Today, 9:18 AM
Markets were largely flat overnight but volatility picked up just after 7am ET after headlines suggested US/Iran negotiations could resume as early as...
Thu, Apr 23 2026, 4:43 PM
Volatility Picked Up Despite Lackluster News Quality
It's not exactly a new problem, but the issue of incorr...
Thu, Apr 23 2026, 9:14 AM
Bonds were almost perfectly flat in the overnight session with yields holding inside a 1.5bp range. Oil prices rose initially, but recovered before th...
Wed, Apr 22 2026, 4:09 PM
Uncertainty Extended Indefinitely
Heading into last night's ceasefire expiration, there was a sense that the...
Wed, Apr 22 2026, 10:11 AM
As a testament to just how confident the market is/was that neither side is overly interested in escalating the Iran war, Tuesday night's ceasefire de...
Tue, Apr 21 2026, 3:49 PM
Ceasefire Uncertainty Adds to Losses
Bonds were just a bit weaker this morning after the weekly ADP data. Ju...
Tue, Apr 21 2026, 9:03 AM
Heading into the day, the 8:30am Retail Sales data was the obvious pick among the available economic reports to be a potential market mover. Reality h...
Mon, Apr 20 2026, 4:24 PM
Bonds Only Modestly Weaker After New Escalation Over The Weekend
Bonds/oil/stocks saw a small corrective bou...
Mon, Apr 20 2026, 9:34 AM
Heading into the weekend, all indications were about as promising as they have been that the war was heading toward a peaceful conclusion. This was re...
Fri, Apr 17 2026, 4:29 PM
AM Gains Mostly Stick Around
Everything interesting about today occurred before 9am ET (several war-related ...
Fri, Apr 17 2026, 9:20 AM
Bonds were modestly and inconsequentially stronger in the overnight session. By 8am, this brought 10yr yields just under 4.30%. Less than an hour lat...
Thu, Apr 16 2026, 4:26 PM
Volatility Picked Up After a Slow Start
This morning, more than halfway through the international trading da...
Thu, Apr 16 2026, 9:33 AM
Thursday has thus far been the slowest and most sideways day since February 24th, before the start of the Iran war. A lull in war-related developments...
Wed, Apr 15 2026, 3:59 PM
Very Small Token Pull-Back
Nothing really happened on Wednesday as far as the bond market was concerned. Yie...
Wed, Apr 15 2026, 10:34 AM
Markets have plenty of war-related headlines to digest at any given moment these days. And while some of those headlines have been the biggest market ...
Tue, Apr 14 2026, 4:27 PM
Bonds Ultimately Follow Oil's Lead, Heading Lower War-Related Optimism
While there were no incredibly memora...
Tue, Apr 14 2026, 10:29 AM
Bonds were fairly flat overnight and haven't moved much so far in the domestic session. More importantly, until 7am, bonds were slightly weaker even a...
Mon, Apr 13 2026, 4:08 PM
Weekend Selling Reverses After Another Round of De-Escalation Headlines
Another day, another chance to sort ...
Mon, Apr 13 2026, 10:22 AM
Heading into the weekend, the big news was that the U.S. and Iran would meet in Pakistan to negotiate a peace deal. But by Sunday morning, the talks h...
Fri, Apr 10 2026, 4:22 PM
Bonds Drift Weaker Despite Lower Oil Prices
Although they still technically made positive progress versus th...
Fri, Apr 10 2026, 9:06 AM
The median forecast for monthly core CPI was 0.28% (0.3 after rounding up for most econ calendars). Today's actual number was 0.196--obviously quite a...
Thu, Apr 9 2026, 3:55 PM
Roughly Unchanged After Moderate Headline-Driven Volatility
As has been the recent custom, there were duelin...
Thu, Apr 9 2026, 9:08 AM
The overnight session leading into this morning's open was completely sideways--especially compared to yesterday's example. The boatload of econ data ...
Wed, Apr 8 2026, 4:33 PM
Bonds Lose Almost All The Overnight Gains
Bonds rallied sharply overnight--adding onto an already decent ral...
Wed, Apr 8 2026, 9:06 AM
The wheels were already in motion by the time yesterday's recap came out, and participants in the MBS Live chat room were already high-fiving as we wa...
Tue, Apr 7 2026, 4:39 PM
Wednesday Could Be Entirely Different
April 7th has been one of the most important days on the calendar for ...
Tue, Apr 7 2026, 9:34 AM
Tonight brings 8pm ET deadline for Iran's response to U.S. demands (opening shipping channels among other things). If there's no response, Trump has t...
Mon, Apr 6 2026, 3:33 PM
Holiday-Adjacent Waiting Game
Monday may not have been an official holiday for the U.S. bond market, but it ...
Mon, Apr 6 2026, 9:36 AM
Much of the international trading community remains on holiday today, making for lower volume and liquidity in the US. Bonds have managed to mostly sh...
Fri, Apr 3 2026, 12:52 PM
Nothing Else Happened After Initial Selling
The typical early close for the bond market is 2pm ET. This is u...
Fri, Apr 3 2026, 9:58 AM
Today's jobs report is/was the only big-ticket calendar event and the most obvious source of bond market inspiration. That's doubly true considering t...
Thu, Apr 2 2026, 3:54 PM
Bonds Recover on Oil Price Hopes
Bonds were weaker to start the day with oil prices moving sharply higher af...
Thu, Apr 2 2026, 9:11 AM
Things don't always happen like you'd expect. There was some buzz yesterday in the run up to yesterday night's Trump speech. Even during the domestic ...
Wed, Apr 1 2026, 4:07 PM
Surprisingly Light Volatility
Bonds digested several big ticket economic reports as well as a host of war-re...
Wed, Apr 1 2026, 9:38 AM
Bonds rallied modestly in the overnight session after Trump said the US may exit the war soon. Those gains have been more than erased (just barely) af...
Tue, Mar 31 2026, 4:28 PM
Another Day of Gains With Some Quarter-End Distortion
Q1 was fairly eventful for the bond market with solid-...
Tue, Mar 31 2026, 10:35 AM
The focal point of the overnight news cycle was a report that administration officials said Trump is willing to end the war even if the Strait of Horm...
Mon, Mar 30 2026, 9:12 AM
There are three distinct reasons that could account for bonds paradoxically rallying overnight despite oil prices remaining high and an absence of mea...
Fri, Mar 27 2026, 4:16 PM
Some Resilience After AM Weakness
10yr yields are set to end the week at the highest levels since last July,...
Fri, Mar 27 2026, 10:12 AM
Markets were presented with an opportunity just before the close yesterday to put their faith in another ceasefire-style announcement, but have instea...
Thu, Mar 26 2026, 4:11 PM
That Escalated Quickly
It would be easy to check in on the bond market at some point on Thursday afternoon a...
Thu, Mar 26 2026, 9:21 AM
Bonds yields stayed lower than oil prices suggested yesterday afternoon. The same is true this morning, but oil prices have risen enough to lead bonds...
Wed, Mar 25 2026, 4:04 PM
Noticeably Lighter Volatility. Why?
Wednesday offered a welcome break from the pervasive volatility seen sin...
Wed, Mar 25 2026, 9:39 AM
There have been various comments from U.S. officials about ending the war for several weeks (i.e. on March 9th, Trump said the war could be over soon)...
Tue, Mar 24 2026, 4:03 PM
Juxtaposition of Escalation and De-escalation Keeping Bonds Volatile
Tuesday was notable for financial marke...
Tue, Mar 24 2026, 9:43 AM
Even though there were doubts about their scope and impact, yesterday morning's headlines introduced the prospect of some sort of ceasefire in the Ira...
Mon, Mar 23 2026, 3:54 PM
Decent Gains Amid De-Escalation Headlines
Don't worry about what actually happened, who actually spoke to wh...
Mon, Mar 23 2026, 9:26 AM
Up until roughly 7am ET, it was a rough night for the bond market. 10yr yields had been selling off steadily throughout, hitting 4.443% by 6:45am. The...
Fri, Mar 20 2026, 5:21 PM
Global Bond Market in Reprice Mode
Around here, "reprice" typically refers to mid-day rate changes from mort...
Fri, Mar 20 2026, 9:46 AM
In the space of 2 days, central banks have completely stolen the spotlight from energy prices, but they have relied on energy prices to do so. More si...
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