Bond Market Breakout is Here (The Bad One) For days--and especially since last Friday--we've been increasingly worried that the 2-month bond rally was running out of steam and at risk of a reversal.  The jury was technically out until all of our overhead ceilings were taken out.  As of today, they are.   Econ Data / Events 20min of Fed 30yr UMBS Buying  10am, 1130am (M-F) and 1pm (T-Th) Core Producer Inflation (y/y) 0.3 vs 0.0 f'cast , 0.1 prev Market Movement Recap 08:23 AM Bonds much weaker overnight as yields finally break technical support at the .57/58 barrier.  Quickly up to .62+.  MBS starting out an eighth lower.  Russian vaccine in the headlines, but it's a supporting actor at best. 10:42 AM Treasury yields at new highs (.646%) and MBS near the lows of the day, down 6 ticks (0.19) at 103-15 (103.47).  Stocks are roughly were they were before last night's vaccine headlines (mildly stronger). 02:47 PM Cue the capitulation selling spree for MBS.  They were willing to outperform until this afternoon, but are now getting caught up with Treasury weakness.  2.0 UMBS down almost half a point.  10yr yields up more than 7bps to .656%.  Reprices galore. 04:05 PM Big volatility in both directions this afternoon, but stock weakness ultimately helping bonds claw back some of the day's losses.  MBS now down "only" 9 ticks (.28) on the day and 10yr yields are back down to .628%.  Good luck assigning blame.  The huddle video goes into greater detail on that.

August 11, 2020 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: 30 Yr. Fixed 6.28% -0.01%   6.11% 7.26% 15 Yr. Fixed 5.65% +0.05%   5.54% 6.59% 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.25% +0.00%   6.25% 7.45% Compare Mortgage Rates from Local Lenders for Aug 11, 2020 Most Mortgage Rate Headlines Are Wrong Today Thu, Aug 6, 2020 5:05PM There are quite a few more new stories than normal about mortgage rates today. Most of them are wrong. This one is not, and it's pretty easy to see why. Freddie Mac releases its weekly mortgage rate survey every Thursday morning. The survey accepts responses from Monday through Wednesday, but based on a comparison of day-to-day rates versus the survey numbers, it would appear Monday's rates get most of the weight, Tuesday's slightly less, and Wednesday's almost none. In other words, the survey has historically compared Mon/Tue rates to Mon/Tue rates. That's not a problem if that was made more ... (read more) Mortgage News Daily Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.28% -0.01 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.65% +0.05 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 5.94% -0.01 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.25% 0.00 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 5.62% +0.03 0.00 30 Yr. VA 5.95% -0.02 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 9/8 Freddie Mac Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.50% -0.06 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.60% -0.09 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 9/4 Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.64% -0.05 0.59 15 Yr. Fixed 5.84% -0.19 0.84 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.58% -0.09 0.39 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 9/3 UMBS 30YR 5.5 101.22 -0.06   97.47 101.61 UMBS 30YR 6.0 102.47 -0.07   99.66 102.50 10 YR Treasury 4.065 +0.026   3.621 4.780 MBS Live Recap: Bond Market Breakout is Here (The Bad One) Tue, Aug 11, 2020 4:23PM Bond Market Breakout is Here (The Bad One) For days--and especially since last Friday--we've been increasingly worried that the 2-month bond rally was running out of steam and at risk of a reversal.  The jury was technically out until all of our overhead ceilings were taken out.  As of today, they are.... (read more) MBS Price Change UMBS 5.0 99.70 -0.08 UMBS 5.5 101.24 -0.04 UMBS 6.0 102.48 -0.06 GNMA 5.0 100.02 -0.05 GNMA 5.5 101.19 +0.00 GNMA 6.0 102.13 -0.05 Pricing as of: 9/9 6:59AM EST US Treasury Yield Change 2 YR Treasury 3.499 +0.011 5 YR Treasury 3.576 +0.014 7 YR Treasury 3.784 +0.016 10 YR Treasury 4.060 +0.021 30 YR Treasury 4.718 +0.028 Pricing as of: 9/9 6:59AM EST Other News Delinquencies Growing; More Government Assistance Needed Tue, Aug 11, 2020 11:22AM COVID-19 continued to impact mortgage performance in May. CoreLogic said the number of loans in each stage of delinquency, with the exception of those in foreclosure, grew in May, the second straight month that early-stage (loans 30 to 59 days past due) and adverse (loans 60 to 89 days past due) delinquencies were up on an annual basis. The company's monthly... (read more) Pandemic Reveals Flaws in Loan Reporting Mon, Aug 10, 2020 4:17PM New research by dv01, a loan data agent (LDA) providing securitization reporting and analytics on consumer unsecured, mortgage, small business, and student loans, says the pandemic has revealed serious weaknesses in the reporting structure for mortgages. The company found significant numbers of unreported loan modifications and says it was these types of rep... (read more) Homebuyer Sentiment Continues Previous Decline Fri, Aug 7, 2020 2:38PM Fannie Mae's Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI) faltered a bit in July as it tried to recover from its 29.5-point aggregate plunge in March and April. The index, derived from six questions on the National Housing Survey (NHS), decreased 2.3 points in July to 74.2. Three of the components deceased from June levels, led by a significantly more pessimistic vi... (read more) Marketing, Servicing, Comp Tools; FHA and Ginnie Changes Roll On; Rates Creep Higher Tue, Aug 11, 2020 9:40AM Me: “I want to travel.” Bank account: “Where? To work?” Think of people in their 20s and 30s. They’ve grown up with 9/11, the Financial Crisis, and now this coronavirus. (If all you cared about was the stock market, in 1990 the Dow Jones was around 5,000. It is now nearly 28,000, give or take.) Kids now? In March, and through th... (read more) Latest Video Hudson Yards developer on how the pandemic has hit commercial real estate Covid-19 mortgage bailout rates improve more rapidly US producer price index rose 0.6% in July, vs 0.3% increase expected Small business confidence on the economy dips, NFIB survey finds Around the Web NPR In Historic Pick, Joe Biden Taps Kamala Harris To Be His Running Mate NPR The Big Ten Postpones Football, Other Fall Sports Over Coronavirus Concerns NAHB Eye on Housing Softwood Lumber Costs Up Nearly 30% Over Three Months, Push Building Materials Prices Higher in July Redfin Homes Flying Off Market at Record Pace46% Accept an Offer Within 2 Weeks NPR 'Not Enough Time': Census Workers Fear Rushing Count Could Botch Results NPR Skepticism Greets Putin's Announcement Of Russian Coronavirus Vaccine CNBC What you need to know about Trump's executive order on payroll tax deferrals CNBC Trump's $400 unemployment boost would give Americans $708 a week, on average Calculated Risk Blog CoreLogic: "Overall Mortgage Delinquency Rates Beginning to Climb" CNBC This number shows a stunning reversal in the chances of Main Street's survival CNBC Coronavirus live updates: Russia plans phase three trials of world's first approved vaccine, offers little safety data CNBC New U.S. sanctions add uncertainty for global banks looking to tap China market CNBC Here's what happened to the stock market on Monday

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