Fannie Mae's economists have upgraded their second quarter economic forecast but say that may be about it for the year . In their July forecast, the company's Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) Group, headed by Doug Duncan, noted that the expansion just celebrated its ninth anniversary "with a bang." Economic growth in the second quarter may have approached the high in that expansion that occurred almost three years ago. The outlook for housing has turned bearish. Single-family construction starts were up in May for the fourth time in five months but still lagged the post-crash high of last November. (Fannie Mae's economists prepared this report before the June data was released wherein housing starts plummeted by more than 12 percent.) Multifamily starts rebounded in May, reversing about

July 20, 2018 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: 30 Yr. Fixed 6.28% -0.01%   6.11% 7.26% 15 Yr. Fixed 5.65% +0.05%   5.54% 6.59% 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.25% +0.00%   6.25% 7.45% Compare Mortgage Rates from Local Lenders for Jul 20, 2018 Mortgage Rates Back to Flat After Starting Higher Thu, Jul 19, 2018 2:53PM Mortgage rates had a scare today, as they began the day at their highest levels of the month (depending on the lender) only to fall back in line with yesterday (or better!). The reason for the back-and-forth movement has to do with esoteric behind-the-scenes stuff in the bond market. I should be able to make it tangible enough for you, so let's give it a shot. Bonds are the backbone for all interest rates. The bonds that underlie mortgages tend to move almost exactly like 10yr Treasury yields. Treasuries are a great case study to follow when it comes to rates because they are abundant, more ac... (read more) Mortgage News Daily Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.28% -0.01 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.65% +0.05 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 5.94% -0.01 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.25% 0.00 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 5.62% +0.03 0.00 30 Yr. VA 5.95% -0.02 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 9/8 Freddie Mac Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.50% -0.06 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.60% -0.09 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 9/4 Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.64% -0.05 0.59 15 Yr. Fixed 5.84% -0.19 0.84 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.58% -0.09 0.39 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 9/3 UMBS 30YR 5.5 101.26 -0.02   97.47 101.61 UMBS 30YR 6.0 102.51 -0.03   99.66 102.51 10 YR Treasury 4.046 +0.007   3.621 4.780 MBS Live Day Ahead: Back in The Range, But Yield Curve Could Protest Fri, Jul 20, 2018 9:27AM 10yr yields attempted to break above their prevailing range yesterday.  As we discussed in the Day Ahead, it takes more than just an intraday move above a ceiling in order to confirm such a break is taking place.  Ultimately, yesterday's th... (read more) MBS Live Recap: Key Technical Ends Up Providing Support Thu, Jul 19, 2018 4:02PM If you are an MBS Live member, today's recap has already been written in this update and in The Huddle.  Non-MBS Live members can get a pretty solid idea from the free mortgage rate article HERE. For those who don't like to click links, suffice it to say that the upper range boundary that we've been paying so much attention to ended up being the key ... (read more) MBS Price Change UMBS 5.0 99.74 -0.04 UMBS 5.5 101.26 -0.02 UMBS 6.0 102.50 -0.04 GNMA 5.0 100.05 -0.03 GNMA 5.5 101.21 +0.02 GNMA 6.0 102.15 -0.03 Pricing as of: 9/8 10:19PM EST US Treasury Yield Change 2 YR Treasury 3.496 +0.009 5 YR Treasury 3.570 +0.008 7 YR Treasury 3.775 +0.006 10 YR Treasury 4.046 +0.007 30 YR Treasury 4.699 +0.009 Pricing as of: 9/8 10:19PM EST Other News Fannie Sees Growth Slowing, Turns Bearish on Housing Fri, Jul 20, 2018 10:03AM Fannie Mae's economists have upgraded their second quarter economic forecast but say that may be about it for the year . In their July forecast, the company's Economic & Strategic Research (ESR) Group, headed by Doug Duncan, noted that the expansion just celebrated its ninth anniversary "with a bang." Economic growth in the second quarter may have approa... (read more) NAHB Sees Lopsided Growth in Housing Starts Fri, Jul 20, 2018 11:43AM In another dive into data from the Census Bureau's Survey of Construction (SOC), the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) found that one third of the nine census divisions and thus 21 states were responsible for 60 percent of single family housing starts last year. The South Atlantic division encompasses the coastal states stretching from Delaware to... (read more) Flood, Volcano, Hurricane, and Disaster News; Lender Updates Fri, Jul 20, 2018 9:06AM A Small Business Administration analysis found that about 90 percent of the country’s damage costs from natural disasters happen in ZIP codes with less than 20 percent of the country’s population. If you’re in the mood to see what that looks like on a map — or want advice of where not to move — the New York Times has done yeoman... (read more) Latest Video White House official: Trump worries Fed will raise rates twice this year Hirsch: The Fed is the biggest risk for the markets Chase: The yield curve bears watching Around the Web CNBC Trump worries that Fed will raise rates twice this year: White House official Bloomberg If The Fed Changes Course, People Will Now Think It's Political Bloomberg In New York City, Even the Cheapest Homes Are Waiting for Buyers Calculated Risk Blog State Unemployment since 1976 Reuters Factbox: Impact of U.S-China trade tariffs on U.S. companies CNBC Traders expect that the Fed probably will ignore Trump's rate complaints Bloomberg Canada's Economy Strengthens as CPI, Retail Sales Beat Forecasts Calculated Risk Blog BLS: Unemployment Rates Lower in 9 states in June, Oregon at New Low CNBC Biggest risk in bond market isn't rising rates or Fed vs. Trump. It's the inverted yield curve. CNBC Trump hits the Fed again in tweet: 'Tightening now hurts all that we have done' Calculated Risk Blog Has Housing Market Activity Peaked? Bloomberg Putin Hedges Trump Bet by Dumping Treasuries to Safeguard Assets CNBC US Treasury yields higher despite Trump's criticism of the Fed

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