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MBS Pricing
  Settlement Price Change
30YR FNMA 3.0   0-00 0-00
30YR FNMA 3.5   0-00 0-00
30YR FNMA 4.0   0-00 0-00
30YR FNMA 4.5   0-00 0-00
30YR FNMA 5.0   0-00 0-00
30YR GNMA 3.0   0-00 0-00
30YR GNMA 3.5   0-00 0-00
30YR GNMA 4.0   0-00 0-00
30YR GNMA 4.5   0-00 0-00
30YR GNMA 5.0   0-00 0-00
30YR FHLMC 3.0   0-00 0-00
30YR FHLMC 3.5   0-00 0-00
30YR FHLMC 4.0   0-00 0-00
30YR FHLMC 4.5   0-00 0-00
30YR FHLMC 5.0   0-00 0-00
  Price Change Yield Change
2 YR 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
3 YR 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
5 YR 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
7 YR 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
10 YR 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
30 YR 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Change the chart by clicking any security in the list.

MBS Live Updates
  • 4/23
    Bond Markets Slip After Tepid 5yr Auction; Bouncing Back Already

    Though it's not the exclusive driver of momentum this afternoon, a lackluster 5yr Note auction did give way to a moderate amount of weakness though bond markets were already coming off their highs heading into the noon hour.

    The auction itself wasn't terrible when viewed against longer-term historical averages, but compared to the only 2 examples of the 5yr auction falling within the time-frame of the current range (February and March), it left much to be desired.

    As is typically the case for MBS and 10yr yields when it comes to the 5yr auction, there wasn't a big reaction.  It simply cast another vote for a mild correction that was already underway.  On a positive note, it gave MBS a chance to stay sideways long enough for lenders to offer positive reprices.

    Additionally, in the past few minutes, the weakness looks like the exception rather than the rule.  10yr yields bounced nicely just before hitting 2.70.  MBS similarly held firm at this morning's pivot point 104-08, currently up 6 ticks on the day (same as last update) at 104-09.

  • 4/23
    Bond Markets Slightly Stronger as Conditions Normalize

    The first two days of the week were 'abnormal.'  It's not that they were particularly strange in any alarming way, just that a few of the more common ingredients in the average bond market recipe were missing.  Certainly, volume and participation were the most notable absences, not to mention outright movement (because there wasn't much movement).  We also saw a noticeable breakdown in the recently strong correlation between stock prices and bond yields.

    All that changed overnight and into this morning.  The overnight session saw sensible connections between global economic data and bond market movement.  Weaker data in the Asian session made for a slight boost and stronger data in the European session, a slight detraction.  The net effect was positive for Treasuries overnight, with 10yr yields hitting the domestic session about 2bps lower.

    MBS walked in the door about 2/32nds higher in price and gained another tick since then.  The stock lever has been well connected based on futures trading, so the next major potential for movement is coming up just before and after the 6:30am cash open for stocks.  After that, the first and only significant economic data of the day is out at 10am with New Home Sales.

  • 4/23
    Bond Markets Improve After Ugly New Home Sales Data

    New Home Sales bombed.  Here's the run-down and a chart

    • New Home Sales for March 384k vs 450k forecast, 449k previously
    • 14.5 pct decline, biggest drop since July 2013 (when rate spike hit the numbers)
    • Midwest fared worst -21.5, Northeast improved 12.5 pct
    • Supply jolts higher to 6.0 months worth, 5.0 months previously
    • Median prices hit record high of $290k

    Bond markets moved to their best levels of the day immediately following the data, but not aggressively so.  Stocks also fell, but are already bouncing back.  Bond markets aren't following the bounce though, instead holding near their best levels.

    2014-4-23 NHS

    10 yr yields are down 3.3bps on the day at 2.693 and Fannie 4.0s are up 6 ticks at 104-10. 

  • 4/22
    Very Slight Positive Reprice Potential For Some Lenders

    Bond markets are at their best levels of the day, though there's not really an interesting story as to how they got there.  Reason being: they haven't moved much at all today, with the exception of noticeable ebbs and flows just after 9am and then coming the other way heading into Noon.  Rather than create any new movement, these flows ended in a wash, suggesting possible corporate rate lock hedging (companies selling Treasuries in order to lock in their funding costs between the time their corporate debt offering is priced and when it is fully subscribed--at which point the Treasuries are bought back).

    From the morning lows, Fannie 4.0s and 3.5s are up 4-5 ticks, which is technically enough for any lender pricing during those lows (or close to them) to consider a positive reprice. 

  • 4/22
    Negative Bias Emerging as Participation Picks Up

    As bond market activity gets back to more acceptable levels, the participation that's come into the market has been mostly negative for Treasuries, and slightly less negative for MBS.  Earlier, this merely resulted in slight improvements overnight moving back to unchanged levels, but in the past few minutes it's taken 10yr yields about 2bps into weaker territory, currently 2.7388.

    MBS are only 1-2 ticks weaker from the last update.  Fannie 4.0s are down 2 on the day at 103-31+ and Fannie 3.5s are down 3 ticks at 100-21.  That update also noted a disconnected stock lever, but the timing of the current weakness in bonds combined with stocks presently opening stronger suggests that could be changing.

  • 4/22
    Bond Markets Unchanged and Uninspired

    The week continues to suffer from a lack of participation and excitement (not that excitement is always what we'd want to see when it comes to rates).  Although market participants returned from holiday breaks in Asia and Europe, it didn't do a whole lot to reveal any directional biases.

    Case in point, Treasuries were insignificantly stronger, then weaker overnight and have been hovering around unchanged levels since the domestic session began.  MBS opened a few ticks weaker and gained them back in the first hour.  Fannie 4.0s are 1 tick from unchanged and 3.5s are 2 ticks weaker.

    The only significant economic data of the day is Existing Home Sales at 10am.  Normally, it would make some sense to point out that it's earnings season and uninspired bond markets might take cues from stocks, but so far, the stock lever has been fairly disconnected.

  • 4/21
    Incremental Increase in Reprice Risk as MBS hit New Lows

    Bond markets continue leaking into weaker territory as a particularly low volume and illiquid trading session progresses into the least liquid hours of the day.  Light liquidity simply means that there is a lack of willing buyers and sellers interested in transacting business on the same securities at similar price levels. 

    The simplest conclusion when it comes to these conditions is that the folks that NEED to trade in one direction or the other end up having more of an effect on trading levels than they otherwise would in a more active market.  For instance, if MBS market participants NEED to sell, then buyers can drive prices lower if they see a lack of competition from other buyers.

    At the moment, it's only made for another 1-2 ticks of weakness from the previous alert, but this is enough to bring a few of the early-to-act lenders into the realm of reprice risk consideration.  We still haven't seen enough weakness for widespread reprice risk. 

  • 4/21
    At Session Lows, on the Edge of Negative Reprice Risk

    First thing's first: from the rate sheet print times, in the worst case scenario, lenders are seeing 4/32nds of weakness at current levels.  This puts us right on the outside edge of negative reprice risk and only a few lenders will be considering them at this point. 

    That said, if we fall any further, the next few ticks of weakness would make reprices increasingly likely for the average lender (whereas they're merely "possible" among "aggressive/fast-acting" lenders at the moment). 

    Fannie 4.0s are still up 3 ticks on the day at 104-02, but well off the 104-07 highs earlier.  Fannie 3.5s are also up 3 at 100-25.  10yr yields are close to unchanged at 2.708.

  • 4/21
    Bond Markets In Moderately Stronger Territory Amid Quiet Conditions

    In what can only be described as a logical stroke of genius, at some point in time, Europe and some of Asia decided it would make more sense to set Monday as the Easter-related market holiday as opposed to Good Friday.  As such, the overnight session didn't begin in force until early domestic trading got underway around 6am.

    The small amount of activity seen has at least been positive for bond markets, but for no discernible reason.  A limited amount of trading in Asia carried Treasury yields slightly lower.  Domestic market participants re-set yields back to Thursday's highs and have since moved them down to overnight lows.

    MBS opened stronger and have moved up a few ticks since then, seeing less volatility than Treasuries.  Fannie 4.0s are up 5 ticks at 104-04 and Fannie 3.5s are up 6 ticks at 100-28. 

    Note: Ginnie pricing is showing a 3-5 tick loss, but this is due to the Ginnie-only 'roll' taking place on Thursday, but not being reflected in day-over-day price changes until today.  There is no crazy weakness present in Ginnies.

    There are no significant reports on the calendar this morning and in general, activity is just warming up for slightly better prospects tomorrow.

  • 4/18
    Reminder: Bond Markets Closed For Good Friday

    Bond markets including MBS are closed for the Good Friday holiday.  Banks are open.  As such, some lenders may issue rate sheets, but past precedent suggests they'll be in line with yesterday's or otherwise conservative.  With no MBS trading, no reprice risk is expected.

  • 4/17
    Selling Ramps up; Negative Reprices All but Guaranteed

    Yet another alert as we have yet another incremental increase in reprice risk.  This one's the biggest as bond markets have taken their sharpest turn for the worse of the day.  10yr yields broke 2.68 support and are over 2.70 currently.  Fannie 4.0s are down 13 ticks on the day with some lenders seeing as much as 12 of those since their first rate sheet.  That means if you haven't seen a reprice yet, you will.

  • 4/17
    Another Incremental Increase for Negative Reprice Risk

    10yr yields have moved fairly quickly to test the 2.68 technical level.  They'd been holding reasonably well at 2.677 until finally breaking over 2.68 moments ago.  MBS moved to new lows at the same time.  Both of pulled back just a bit since then, but not enough to mitigate ongoing negative reprice risk.

    Some lenders are now looking at a quarter point of weakness since putting out their first rate sheet.  Reprices are increasingly probably for rate sheets stamped any earlier than 10:15am.

  • 4/17
    Resilient no More; Bonds Break Supportive Levels; More Reprice Potential

    Negative reprices are increasingly possible for lenders who were out with rates before 10am.  After holding onto supportive technical levels near 2.66, 10yr yields just broke to 2.67.  MBS fell from 104-09 to 104-07 in Fannie 4.0s.

  • 4/17
    Bond Markets Slightly Weaker after Philly Fed Data; Reprice Risk Already a Consideration

    The April Philly Fed data was stronger than expected with the headline coming in at 16.6 vs a 10.0 consensus and 9.0 reading in March.  The only mitigating factor was a weaker 6-month outlook (26.6 vs 35.4 previously).  Other than that, all the key components advanced, including the important employment index (6.9 vs 1.7 previously).

    Bond markets hesitated at first, but have now moved to the weakest levels of the day.  If there's a silver lining, it's that they haven't yet broken past the weakest levels from earlier this morning--merely matched them. 

    That leaves 10yr yields at 2.664 and Fannie 4.0s at 104-09, down 6 ticks on the day.  Some lenders are looking at an eighth of a point of weakness since releasing this morning's rate sheets, putting them in a position to consider a negative reprice (though those considerations become more serious and broad-based if we lose a few more ticks). 

    Until and unless we do see a break to weaker levels, this is a refreshing amount of resilience in a situation that would typically elicit a bigger movement. 

  • 4/17
    Back Near Unchanged Levels Ahead of Stock Open

    Roughly 10 minutes after the Jobless Claims data, bond market losses found support just past yesterday's weakest levels.  Incidentally, 10yr yields bounced very close to the 2.66% technical level that we're watching as a gauge of their ability to hold sideways or better in the short term.

    MBS are back within 2 ticks of unchanged levels and 10yr yields are back down to 2.646.  The bounce followed equities futures 'topping out' for the morning.  They've since been relatively sideways ahead of the cash open at 9:30am.

  • 4/17
    Bond Markets Weaker into Domestic Session and After Stronger Claims Data

    Treasuries were mostly flat overnight until about 7am Eastern time.  From there yields rose slowly, along with stock prices, moving from 2.63 to 2.65 ahead of the morning's first economic data: weekly Jobless Claims.

    The data was stronger than expected:

    • 304k claims vs 314k forecast
    • Previous week revised to 302k from 300k
    • Continued Claims 2.739 mln vs 2.795 mln forecast

    Bond markets weakened another few ticks after this data with 10yr yields briefly touching 2.66 just now (2.659 currently) and Fannie 4.0s down 5 ticks at 104-09. 

    The only other significant data this morning arrives at 10am with the Philly Fed Index.  Then bond markets close early at 2pm ahead of tomorrow's full closer for Good Friday.  Participation should trail off rapidly by noon.

  • 4/16
    MBS and Treasuries Holding Narrow Ranges at Best Levels

    Today continues to be wholly uneventful for bond markets.  After beginning the domestic session just barely inside yesterday's weakest levels, both MBS and Treasuries have simply been drifting sideways and slightly higher in price (lower in yield).

    To reinforce the notion that this is uneventful, MBS still haven't broken into positive territory with Fannie 4.0s down 1 tick on the day at 104-15.  10yr yields are just about 1bp higher than yesterday at 2.6373.

    That said, MBS are an eight of a point higher from the time of day that some lenders released their first rate sheets.  As such, positive reprices are an outside possibility for a few of those lenders, but an eighth of a point is really only the threshold beyond which reprices become possible. 

    It would take a bit more positivity to make them 'probable' outside the one or two lenders that reprice most aggressively.  Additionally, as of right now, we haven't moved past that threshold.  Uneventful...

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