 -0.035 30 YR Treasury 4.647 -0.034 Pricing as of: 9/15 1:46PM EST Other News Delinquencies Decline, but That's not the Whole Story Mon, Oct 5, 2020 9:26AM While overall mortgage delinquencies declined by 0.03 percent from July to August, Black Knight's newest Mortgage Monitor reveals some disquieting information about mortgage delinquencies emerging out of the pandemic's financial upheaval. The company, however, says there are also potentially mediating factors. The overall delinquency rate in August was 6.88 ... (read more) TRID Rule Has Helped Borrowers Understand Their Loans Fri, Oct 2, 2020 11:31AM The TRID Rule has been in effect for exactly 5 years (October 3, 2015) and the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) has published an assessment of its effects and effectiveness. The TRID Rule and its associated disclosures and forms was part of a mandate to CFPB included in the Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act to combine previ... (read more) Forbearances Increase For First Time in 6 Weeks Fri, Oct 2, 2020 9:40AM The number of active COVID-19 related forbearance plans grew over the past week according to Black Knight's most recent survey on the subject. The number of mortgages in forbearance rose by 21,000, the first increase in six weeks. Forbearances among loans serviced for the GSEs Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac continued to decline, down 9,000, but the number of loa... (read more) IT and Sales Management; Operations, Forbearance Products; Training Webinars; Women Leaving Workforce Tue, Oct 6, 2020 10:13AM Yes, here we are at the 10th month of the year. You know, “Dec” ember. Oh, this is “Oct” ober. There’s a reason. The numerical names of months date back to the time when in the Ancient Rome the year began in March, so September was really the 7th month, October the 8th, and so on. January became the first month in 45 BC when Jul... (read more) Latest Video Rates will go higher: Leuthold Group's Paulsen Trump instructs his representatives to end stimulus talks with Democrats un... What does a rising Treasury yield mean for growth and technology stocks? How stimulus talks and election uncertainty are impacted markets Around the Web CNBC Trump says he's calling off stimulus negotiations with Democrats 'until after the election' Redfin Redfin Survey: 22% of Homebuyers and Sellers Say the Presidential Election Is Impacting Their Plans NPR Fed's Jerome Powell Calls For More Economic Aid, Warning 'Weakness Feeds On Weakness' Calculated Risk Blog Reis: Office, Mall and Apartment Vacancy Rates Increased in Q3 Calculated Risk Blog Las Vegas Real Estate in September: Sales up 16% YoY, Inventory down 31% YoY Calculated Risk Blog Fed Chair Powell: Recent Economic Developments and the Challenges Ahead news.google.com Fed Chair Jerome Powell delivers remarks on economic outlook Calculated Risk Blog BLS: Job Openings Decreased to 6.5 Million in August news.google.com Democrats and GOP still fighting over $600 jobless benefits. Where things stand Calculated Risk Blog Trade Deficit Increased to $67.1 Billion in August CNBC IMF warns of a long ascent' to pre-crisis levels, but will soon upgrade its GDP forecasts CNBC European markets head for slightly higher open after Trump returns to the White House CNBC Pelosi, Mnuchin speak for an hour but don't reach a coronavirus stimulus deal

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