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Today's first chart shows the trend we've been following in 10yr Treasury yields. It is pointed in an unfriendly direction (i.e. "up"), but at a fairly gentle pace in the bigger picture. Even then, such trends are by no means crystal balls. At best, they can provide some lines on either side of whatever road we're currently on. With that in mind, we'd reached the lower end of the range last Thursday and had begun to bounce by Friday. Now this week, the first two trading days are confirming the bounce (unless today's losses fade).
The reassuring part of today's weaker performance so far is that it has required some specific motivation. In other words, bonds haven't moved to higher yields simply because this trend says they are supposed to. In today's case, it was a massive stimulus announcement from the European Commission at 7am. Before that, Treasuries were actually doing a good job of resisting the stock market's incessant beckoning back into a riskier realm.
There are no big ticket events on the economic calendar today, which makes this a break in the action before the schedule gets significantly more active on Thursday and Friday. The only notable inclusion on the event calendar is the 5yr Treasury auction at 1pm ET--the biggest ever at $45 bln (but not extraordinarily bigger than the $41 bln seen frequently in the past 18 months).
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MBS Commentary
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Today's first chart shows the trend we've been following in 10yr Treasury yields. It is pointed in an unfriendly direction (i.e. "up"), but at a fairly gentle pace in the bigger picture. Even then, such trends are by no means crystal ball... (read more) |
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Housing News
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Purchase mortgage applications rose for the 6 th straight week, driving the Mortgage Bankers Association's Market Composite Index back into positive territory. The Index, a measure of mortgage loan application volume, increased 2.7 percent on a seaso... (read more) |
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Mortgage Rate Watch
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Mortgage rates hit new all-time lows last week. In fact, for many lenders, records were broken on more than one day. That raised the risk of a bounce back this week and if today is any indication, that's what we're seeing. The average lender is back ... (read more) |
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Housing News
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Freddie Mac reported this week that its total mortgage portfolio increased at an annualized rate of 14.3 percent in April, up from a 9.2 percent gain in March and the largest rate since December. The portfolio balance at the end of the period was $2.... (read more) |
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Rob Chrisman
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Making the rounds is, “The spread of Covid-19 is based on two factors. #1: How dense the population is. #2: How dense the population is.” As a nation, we remain divided on virtually everything about COVID. There is well-written article on... (read more) |
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Housing News
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New home sales, rather than dropping like a rock, rose 0.6 percent in April according to the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. Part of the gain is due to a revision of the March sales numbers from an original est... (read more) |
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