Bonds Confirm The Breakout, But There Are 2 Ways to Play It Today offers firm confirmation of the range breakout we'd been hoping to see this week.  These sorts of breakouts are positive signals in the bigger picture, but risk-averse rate watchers can use them as early warning signs for short-term shifts.  Today's video discusses this in greater detail. Econ Data / Events 20min of Fed 30yr UMBS Buying  10am, 1130am (M-F) and 1pm (T-Th) ADP Employment 428k vs 950k f'cast, 212k prev Market Movement Recap 08:16 AM Bonds were modestly weaker overnight, but domestic buyers got an early start around 6:30am.  With another slight boost from weak ADP data, Treasuries just turned positive and MBS are effectively unchanged. 11:03 AM Gains extending a bit now, with more friendly Fed-speak, this time from Williams.  10yr yields down 1.6bps on the day to .66% and 2.0 UMBS up 2 ticks (0.06) at 103-11 (103.34). 01:28 PM Comments from Fed speakers have generally been supportive.  Bonds hit their best levels just before noon and have pulled back a bit since then.  The bounce coincides with stock market strength.  10yr yields still down 2.3bps on the day at .649.  UMBS 2.0 still up 2 ticks (0.06) at 103-11 (103.34).

September 2, 2020 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: 30 Yr. Fixed 6.29% +0.01%   6.11% 7.26% 15 Yr. Fixed 5.69% +0.04%   5.54% 6.59% 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.25% +0.00%   6.25% 7.45% Compare Mortgage Rates from Local Lenders for Sep 2, 2020 Here's Why Mortgage Rates Are Outperforming Tue, Sep 1, 2020 4:22PM For most lenders, mortgage rates improved again today, adding to the 3-week lows achieved yesterday. We normally view mortgage rate movement primarily as a function of the bond market, but the bond market says rates should only be falling modestly from their recent highs. What gives? This is a 2 part issue. First , there's a difference between the overall bond market and the bonds that underlie mortgages. So-called mortgage-backed securities (MBS) did a better job of holding their ground in August when compared to the broader bond market via the quintessential 10yr Treasury yield. Second, and ... (read more) Mortgage News Daily Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.29% +0.01 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.69% +0.04 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 5.98% +0.04 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.25% 0.00 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 5.68% +0.06 0.00 30 Yr. VA 6.00% +0.05 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 9/9 Freddie Mac Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.50% -0.06 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.60% -0.09 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 9/4 Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.64% -0.05 0.59 15 Yr. Fixed 5.84% -0.19 0.84 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.58% -0.09 0.39 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 9/3 UMBS 30YR 5.5 101.06 -0.22   97.47 101.61 UMBS 30YR 6.0 102.36 -0.18   99.66 102.50 10 YR Treasury 4.082 +0.043   3.621 4.780 MBS Live Recap: Bonds Confirm The Breakout, But There Are 2 Ways to Play It Wed, Sep 2, 2020 3:40PM Bonds Confirm The Breakout, But There Are 2 Ways to Play It Today offers firm confirmation of the range breakout we'd been hoping to see this week.  These sorts of breakouts are positive signals in the bigger picture, but risk-averse rate watchers can use them as early warning signs for short-term shifts.  ... (read more) MBS Price Change UMBS 5.0 99.45 -0.32 UMBS 5.5 101.07 -0.21 UMBS 6.0 102.37 -0.17 GNMA 5.0 99.74 -0.33 GNMA 5.5 101.06 -0.13 GNMA 6.0 101.99 -0.20 Pricing as of: 9/9 6:03PM EST US Treasury Yield Change 2 YR Treasury 3.559 +0.072 5 YR Treasury 3.617 +0.055 7 YR Treasury 3.820 +0.051 10 YR Treasury 4.091 +0.052 30 YR Treasury 4.728 +0.038 Pricing as of: 9/9 6:03PM EST Other News Mortgage Applications Decline for Third Week Wed, Sep 2, 2020 8:19AM Mortgage applications, both for home purchase and refinancing, declined for the third straight time during the week ended August 28. The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) said its Market Composite Index, a measure of loan application volume, lost 2.0 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis compared to the previous week and was down 3.0 percent on an unadjust... (read more) More Evidence For Mass Exodus To The 'Burbs Tue, Sep 1, 2020 12:10PM It has been rumored since the first wave of the coronavirus struck in some of the densely populated urban centers, especially in New York and New Jersey. Now, however, there is substantiation of a population shift from the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB). Its second quarter Home Building Geography Index (HBGI) shows that, while the pandemic caus... (read more) Construction Spending Report Saved by Multi-Family Sector Tue, Sep 1, 2020 4:21PM Construction spending as a whole was essentially flat in July, but residential spending showed significant growth. The U.S. Census Bureau reported that total expenditures from both public and private sources were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1.365 trillion, a 0.1 percent increase from June but down 0.1 percent from July 2019. On an unadjusted bas... (read more) Marketing, Income, Onboarding, HECM Tools; Jumbo, Non-QM, Misc. Product Updates; DIY Appraisals Wed, Sep 2, 2020 10:21AM I don’t know whether my Nolan Ryan rookie card, fortuitously spared from my bike spokes decades ago, is worth $500 or the 10 cents I spent for the pack (with gum!). Values (and worth) can be tricky things. Look at the value of rentals with the 4-month prohibition on evictions declared yesterday. We were reminded of this one decade ago: investors in mor... (read more) Latest Video Rising instances of furloughed workers being laid off permanently: Fed Beig... Fed's latest Beige Book will not surprise market: Morgan Stanley's Kathy En... Factory orders jump 6.4% in July Florida pending home sales jump as housing market heats up Around the Web Calculated Risk Blog Technical Note on Weekly Unemployment Claims Brookings Institution What do changes in the Fed's longer-run goals and monetary strategy statement mean? CNBC CDC issues sweeping temporary halt on evictions. 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