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MBS Pricing
  Settlement Price Change
MBS
30YR FNMA 3.0   0-00 0-00
30YR FNMA 3.5   0-00 0-00
30YR FNMA 4.0   0-00 0-00
30YR FNMA 4.5   0-00 0-00
30YR FNMA 5.0   0-00 0-00
30YR GNMA 3.0   0-00 0-00
30YR GNMA 3.5   0-00 0-00
30YR GNMA 4.0   0-00 0-00
30YR GNMA 4.5   0-00 0-00
30YR GNMA 5.0   0-00 0-00
30YR FHLMC 3.0   0-00 0-00
30YR FHLMC 3.5   0-00 0-00
30YR FHLMC 4.0   0-00 0-00
30YR FHLMC 4.5   0-00 0-00
30YR FHLMC 5.0   0-00 0-00
  Price Change Yield Change
Treasury
2 YR 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
3 YR 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
5 YR 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
7 YR 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
10 YR 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
30 YR 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Change the chart by clicking any security in the list.

MBS Live Updates
  • 4/18
    Reminder: Bond Markets Closed For Good Friday

    Bond markets including MBS are closed for the Good Friday holiday.  Banks are open.  As such, some lenders may issue rate sheets, but past precedent suggests they'll be in line with yesterday's or otherwise conservative.  With no MBS trading, no reprice risk is expected.

  • 4/17
    Selling Ramps up; Negative Reprices All but Guaranteed

    Yet another alert as we have yet another incremental increase in reprice risk.  This one's the biggest as bond markets have taken their sharpest turn for the worse of the day.  10yr yields broke 2.68 support and are over 2.70 currently.  Fannie 4.0s are down 13 ticks on the day with some lenders seeing as much as 12 of those since their first rate sheet.  That means if you haven't seen a reprice yet, you will.

  • 4/17
    Another Incremental Increase for Negative Reprice Risk

    10yr yields have moved fairly quickly to test the 2.68 technical level.  They'd been holding reasonably well at 2.677 until finally breaking over 2.68 moments ago.  MBS moved to new lows at the same time.  Both of pulled back just a bit since then, but not enough to mitigate ongoing negative reprice risk.

    Some lenders are now looking at a quarter point of weakness since putting out their first rate sheet.  Reprices are increasingly probably for rate sheets stamped any earlier than 10:15am.

  • 4/17
    Resilient no More; Bonds Break Supportive Levels; More Reprice Potential

    Negative reprices are increasingly possible for lenders who were out with rates before 10am.  After holding onto supportive technical levels near 2.66, 10yr yields just broke to 2.67.  MBS fell from 104-09 to 104-07 in Fannie 4.0s.

  • 4/17
    Bond Markets Slightly Weaker after Philly Fed Data; Reprice Risk Already a Consideration

    The April Philly Fed data was stronger than expected with the headline coming in at 16.6 vs a 10.0 consensus and 9.0 reading in March.  The only mitigating factor was a weaker 6-month outlook (26.6 vs 35.4 previously).  Other than that, all the key components advanced, including the important employment index (6.9 vs 1.7 previously).

    Bond markets hesitated at first, but have now moved to the weakest levels of the day.  If there's a silver lining, it's that they haven't yet broken past the weakest levels from earlier this morning--merely matched them. 

    That leaves 10yr yields at 2.664 and Fannie 4.0s at 104-09, down 6 ticks on the day.  Some lenders are looking at an eighth of a point of weakness since releasing this morning's rate sheets, putting them in a position to consider a negative reprice (though those considerations become more serious and broad-based if we lose a few more ticks). 

    Until and unless we do see a break to weaker levels, this is a refreshing amount of resilience in a situation that would typically elicit a bigger movement. 

  • 4/17
    Back Near Unchanged Levels Ahead of Stock Open

    Roughly 10 minutes after the Jobless Claims data, bond market losses found support just past yesterday's weakest levels.  Incidentally, 10yr yields bounced very close to the 2.66% technical level that we're watching as a gauge of their ability to hold sideways or better in the short term.

    MBS are back within 2 ticks of unchanged levels and 10yr yields are back down to 2.646.  The bounce followed equities futures 'topping out' for the morning.  They've since been relatively sideways ahead of the cash open at 9:30am.

  • 4/17
    Bond Markets Weaker into Domestic Session and After Stronger Claims Data

    Treasuries were mostly flat overnight until about 7am Eastern time.  From there yields rose slowly, along with stock prices, moving from 2.63 to 2.65 ahead of the morning's first economic data: weekly Jobless Claims.

    The data was stronger than expected:

    • 304k claims vs 314k forecast
    • Previous week revised to 302k from 300k
    • Continued Claims 2.739 mln vs 2.795 mln forecast

    Bond markets weakened another few ticks after this data with 10yr yields briefly touching 2.66 just now (2.659 currently) and Fannie 4.0s down 5 ticks at 104-09. 

    The only other significant data this morning arrives at 10am with the Philly Fed Index.  Then bond markets close early at 2pm ahead of tomorrow's full closer for Good Friday.  Participation should trail off rapidly by noon.

  • 4/16
    MBS and Treasuries Holding Narrow Ranges at Best Levels

    Today continues to be wholly uneventful for bond markets.  After beginning the domestic session just barely inside yesterday's weakest levels, both MBS and Treasuries have simply been drifting sideways and slightly higher in price (lower in yield).

    To reinforce the notion that this is uneventful, MBS still haven't broken into positive territory with Fannie 4.0s down 1 tick on the day at 104-15.  10yr yields are just about 1bp higher than yesterday at 2.6373.

    That said, MBS are an eight of a point higher from the time of day that some lenders released their first rate sheets.  As such, positive reprices are an outside possibility for a few of those lenders, but an eighth of a point is really only the threshold beyond which reprices become possible. 

    It would take a bit more positivity to make them 'probable' outside the one or two lenders that reprice most aggressively.  Additionally, as of right now, we haven't moved past that threshold.  Uneventful...

  • 4/16
    Stronger Manufacturing Data Gives Bond Markets Pause

    Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization data came out stronger than expected just now.  Here's the run-down:

    • March Industrial Output +0.7 vs +0.5 forecast
    • Big revision in February to +1.2 from +0.6 previously
    • Capacity Use Rate 79.2 vs 78.7 forecast, highest since June 2008

    10yr yields moved relatively quickly to their highest levels of the day.  MBS mimicked the move with less conviction, but are still falling on the data.  Fannie 4.0s are currently down 5 ticks at 104-11 and Fannie 3.5s are down 6 ticks at 101-03.

  • 4/16
    Holding Ground in Weaker Territory After Lackluster Housing Data

    Bond markets were weaker overnight, further backing away from the geopolitical risk-driven rally that took place yesterday morning.  Stronger Chinese GDP also helped markets move back towards 'risk' (stocks and bond yields higher). 

    By the open, 10yr yields and MBS were both almost perfectly back in line with yesterday's weakest levels.  So far, they've gone no higher thanks to a weaker-than-expected reading on Housing Starts. 

    • March Housing Starts 946k vs 973k forecast
    • February Housing Starts revised to 920k from 907k
    • Housing Permits 990k vs 1008k forecast
    • singe-family permits and starts rose while multifamily fell

    MBS and Treasuries both improved just slightly following the data and are currently at their best levels of the morning.  Stocks are at their weakest levels of the morning--a fact that further helps bond markets in the current environment (where the stock lever has been so well connected).

  • 4/15
    Bond Markets Continue Giving Back Morning Gains; More Negative Reprice Risk

    This morning's flight-to-safety rally for bond markets continues unwinding along with a strong afternoon in stocks.  The latter are almost all the way back to their 10am highs while 10yr Treasuries and MBS are only about halfway there.

    Still, that's enough for negative reprice risk considering MBS prices are 6 and 8/32nds off their previous highs in Fannie 4.0 and 3.5s respectively.  Whereas reprices were only a modest possibility at the time of the last alert, they're increasingly likely as we hold these losses or move lower.  Again though, this won't apply to every lender, especially those who didn't reprice positively earlier in the day.

  • 4/15
    Negative Reprice Risk Already a Consideration for Some Lenders

    For lenders that repriced twice in response to today's rally, or for those that simply released any positive reprice close to the 1pm MBS highs, negative reprice risk is already a consideration as prices have fallen 5-6 ticks since then. 

    Fannie 4.0s are 5/32nds off their 1pm highs at 104-16 and Fannie 3.5s are 6/32nds off their highs at 101-11.  Stocks and bonds have bounced back in unison with the lowest stock prices and bond yields seen right at 1:01pm.  10yr yields are back up to 2.623 now after hitting 2.596 earlier.

    Negative reprices aren't universally likely, but faster-acting lenders will increasingly consider them if we move lower from here.  Keep in mind that some lenders may not have even released a positive reprice yet, in which case negative reprices are not a risk.

  • 4/15
    MBS Now Above Yesterday's Highs; Ongoing Positive Reprice Potential

    Ukraine, as a market mover, went from a distant memory yesterday to 'front and center' for most of today.  As global financial markets weigh the prospects of civil war--chiefly the involvement of larger nations like the US and Russia--bond markets have rallied strongly and stocks have sold-off.

    Treasuries, which benefit more from such flight-to-safety trading, had already broken below yesterday's low yields.  MBS have now joined them in breaking yesterday's best levels, though they continue to lag overall (which is normal in these cases). 

    Still, the incremental improvements make positive reprices incrementally more likely.  We're in a situation now where if you haven't seen a reprice yet, you almost certainly will.  Fannie 4.0s are up a quarter of a point at 104-20 and Fannie 3.5s are up 10/32nds at 101-16.

  • 4/15
    Bond Markets Jump into Positive Territory

    After wallowing around in negative territory all morning, MBS and Treasuries have precipitously moved into the green.  Stock markets are taking part in the move as well.  The timing doesn't line up with any economic data or market events, and thus is assumed to be linked to headlines out of Ukraine.  To a lesser extent, news of a potential pipe bomb in Boston may have contributed to the flight-to-safety.

    At this point, however, the pipe bomb story looks to be resolved (though it was just making the rounds when the move began).  Ukraine headlines, however, are ongoing, and suggest at least a possibility of imminent violence.

    Fannie 4.0s are now up 3 ticks on the day at 104-16 and 10yr yields are down 1.6bps at 2.625. 

  • 4/15
    Bond Markets Holding Ground at Slightly Weaker Levels After Data

    There hasn't been a decisive move in MBS or Treasuries yet, following the 830am economic data.  If you had to assign a label, it's probably "sideways" for now.  The only downside is that bonds were slightly weaker overnight, confirming yesterday's late weakness in MBS.

    The losses haven't been extreme with Fannie 4.0s down only 2 ticks on the day.  10yr yields are up 1.6b3 ps at 2.655--under the 2.663 highs from earlier this morning.

    The economic data was a mixed bag with inflation being slightly hotter than forecast and the NY Fed Manufacturing numbers being weaker.

    CPI

    • +0.2 vs +0.1 forecast 
    • Core CPI (excludes food and energy) +0.2 vs +0.1 forecast
    • Year over year Core CPI +1.7 vs +1.6 forecast

    Markets looked like they might have been reacting to the traction in inflation data right at 8:30am, but perhaps the lackluster manufacturing data helped balance the outlook.

    Empire State Manufacturing

    • +1.29 in April vs +8.0 forecast, +5.61 in March
    • Employment Index +8.16 vs +5.88 in March
    • 6-Month Outlook +38.23 vs +33.21 in March

    The next data this morning will be the NAHB Housing Market Index at 10am.

  • 4/14
    Additional Negative Reprice Risk as MBS Hit New Lows

    A lack of liquidity late in the day (compounded by generally lower participation already in play due to Passover) is leaving sellers in control in bond markets.  The impressive bounce back in equities isn't helping either.

    Despite the lighter participation, prices are prices, and they're at new lows for MBS now.  Fannie 4.0s are now 4/32nds under the prices that prevailed during morning rate sheet print times.  Negative reprices are more likely than they were 15 minutes ago (i.e. "now possible" vs "not very likely").

  • 4/14
    MBS Bouncing Along Lows; Modest Reprice Risk Remains

    Nothing about trading levels has changed since 11am as MBS continue to bounce along at the lowest prices of the day.  On a positive note, they've done a good job of not breaking any lower.  On a negative note, the losses are right around an eighth of a point for some lenders depending on the time of day they generated rate sheets.

    While that suggests most are not at great risk of negative reprices, it also means it can't be ruled out for others (a few already have).  On a qualitative note, losses today would break the recent streak of steady-to-lower rates for the past 6 sessions.

    Reprice risk would increase if Fannie 4.0s move below 104-14 or if Fannie 3.5s move below 101-06.  Technical support at 2.656 in 10yr yields also seems worth glancing at as that's where yields held firm twice this morning (currently 2.643).

  • 4/14
    Back to Weakest Levels as Stocks Rally

    Correlation between bond yields and stock prices continues.  Both began moving higher at 10am.  As stocks crossed into their best levels of the morning, bonds are approaching their weakest levels.

    MBS are down 4 ticks from their highs, putting some lenders right on the edge of negative reprice risk.  Fannie 4.0s are at 104-16 vs 104-20 just before 10am.  10yr yields are up 3.5bps at 2.654.

  • 4/14
    MBS Rally Back to Unchanged As Stocks Fall

    Stocks and bonds haven't been perfectly connected all morning, but are generally moving in the same direction at the same time.  As such, bond markets did a good job of battling back against earlier weakness when stock futures shied away from a stronger rally on the Retail Sales data.

    When stocks hit the 'cash' open at 9:30am, they fell below their 8:30am levels implied by futures.  Bond markets mirrored the move, with MBS rising back above 8:30am levels.

    Both MBS and Treasuries are now at their best levels of the morning.  Fannie 4.0s are unchanged from Friday's latest levels at 104-19 and 10yr yields are still slightly weaker at 2.63.

  • 4/14
    Bond Markets Weaker after Retail Sales Data

    Bond markets are off to a weaker start this morning thanks to a combination of modest losses overnight (stocks and bond yields bounced higher together) and additional selling pressure after a stronger-than-expected Retail Sales report.  Fannie 4.0s are down 4 ticks at 104-15 and Fannie 3.5s are down 6 ticks at 101-06.  10yr yields are up 3.1bps at 2.6. 

    Retail Sales

    • +1.1 vs +0.8 forecast, biggest rise since Sep 2012
    • Excluding Autos/Gasoline +1.0 vs +0.4 last month

    The only other economic data this morning is Business Inventories at 10am, which isn't typically a market-mover.  Of greatest concern at the moment is the fact that this post-data weakness is a vote in favor of the potential technical resistance discussed in this morning's commentary.

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