Are we or are we not headed toward a global economic contraction in mid-to-late 2019?  Or are such things on hold for another year or two?  Inquiring traders want to know.  They'd been trading as if a contraction was a more imminent ... (read more)

Global economic data is big business for the bond market these days.  With no end in sight to the domestic economic expansion (note: 1.6% vs 0.9% f'cast in today's Retail Sales and another decades-long low in Jobless Claims), any recessionary risks have been pinned on the two biggest economies that have been sending the weakest cues: Europe and China. ... (read more)

For the second month in a row we find ourselves stating that Fannie Mae's forecast , while still predicting a slowdown in economic growth this year, appears overall more upbeat than in the previous month . The April report is still predicting that growth will slow from 3.0 percent in 2018 (which is itself a revision from the 3.1 percent estimate that prevail... (read more)

The question this morning was whether March's existing home sales could build on the strong numbers posted in February, an 11.8 percent increase from the prior month with a seasonally adjusted pace of 5.51 million. It was the largest gain in more than three years. The consensus was that they would not. The forecasters were spot on. The National Association o... (read more)

Contrary to expectations, all three of the residential construction measures from the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development fell in March . Not only were they lower than in February, but they were down year-over-year, and both permits and housing starts are running behind 2018 on a year-to-date (YTD) basis. The West was the o... (read more)

Remember NINA loans from 10-15 years ago where the lender would purposely discard anything in the file dealing with income because underwriters didn’t want documentation? Several lenders are now promoting no income, no asset non-owner loans. For example, 360 Mortgage is now promoting its NINA investor loans . We’re at the point where borrowers mu... (read more)