MBSonMND: MBS MID-DAY
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FNMA 3.5
95-16 : +0-04
FNMA 4.0
99-20 : +0-03
FNMA 4.5
102-30 : +0-02
FNMA 5.0
105-18 : -0-01
GNMA 3.5
96-25 : +0-05
GNMA 4.0
101-13 : +0-02
GNMA 4.5
104-20 : +0-02
GNMA 5.0
107-04 : -0-01
FHLMC 3.5
95-10 : +0-05
FHLMC 4.0
99-16 : +0-04
FHLMC 4.5
102-26 : +0-01
FHLMC 5.0
105-13 : +0-00
Pricing as of 11:01 AM EST
Morning Market Updates
A recap of MBS Market Updates provided by MND Analysts and streamed live to the MBSonMND Dashboard .
10:25AM  :  MBS, TSY's Somewhat Improved Following Data
10yr yields moved down to 3.2936 and FNCL 4.5's improved another tick to 102-28 after the 10am econ data failed to show significant improvements over previous readings or versus consensus estimates. Both MBS and TSYs are with a tick of unchanged on the day. There's no further economic data today and volume is still quite low.
10:02AM  :  ECON: ISM Manufacturing Near Consensus
* ISM REPORT ON U.S. MANUFACTURING SHOWS PMI AT 60.4 IN APRIL (CONSENSUS 60.0) VS 61.2 IN MARCH * ISM U.S. MANUFACTURING PRICES PAID INDEX 85.5 IN APRIL (CONSENSUS 83.0) VS 85.0 IN MARCH * ISM U.S. MANUFACTURING EMPLOYMENT INDEX 62.7 IN APRIL VS 63.0 IN MARCH
10:01AM  :  ECON: Construction Spending Beats Consensus
* US MARCH CONSTRUCTION SPENDING +1.4 PCT (CONSENSUS +0.4 PCT) TO $768.9 BLN VS FEB -2.4 PCT (PREV -1.4 PCT) * US MARCH PRIVATE CONSTRUCTION SPENDING +2.2 PCT, PUBLIC SPENDING +0.1 PCT
9:51AM  :  Stocks Fall at Open, MBS Nearly Unchanged
The S&P opened at 1369.25 and rapidly fell to 1366.70. There hasn't been a major response from TSYs or MBS, but both remain near their best levels of the day. 10yr notes are currently fighting resistance at 3.299/3.301 and FNCL 4.5's are now down only a tick on the day at 102-28. Despite being slightly in the red on MBS this morning, several lenders are out with pricing that's microscopically better than Friday's last sheets. 10am Data is next on tap with ISM and Construction Spending.
9:23AM  :  Report on Foreign Holdings of U.S. Securities
The final results from the survey of foreign portfolio holdings of U.S. securities at end-June 2010 were released on 4/29. The survey measured foreign holdings of U.S. securities as of June 30, 2010, to be $10,691 billion, with $2,814 billion held in U.S. equities, $6,921 billion in U.S. long-term debt securities1 (of which $1,159 billion are holdings of asset-backed securities (ABS) 2 and $5,763 billion are holdings of non-ABS securities), and $956 billion held in U.S. short-term debt securities. The previous survey, conducted as of June 30, 2009, measured total foreign holdings of U.S. securities at $9,641 billion, with holdings of $2,252 billion in U.S. equities, $6,240 billion in U.S. long-term debt securities, and $1,149 billion in U.S. short-term debt securities (see Table 1). 1. Long-term debt securities have an original term-to-maturity of over one year. 2. Asset-backed securities are backed by pools of assets, such as pools of residential home mortgages or credit card receivables, which give the security owners claims against the cash flows generated by the underlying assets. Unlike most other debt securities, these securities generally repay both principal and interest on a regular basis, reducing the principal outstanding with each payment cycle.
9:10AM  :  Commodity risk premium drop seen short lived
(Reuters) - A fall in the risk premium for commodity markets on the death of Osama bin Laden will be short lived, with gold and oil in focus on new concerns that al Qaeda may seek retribution by attacking high-profile targets and fuel unrest in the Middle East. "The markets will always react quickly, and in this case it is someone who has been held out as the father of all terrorism," said commodities and mining analyst David Lennox of Fat Prophets in Sydney. "But any easing we might see in oil or gold markets, in my view, will be short lived. The longer-term impact will not be substantial." Investors noted al Qaeda has had years to mount a major attack against an oil terminal or refinery. But security forces in key oil producing nations have so far prevented that. Most attacks against U.S. interests have been by a Yemeni affiliate, al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP). The group has claimed responsibility for trying in October to send bombs packed in toner cartridges aboard cargo planes bound for the United States. They were intercepted and failed to detonate. AQAP also backed an attempt on Christmas Day 2009 by a Nigerian man who tried but failed to detonate a bomb hidden in his underwear while aboard a U.S. commercial flight as it approached Detroit from Amsterdam. The closest al Qaeda has been to hitting the oil industry was on February 24, 2006, when Saudi forces repelled a suicide attack on the Abqaiq oil-processing center, the world's largest. "Over the last ten years, al-Qaeda has substantially weakened," said Ben Westmore, commodities economist at the National Australia Bank. "I don't think they will be successful at carrying out an attack on an oil facility." (By Nick Trevethan. Additional reporting by Rujun Shen and Alejandro Barbajosa in SINGAPORE, and Siddesh Mayenkar in MUMBAI)
8:41AM  :  Headlines Move Markets on Otherwise Slow Morning
Stocks futures rallied and Treasuries weakened last night following news of Bin Laden's death. S&P futures got as high as 1372.50, but have already fallen to 1366, highlighting the fairly inconsequential market impact this event should ultimately have. 10yr yields are currently just over 2 bps higher at 3.121. MBS are doing slightly better. After putting in their highest closing mark (by half a tick!) of 2011, FNCL 4.5's are down 2 ticks at 102-27. The first scheduled economic data today comes in the form of Construction Spending and ISM Manufacturing, both at 10:00am. The Fed will be buying in the 8-10 year range, around 7 billion. The ongoing Fed coupon passes in addition to the supportive aspects of month-end combine to form the inherently bullish factors this week for the bond market. That bullishness will do battle with the technical picture, which, at the moment suggests a moderation higher in yield to form a range trade ahead of NFP.
Featured Market Discussion
A recap of the featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBSonMND Dashboard .
Ken Crute  :  ".125% worse at 4.75 .125% better at 4.875 "
Matthew Graham  :  "185k AR"
Andrew Russell  :  "what is % and # consensus for Friday MG? What is the street saying..."
Daniel Kramer  :  "Increase in Annual Mortgage Insurance Premiums (Paid Monthly) for FHA Loans – Effective April 18, 2011 Effective with case numbers assigned on or after Monday, April 18, the Annual Mortgage Insurance Premium (paid monthly) for FHA loans will increase – based on amortization terms and LTV. Amortization terms Loan-to-Value (LTV) Annual MIP for case numbers assigned prior to April 18 Annual MIP for case numbers assigned on or April 18 Greater than 15 years Less than or equal to 95% 85 bps 110 bps"
Victor Burek  :  "brent please post when you find out so we can verify"
Mike Drews  :  "Chase .05 better this morning c30"
Matthew Graham  :  "3.295 now"
Matthew Graham  :  "10's continuing to fall, volume is low low low"
Matthew Graham  :  " KEN HASEGAWA, COMMODITY DERIVATIVES SALES MANAGER, NEWEDGE, TOKYO: "Absent other news, the death sparked selling in oil and gold, and buying in stocks. But it has only had a passing impact and the markets will eventually return to normal. "It's not that bin-Laden suspended the crude oil production, although he had some influence as a whole. But it does not mean that all the terrorism acts will be gone because of this." "
Matthew Graham  :  "CHIP HANLON, PRESIDENT, DELTA GLOBAL ADVISORS, HUNTINGTON BEACH, CALIFORNIA: "I'm not sure there will be much of a market reaction. He is a figurehead and there is a feel good value in knowing he is gone. But most people think (al Qaeda deputy Ayman) al-Zawahri has been running it for a while now. "There some feel good value and market will like that. There will be a boost for the appropriate politicians, primarily the commander in chief. It doesn't change much about the energy situat"
Matthew Graham  :  "RODOLFO MENDOZA, PRESIDENT, PHILIPPINES INSTITUTE ON PEACE, VIOLENCE AND TERRORISM RESEARCH, PHILIPPINES: "It's a major tactical victory for the U.S. security community, but I expect that the disruption to al Qaeda terror operations will be temporary. I still don't see the end yet for global Islamist militancy." "Osama bin Laden is a global symbol of Islamist extremism but there could be other militants lining up to replace him. "He had established a wide network moving independen"
Matthew Graham  :  " IMATIAZ GUL, SECURITY ANALYST, PAKISTAN: "Obviously his (Osama bin Laden) supporters wherever they are, they would try to stage some sort of protest, but I don't really expect any sort of large protests. "The common Pakistani is so hard-pressed right now because of the other problems and there is only a small portion of support for Osama bin Laden, because of the way this has affected the country in the last 10 years." "For some time there will be a lot of tension between Washing"
Matthew Graham  :  "TETSU AIKAWA, DEPUTY GENERAL MANAGER OF CAPITAL MARKETS, SHINSEI BANK, TOKYO: "It is reasonable to expect an improvement in U.S. consumer sentiment, but that may not be enough to change the course of the U.S. economy. I don't expect the chance of less U.S. involvement in Afghanistan to lead to an improvement in U.S. public finances. "This could increase flows into risk assets like yen and dollar carry trades. It's also possible for some European sovereigns spreads to tighten. "Giv"