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Market Snapshot
Daily Mortgage Rate Survey
  • 30YR
    4.18%
    (-0.02%)
  • 15YR
    3.32%
    (-0.01%)
  • FHA30YR
    3.75%
    (0.00%)
  • Jumbo30YR
    4.02%
    (-0.02%)
  • 5/1ARM
    3.22%
    (-0.01%)
Rates as of: 7/29/14
MBS/Treasury Markets
  • FNMA 3.5
    102-05
    (-0-12)
  • GNMA 3.5
    103-05
    (-0-11)
  • FHLMC 3.5
    101-31
    (-0-11)
  • 2 YR
    0.5747
    (0.0275)
  • 10 YR
    2.5215
    (0.0614)
Prices as of:
Today's MBS Live Stats
  • Market Alerts: 1 New Alerts
  • Lender Reprices: 0 Reported
  • Live Chat w/ LO's: 659 Comments
  • Live Econ Calendar: 12 Events
  • Text / Email Price Alerts: 6,902 Delivered
Learn more about MBS Live!
Recently Released Data
Report Date Value Change
Mortgage Apps 7/23/14 349.4 2.43%
Refinance Index 7/23/14 1382.3 4.14%
Purchase Index 7/23/14 168.3 0.30%
NAHB Builder Confidence Jun'14 49.00 8.89%
Existing Home Sales May'14 4,890,000 4.94%
Construction Spending May'14 $956B 0.11%
Pending Home Sales May'14 103.9 6.13%
New Home Sales May'14 504,000 18.59%
FHFA Home Price Index Dec'14 208.09 0.67%
TOP HEADLINES
There are plenty of ways to divvy up people (those who like soggy cereal, those that don't, those that can form their tongue into an "o", and those that can't, for example.) Another way is your net worth & attitude toward work. A Merrill Lynch report finds millionaires are twice as likely to keep...
It was a mixed and largely directionless week for mortgage applications as the volume of applications for home purchases inched up fractionally while applications for refinancing fell . The Mortgage Bankers Association said its Market Composite Index, a measure of loan application volume was down slightly...
 
 
What's Included Here?
News Stream
  • GDP growth here to stay?    CNBC  - a few seconds ago
  • Why bond market is at risk    CNBC  - a few seconds ago
  • Strong second quarter sparks rate hike talk    CNBC  - 8 mins ago
  • Not feeling like a 4% economy: Aetna CEO    CNBC  - 9 mins ago
  • MarketWatch First Take: How much did subprime loans fuel the GDP boom?    Market Watch  - 11 mins ago
  • Banks' Slowdown on Mortgage Aid Hurts Borrowers, Audit Says - Bloomberg    Bloomberg  - 15 mins ago
  • MBS LIVE ALERT Issued: Learn more about MBS Live MBS Live  - 18 mins ago
  • The Importance of FinCEN & SARS; Fannie/Freddie Updates; Upcoming Events    MND  - 51 mins ago
  • Slow, Mixed Week for Mortgage Applications    MND  - 1 hr, 53 mins ago
  • GDP up 4.0%    CNBC  - 2 hrs, 8 mins ago
  • ADP July payrolls up 218,000    CNBC  - 2 hrs, 8 mins ago
  • Private sector payrolls come in weak in July    CNBC  - 2 hrs, 12 mins ago
  • U.S. Economy Grew 4% in Second Quarter    rss.nytimes.com  - 2 hrs, 12 mins ago
  • GDP +4.0 Percent. Bond Markets Sharply Weaker, but Holding For Now    MND Micro News  - 2 hrs, 20 mins ago
    • Q2 GDP +4.0 vs +3.0 forecast
    • Q1 revised to -2.1 from -2.9
    • Consumer Spending +2.5 vs +1.2 previously
    • Business Inventory Change +$93.4 bln, adds 1.66% to GDP, biggest contribution since Q4 2011

    Naturally, bond markets are much weaker on the strong data.  10yr yields rose a quick 4bps to 2.50+ and MBS fell 8 ticks to 102-08 (Fannie 3.5s).  For now, however, that's as far as the selling has gotten, and there's a fighting chance that we bounce here.  Time will tell.  

    4.0 vs 3.0 may seem like a big beat, but to reiterate something in this morning's Day Ahead, that 3.0 was potentially artificially lower than it otherwise would have been.  Here's the relevant part:

    "This is a classic case study in market psychology!  Human psychology even!  You've perhaps heard of "the bump" when it comes to sales negotiations.  This is no different.  The ridiculously low print for Q1 has market participants broadly convinced that today will be worse than they otherwise would predict."

    In fact, the range of forecasts went as high as 5.2%!  4.0 may well have been closer to objective reality, had forecasters not been so scarred by the -2.9 in Q1 (now revised to -2.1).

    While the selling pressure is minimal so far, it sets us up for a bit of an uphill battle over the next 2 days.  The burden of proof now falls to the bond bulls, and we'd need a friendly FOMC Statement this afternoon (that would be one that doesn't say anything new, basically), and a 'miss' on Friday's payrolls numbers.

    (hide)
  • Bond Markets Bounce Back Toward Unchanged After ADP; GDP Coming Up    MND Micro News  - 2 hrs, 40 mins ago

    The overnight session was largely uneventful as European bond markets essentially took the day off from volatility.  Instead, German Bunds moved gently higher from the technical resistance created by yesterday's all time low yields.

    Treasuries moved higher at a slightly quicker pace, possibly with some anxiety over today's heavy economic calendar.  The first relief of the day was in with ADP Employment missing to the tune of 218k vs 230k forecast.  By the time you read this, GDP will be out, and we'll be on to the next move.

    (hide)
  • MBS Day Ahead: Big Potential for Bond Markets, for Better or Worse    MND  - 3 hrs, 37 mins ago
  • 5 Things to Watch in Wednesday's U.S. GDP Report    WSJ  - 14 hrs, 36 mins ago
  • Economic Scene: Income Inequality And the Ills Behind It    rss.nytimes.com  - 14 hrs, 43 mins ago
  • MBS RECAP: Bonds Bounce Back From Mid-Day Swoon    MND  - 18 hrs, 10 mins ago
  • Freddie Mac 2014 Second Quarter Refinance Report    freddiemac.mwnewsroom.com  - 18 hrs, 26 mins ago
  • We've extended the comment period for our complaint narrative policy    CFPB  - 18 hrs, 26 mins ago
  • Mortgage Rates Slightly Lower; Volatility Ahead    MND  - 19 hrs, 5 mins ago
  • Fed exit will end badly: Economist    CNBC  - 19 hrs, 5 mins ago
  • Gauging nation's housing market    CNBC  - 19 hrs, 5 mins ago
  • US to sanction Russian banks: Reuters    CNBC  - 19 hrs, 5 mins ago
  • US to sanction additional Russian banks    CNBC  - 19 hrs, 6 mins ago
  • MBS LIVE ALERT Issued: Learn more about MBS Live MBS Live  - 19 hrs, 20 mins ago
  • Consumer Confidence MUCH Stronger Than Expected, adding to Bond Market Pull-Back    MND Micro News  - 19 hrs, 20 mins ago

    The day's only significant econ data--Consumer Confidence--was much stronger than expected.  It took bond markets a few minutes to commit to a reaction, but when the did, it was understandably weaker.  The major caveat to the weakness is that US bond markets are also taking cues from European trading and domestic equities in addition to the Confidence numbers.  In general, it seems like EU trading is keeping a lid on US bond market weakness.

    Fannie 3.5s are down to 102-14 from 102-18 highs earlier this morning and 10yr yields moved up from 2.46 to 2.476 after the data.  As of now, we're still seeing both MBS and Treasuries poke and prod at slightly weaker levels.  In other words, there's no discernible "bounce" yet (but we may be working on one now, hopefully).  If we continue losing ground at this pace, negative reprices could become possible shortly.

    Here's the run-down on the Confidence data:

    • July Consumer Confidence 90.9 vs 85.3 forecast
    • June revised to 86.4 from 85.2
    • Present Situation 88.3 vs 86.3 last month
    • Expectations Index 92.7 vs 86.4 previously
    • "jobs-hard-to-get" 30.7 vs 30.7 previously
    • overall confidence headline is highest since Oct 2007

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  • Bond Markets Surge as Domestic Session Begins, Here's Why...    MND Micro News  - 19 hrs, 20 mins ago

    If there's a kind of storm that's not quite perfect, but still pretty darn good, this morning's confluence of events is getting there.  Here are the ingredients

    1. European debt rally (a big one).  German Bunds moved into new all-time lows overnight and went on another push lower as the US session began.  This coincided with #2.

    2. Month-End buying.  With certain investors needing to buy a certain amount of Treasuries/MBS before the end of the month and with prices moving quickly higher this morning, we're seeing what can only be some month-end buying.  For more on that, read this: 'Month-End Buying,' And Its Effect on Bond Markets.
     
    3. Short-Covering.  Short covering happens when traders who were betting on rates moving higher, are forced to buy bonds as yields move lower in order to prevent further losses.  So with #1 and #2 making for an extra push toward lower yields, short-covering merely acts as an accelerant.

    If one of these three things is doing the most to motivate the US bond market rally, it's the European debt rally.  By that same rationale, when it changes course, that's when our rally this morning stands the greatest chance of bouncing or leveling off.  Ultimately, we're not breaking into any new ground today with respect to the recently low/narrow rate range.

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  • Bond Markets Holding in Better Territory After 5yr Auction    MND Micro News  - 19 hrs, 20 mins ago

    In the hour and a half since the strong 5yr Treasury auction, bond markets have done a good job of bouncing back and holding gains.  The initial improvement was fairly quick, and leveled off within the first 30 minutes--forming a narrow little consolidative range.

    Only in the past few minutes have MBS and Treasuries moved out of that range and into stronger territory.  We had a few non-sequitur negative reprices even after the bounce back, but that seems less likely now.  If anything, positive reprices are more likely.

    Fannie 3.5s are currently up 5 ticks at 102-16 and 10yr yields are down 2.9bps at 2.462.

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Mortgage and Real Estate Video News
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