Mortgage rates moved back over the 5% threshold, on average, for the first time since early 2011 today following mixed data on the jobs market. Why would "mixed data" be such a problem? It's not, per se, but in this case, it reinforced certain trends that have posed big problems for rates. Namely, the annual pace of wage growth has now held at 2.8% or above for 4 months in a row. Previously, 2.8% was an isolated occurrence and sort of a magical line in the sand. Analysts and policy-makers lamented "frustratingly tepid wage growth" when we were below that line. Now that we're on the other side, the prevailing belief/fear is that wage growth is high enough to put upward pressure on inflation, and that's a big problem for interest rates (inflation is one of rates' mortal enemies). I don't want

October 5, 2018 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: 30 Yr. Fixed 6.28% -0.01%   6.11% 7.26% 15 Yr. Fixed 5.65% +0.05%   5.54% 6.59% 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.25% +0.00%   6.25% 7.45% Compare Mortgage Rates from Local Lenders for Oct 5, 2018 Mortgage Rates Are Officially Back to 5% Fri, Oct 5, 2018 3:21PM Mortgage rates moved back over the 5% threshold, on average, for the first time since early 2011 today following mixed data on the jobs market. Why would "mixed data" be such a problem? It's not, per se, but in this case, it reinforced certain trends that have posed big problems for rates. Namely, the annual pace of wage growth has now held at 2.8% or above for 4 months in a row. Previously, 2.8% was an isolated occurrence and sort of a magical line in the sand. Analysts and policy-makers lamented "frustratingly tepid wage growth" when we were below that line. Now that we're on the other side,... (read more) Mortgage Rates Are Anything But Lower This Week! Thu, Oct 4, 2018 3:44PM If you don't happen to make it past this first sentence, just know that anyone telling you rates are much higher today is NOT lying to you. Anyone telling you the opposite is wrong, even though they may not understand why they're wrong. Coming to such an understanding is no harder than reading the next few paragraphs. Mortgage rates can be tricky to follow, at first glance. They're not quite like other rates that move frequently throughout the day and that are published in a standardized format in multiple obvious locations. I'm thinking of something like the 10yr Treasury yield for the sake o... (read more) Mortgage News Daily Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.28% -0.01 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.65% +0.05 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 5.94% -0.01 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.25% 0.00 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 5.62% +0.03 0.00 30 Yr. VA 5.95% -0.02 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 9/8 Freddie Mac Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.50% -0.06 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.60% -0.09 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 9/4 Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.64% -0.05 0.59 15 Yr. Fixed 5.84% -0.19 0.84 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.58% -0.09 0.39 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 9/3 UMBS 30YR 5.5 101.26 -0.02   97.47 101.61 UMBS 30YR 6.0 102.50 -0.04   99.66 102.50 10 YR Treasury 4.047 +0.008   3.621 4.780 MBS Live Day Ahead: The Readiness is All Fri, Oct 5, 2018 8:30AM At this point, there's nothing left to be said or done in preparation for today's NFP data.  Bonds stand on the edge of the most recent abyss.  This time it's 3.20-3.24%-ish.  The specific level really doesn't matter (sorry Gundlach).  It's just another visit to long-term highs that will either become a ceiling for some indeterminate time... (read more) MBS Live Recap: It Can Always Go Either Way Thu, Oct 4, 2018 4:48PM If you're looking for today's recap, check out the Huddle.  Or just know that we sold-off a bit more and then settled sideways, fairly close to yesterday's highest rates.  Mortgage lenders dinged rate sheets just a bit more and we're now waiting to see the effects from tomorrow morning's jobs data. If you're looking for what some might call wis... (read more) MBS Price Change UMBS 5.0 99.74 -0.04 UMBS 5.5 101.26 -0.02 UMBS 6.0 102.50 -0.04 GNMA 5.0 100.05 -0.03 GNMA 5.5 101.21 +0.02 GNMA 6.0 102.15 -0.04 Pricing as of: 9/9 1:59AM EST US Treasury Yield Change 2 YR Treasury 3.496 +0.009 5 YR Treasury 3.570 +0.008 7 YR Treasury 3.775 +0.006 10 YR Treasury 4.048 +0.009 30 YR Treasury 4.693 +0.003 Pricing as of: 9/9 1:59AM EST Other News Artificial Intelligence Improves Profitability, Efficiency, and Customer Experience Fri, Oct 5, 2018 10:52AM Mortgage lenders have been increasingly reporting tighter margins as costs rise for each actual loan transaction. In the last few years the principal reason behind this as revealed in Fannie Mae's quarterly Mortgage Lender Sentiment Survey has been increased competition for customers. As the demand for ref inancing has fallen, purchase originations have not ... (read more) Broker, Correspondent, Digital Products; Promotions, Layoffs, PE-Owned Lender Closures Fri, Oct 5, 2018 8:58AM “Rob, is any lender making money out there?” Well, what’s the old “joke?” “How do you get $5 million in the mortgage biz? Start with $10 million!” Not so funny when it’s real. Few companies are prospering, and what I hear more is, “We hope to outlast our competition by cutting costs and since we have deep... (read more) Latest Video Job growth slows in September Rates are rising for good reasons, but that's the biggest risk to the marke... Santelli Exchange: Lazear on the jobs report and rising interest rates Around the Web Calculated Risk Blog Q3 GDP Forecasts Bloomberg The Next US Recession Is Moving Further Away Calculated Risk Blog Annual Vehicle Sales: On Pace to decline in 2018 Calculated Risk Blog Comments on September Employment Report Redfin For-Sale Home Supply Surges In Hot West Coast Markets Reuters N.Y. 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