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MBS Pricing
  Settlement Price Change
MBS
30YR FNMA 3.0   0-00 0-00
30YR FNMA 3.5   0-00 0-00
30YR FNMA 4.0   0-00 0-00
30YR FNMA 4.5   0-00 0-00
30YR FNMA 5.0   0-00 0-00
30YR GNMA 3.0   0-00 0-00
30YR GNMA 3.5   0-00 0-00
30YR GNMA 4.0   0-00 0-00
30YR GNMA 4.5   0-00 0-00
30YR GNMA 5.0   0-00 0-00
30YR FHLMC 3.0   0-00 0-00
30YR FHLMC 3.5   0-00 0-00
30YR FHLMC 4.0   0-00 0-00
30YR FHLMC 4.5   0-00 0-00
30YR FHLMC 5.0   0-00 0-00
  Price Change Yield Change
Treasury
2 YR 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
3 YR 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
5 YR 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
7 YR 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
10 YR 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
30 YR 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Change the chart by clicking any security in the list.

MBS Live Updates
  • 5/25
    Mid-Day Commentary and a Chart of the Catalonia Effect
    Bond markets made a quick head fake in a weaker direction following the better-than-expected Consumer Sentiment release at 9:55am, but must have quickly remembered that it's Europe, and not the domestic consumer, that's at the heart of the ongoing epic flight-to-safety. Indeed, today is one of those days where bond markets and the European currency are very well linked-up, the latter taking it's first major cue of the morning on news out of Spain that its wealthiest province officially asked for help from the Spanish government to service its debt. Since then, the Euro fell to test a technical boundary at 1.25, which set up the lows that began the ensuing range trade with the highs ostensibly inspired by levels immediately preceding the Spain news. It's all right here in this chart...
  • 5/25
    ECON: Consumer Sentiment Highest Since 2007
    * Consumer Sentiment at 79.3 vs 77.8 consensus/previous
    * Current Conditions 87.2 vs 87.1
    * Expectations 74.3 vs 71.5
    * Main Index highest since 10/2007
    * current conditions highest since Jan 2008
    * expectations highest since July 2007

    (Reuters) - U.S. consumer sentiment rose to its highest level in more than four years in May as Americans stayed optimistic about the job market, while higher income households expected to see bigger wage increases, a survey released on Friday showed.

    The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan's final reading on the overall index on consumer sentiment rose to 79.3 from 76.4 in April, topping forecasts for 77.8 and an initial May reading of the same. It was the highest level since October 2007.

    "Unfortunately, consumer confidence is still extremely vulnerable to a reversal, as occurred in the past two years," survey director Richard Curtin said in a statement. "While their most optimistic expectation for job growth could go unfulfilled without much harm, if the recent slowdown in job growth persists in the months ahead, it could form the basis for a third retreat in confidence."
  • 5/25
    Bond Markets Open Flat, But Move Stronger on Spain Headline
    Early in the overnight session, we made note of the fact that the technical range trade appeared to be green-lighted as the first few hours of Asian trading gave us our 2nd big bounce off one of the trendlines in the "triangle." We updated that chart in The Day Ahead post.

    Things chopped around a bit overnight, with yields actually rising back up PRECISELY in line with the same trendline again around 4:30am ET, further reinforcing the technical guide-rails leading us into next week. But as that technical bounce was already helping yields moderate, a Reuters wire out of Spain indicated the wealthiest autonomous Spanish region of Catalonia is running out of debt servicing options and needs the Spanish government to step in according to the region's president.

    That inspired the biggest jolt of volume of the morning, and the quickest pace of improvement for domestic debt markets. The Euro fell to fresh multi-year lows and 10yr Treasuries fell a quick 2 bps from 1.77 to 1.75 and now trade slightly lower at 1.746. Fannie 3.5 MBS added a few ticks on the news as well, bringing the grand total to 6/32nds on the day at 104-13.

    Apart from the ongoing possibility of European headlines, the only remaining scheduled economic data is the 9:55am release of Consumer Sentiment. A major deviation from expectations could cause some movement, but we're not expecting a tremendous reaction otherwise.

    Bond markets close early today at 2pm ET.
  • 5/24
    MBS Steady Near Their "Least Bad" Levels After 7yr Auction
    We mention the 7yr auction in the title merely to make note that it happened and didn't really have an effect on the long end of the curve or MBS. The auction's bid-to-cover was well within the range of recent results and the high yields of 1.203 is actually decent despite the 1.201 when-issued yield. 7's had been outperforming other spots of the curve recently and into the auction, so the tepid results are actually rather neutral.

    Fannie 3.5 MBS are down 4 ticks on the day at 104-09 after having been as low as 104-06 earlier. 10yr yields saw much higher volume earlier in the morning while bouncing on ceilings at 1.77 and then closer to 1.78. They're currently at 1.767 and seemingly possess the will to hold steady or rally depending on whatever cues can be mustered from headlines or related market movement. With the latter in mind, we'd note that the stock lever has been fairly well connected for the past few hours, and that's not too surprising considering the week is essentially over as tomorrow is an almost data-free half day.

    Smooth sailing for now and maybe even a positive reprice from on of the "early crowd" lenders, but nothing justifying mass-scale improvements by any means. More importantly, risks of negative reprices are at their lowest levels of the day.
  • 5/24
    MBA Increases Originations Estimate for 2012 by Almost $200 Billion
    "The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) today announced it is increasing its mortgage origination forecast for 2012 by almost $200 billion, due entirely to an increase in refinances. MBA now expects that mortgage originations will reach $1.28 trillion in 2012, up from $1.26 trillion in 2011.

    Refinance originations are now expected to total $870 billion in 2012, an almost identical amount to 2011. MBA is slightly lowering its purchase originations forecast for 2012 from $415 billion to $409 billion."
  • 5/24
    Freddie Mac: Mortgage Rates Steady at Historic Lows
    30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaged 3.78 percent with an average 0.8 point for the week ending May 24, 2012, down from last week when it averaged 3.79 percent. Last year at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 4.60 percent.

    15-year FRM this week averaged 3.04 percent with an average 0.7 point, unchanged from last week. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 3.78 percent.

    5-year Treasury-indexed hybrid adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) averaged 2.83 percent this week, with an average 0.6 point, unchanged from last week. A year ago, the 5-year ARM averaged 3.41 percent.

    1-year Treasury-indexed ARM averaged 2.75 percent this week with an average 0.4 point, down from last week when it averaged 2.78 percent. At this time last year, the 1-year ARM averaged 3.11 percent.
  • 5/24
    Bond Markets Looking For Support After Opening Slightly Weaker
    It wasn't a great overnight session for bonds, though it wasn't catastrophic by any means. After yields followed yesterday's late stock rally higher on rumors that the EU is considering guaranteeing certain bank deposits, those weaker treading levels were maintained in relatively low volume into the Asian session.

    European hours saw 10's move back lower in yield, near the best levels of the New York session into Germany's weaker than expected IFO Business Climate data. But paradoxically, yields snapped back to the upside following the data and domestic traders were standing in line outside the doors of the New York open to pile on that bandwagon.

    As we said in the The Day Ahead, we're not so eager to attribute each and every little move today as perfectly connected to a causal source, but rather, we expect a range trade ahead of more important data in the coming weeks, with markets using ostensibly significant pieces of data or technical levels as cues to adjust levels INSIDE that range.

    That seems like what we're seeing in the overnight session, and it looks like technical levels outweighed the fundamental assessment of the weaker-than-expected data in the European session. Now we have weaker-than-expected data at home and markets have mostly faded that as well. 10yr yields are up another bp or so from data time and MBS are perhaps holding their ground slightly better with Fannie 3.5's down 5 ticks on the morning at 104-08.

    We'd caution though, that from these mid 1.76 levels in 10yr yields, the next technical stop is a quick jump to at least 1.78 if not 1.79 (bottom of intermediate term trend channel from early April), and that's a storm MBS might be less willing to weather so gracefully.
  • 5/24
    ECON: Durable Goods Rise Less Than Expected
    * Headline Durables +0.2 vs +0.5 consensus
    * Excluding Transportation -0.6 vs +0.9 consensus


    New orders for manufactured durable goods in April increased $0.3 billion or 0.2 percent to $215.5 billion, the U.S. Census Bureau announced today. This increase, up two of the last three months, followed a 3.7 percent March decrease. Excluding transportation, new orders decreased 0.6 percent. Excluding defense, new orders increased 1.2 percent.

    Transportation equipment, also up two of the last three months, had the largest increase, $1.3 billion or 2.1 percent to $62.2 billion. This was due to motor vehicles and parts, which increased $2.3 billion.

    Shipments of manufactured durable goods in April, up four of the last five months, increased $1.5 billion or 0.7 percent to $222.7 billion. This followed a 1.0 percent March increase.

    Transportation equipment, also up four of the last five months, had the largest increase, $1.9 billion or 3.1 percent to $63.8 billion. This followed a 2.3 percent March increase.

    Unfilled orders for manufactured durable goods in April, down following twenty-seven consecutive monthly increases, decreased $0.7 billion or 0.1 percent to $985.3 billion. This followed a slight March increase. Transportation equipment, down two consecutive months, had the largest decrease, $1.6 billion or 0.3 percent to $566.4 billion.

    Inventories of manufactured durable goods in April, up twenty-seven of the last twenty-eight months, increased $1.1 billion or 0.3 percent to $364.1 billion. This was at the highest level since the series was first published on a NAICS basis in 1992 and followed a 0.4 percent March increase.

    Machinery, up twenty-five of the last twenty-six months, had the largest increase, $1.1 billion or 1.7 percent to $65.2 billion. This was also at the highest level since the series was first published on a NAICS basis.
  • 5/24
    ECON: Jobless Claims Hit Expectations at 370k
    *Claims 370k vs 370k consensus
    * Continued Claims 3.26 mln vs 3.25 mln consensus
    * Previous week revised higher to 372k

    In the week ending May 19, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 370,000, a decrease of 2,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 372,000. The 4-week moving average was 370,000, a decrease of 5,500 from the previous week's revised average of 375,500.

    The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 2.6 percent for the week ending May 12, unchanged from the prior week's unrevised rate.

    The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending May 12 was 3,260,000, a decrease of 29,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 3,289,000. The 4-week moving average was 3,271,500, a decrease of 17,250 from the preceding week's revised average of 3,288,750.
  • 5/23
    Update on Late Selling Spike
    For anyone who was overly 'freaked-out' by the reprice alert, we wanted to update you to let you know that 104-08 didn't stick around too terribly long and that Fannie 3.5's have bounced back to 104-12. TSYs bounced back under 1.75 (currently 1.7414) and S&P futures bounced quit their stampede when S&P cash closed at 4pm.

    We wouldn't say we're necessarily immune from any further reprices, but there is perhaps less cause for outright panic than there would be had 3.5's continued trading under 104-10.
  • 5/23
    More Selling At Stock Market Close. Additional Reprice Risk
    MBS jumped off a bit of a cliff in the past few minutes and are now back into y'day's territory. Risks of negative reprices are incrementally higher than last check. Fannie 3.5's down to 104-08. 10yr yields up to 1.7466.
  • 5/23
    Late-Day Stock Lever Hurting Bond Markets. Reprices Reported
    Fannie 3.5's had been toeing the line at the 104-12 'line in the sand' and recently broke a tick lower to 104-11. One of the 'early crowd' lenders just repriced for the worse, and a few others in that same category might be having similar thoughts. MBS are basically at the lows of today's session and the highs of y'day's. Tough call for some of the more conservatively repricing lenders, but moderately elevated risk.
  • 5/23
    MBS Steady In Narrow Range Following 5yr Auction, Threats on Horizon
    There are a few things working against bond markets at the moment, not the least of which is the fact that they've rallied rather ferociously earlier this morning and are showing signs of tiring. But like the rally itself, those "signs of tiring" have more to do with what's going on in correlated markets as opposed to bond markets themselves. In other words, if the proper cues were given from stocks, the Euro, and European bonds, then US Treasuries and MBS might not look so exhausted.

    But as it stands, the aforementioned 'usual suspects' are doing more to put up road blocks for advancing bond markets as opposed to waving them through recent resistance levels. The Euro saw it's lowest bounce of the day around 12:30pm New York time. Surprise surprise, so did stocks. That rebound in "risk-on" (and believe us, we use the term 'rebound' very loosely) has translated to a bit of momentum for stocks and a bit of sideways indecision for bond markets.

    Basically, the cues are not presently there for bond markets to keep on rallying. The 5yr Auction was mostly a non-event, but wasn't a net-positive for longer-term yields. Perhaps the biggest consideration at the moment is that the Fed is buying (scheduled "twist" buying) 6-8yr Treasuries at the moment, which we're tempted to credit with keeping the mid-to-long end of the yield curve a bit better-sponsored than it otherwise might be.

    While we certainly can't predict or know what will happen at 2pm when that buying is done, we are quite interest in what markets do at that time, if anything. If stocks and the Euro continue to recover, and Treasury yields continue holding some sideways ground at current levels, we could be looking at the best levels of the day as a thing of the past. Then again, a Euro-zone official might say something interesting that counteracts any of this potentially pent-up negative energy.

    Either way, we'd keep an eye on an MBS pivot at 104-14 in Fannie 3.5's, and are especially interested in how it's doing in about 25 minutes from now. If prices fall decidedly lower, lenders would likely be considering negative reprices with a break of 104-12. In other words, a break below 104-14 means it's time to pay closer attention, and a break of 104-12 would warrant an increasing level of concern.
  • 5/23
    Bunds, Euro, Fed-Buying, Stock Lever, All Friends Of Bond Markets This AM
    Fannie 3.5's are up 8 ticks on the day now and 10yr yields are down around the 1.71% level as the Euro collapses, German Bunds hit new record low yields, domestic equities sell-off hard, and the Fed is in buying in the 30yr range. It's been a very good hour for bond markets, much more so for TSYs than MBS. But we'll take what we can get...
  • 5/23
    ECON: US House Prices Increase Slightly - FHFA
    U.S. house prices rose modestly in the first quarter of 2012 according to the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s (FHFA) seasonally adjusted purchase-only house price index (HPI). The FHFA HPI was up 0.6 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis since the fourth quarter of 2011. The HPI is calculated using home sales price information from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac mortgages. Seasonally adjusted house prices rose 0.5 percent from the first quarter of 2011 to the first quarter of 2012. FHFA’s seasonally adjusted monthly index for March was up 1.8 percent from February.

    “Consistent with other housing market indicators, the FHFA HPI showed stronger house prices in the first quarter, most notably in March,” said FHFA Principal Economist Andrew Leventis. “Increased affordability and a somewhat smaller inventory of homes for sale are positively impacting house prices.”

    FHFA’s expanded-data house price index, a metric introduced in August 2011 that adds transactions information from county recorder offices and the Federal Housing Administration to the HPI data sample, rose 0.2 percent over the latest quarter. Over the latest four quarters, the index is down 1.3 percent. For individual states, price changes reflected in the expandeddata measure and the traditional purchase-only HPI are compared on pages 24-26.

    While the national, purchase-only house price index rose 0.5 percent from the first quarter of 2011 to the first quarter of 2012, prices of other goods and services rose 3.2 percent over the same period. Accordingly, the inflation-adjusted price of homes fell approximately 2.6 percent over the latest year.
  • 5/23
    New Home Sales Rose More Than Expected in April; Prices Higher
    (Reuters) - New single-family home sales rose more than expected in April and prices pushed higher, further evidence the housing market was turning the corner.

    The Commerce Department said on Wednesday sales increased 3.3 percent to a seasonally adjusted 343,000-unit annual rate after a 332,000-unit pace in March.

    Economists polled by Reuters had forecast sales at a 335,000-unit rate in April. Compared to April last year, new home sales were up 9.9 percent.

    The data, coming on the heels of a report on Tuesday showing home resales hit a two-year high in April, suggested the housing market recovery was gaining traction.

    It also highlighted the economy's underlying strength, even though job growth has slowed in recent months. The weak housing market has been the Achilles heel of the economy's recovery from the 2007-09 recession, as falling home values restrain consumer spending.

    Signs of life in the housing market were also bolstered by a 0.7 percent rise in the median price of a new home last month to $235,700 from March. Compared to April last year, the median price was up 4.9 percent.
  • 5/23
    Why Germany Doesn't Want Eurobonds
    Markets bounced on Tuesday as the magic word "eurobonds" was heard — new French president Francois Hollande is keen and Christine Lagarde at the International Monetary Fund has endorsed the principle of more debt-sharing in the eurozone. Today share prices are down partly because investors have remembered that we've been round the houses on eurobonds several times already during this crisis and the debate always comes back to the same point: Germany is reluctant to underwrite the debts of its neighbours. That reluctance looks entrenched as ever, whatever Hollande and Lagarde might wish.

    In what circumstances might German budge? Gary Silverman of Swordfish Research has the answer — "only at one minute to midnight if the alternative was a complete collapse of the system."
  • 5/23
    Euro Zone Officials Agree To Prepare For Greek Exit Scenario
    (Reuters) - Euro zone officials have agreed that each euro zone country must prepare an individual contingency plan in the eventuality that Greece decides to leav the single currency area, two eurozone officials said on Wednesday.

    The agreement was reached during a teleconference of the Eurogroup Working Group (EWG), which started at 1300 GMT on Monday and lasted for about one hour.

    As well as confirmation from two officials, Reuters has seen a memo drawn up by one member state detailing some of the elements that euro zone countries should consider.

    The EWG consists of officials who prepare meetings of finance ministers and also form the board of the temporary bailout fund, the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF).

    "The EWG agreed that each euro zone country should prepare a contingency plan, individually, for the potential consequences of a Greek exit from the euro," said one euro zone official familiar with what was discussion on the call.

    "Nothing was prepared so far on the euro zone level for now, for fear of leaks," the official said.
  • 5/23
    Bond Markets Open Stronger
    Strong German auctions, a lack of further stimulus cues from foreign central banks, and a technical bounce, among other things helped bond markets get back on the good foot overnight. 10's opened around 1.75 and are down another bp already this morning to 1.74, well-connected with the stock lever. MBS opened up around 104-13 and are up 4 ticks vs y'day's close already at 104-13. Most recently, news that the Europgroup requested contingency plans from Euro-zone governments for a Greek exit (Reuters wire) has led stock futures lower and been another net-positive for bond markets.

    Although MBA mortgage apps are already out (purchases lower, refi's up again), the first major data of the morning hits at 10am with New Home Sales and the monthly Home Price Index. 5yr Treasury auction results hit at 1pm.

    Apart from attributing any of the overnight strength to "cause and effect" events, there's also that whole notion we've been harping on of Euro-drama tending to keep things relatively contained ahead of next month's biggies (the "real" EU Summit as well as Greek elections). To that end, 1.80 has held up as something of a short term ceiling in 10yr yields for now, and a good measure of the rally in the overnight session was simply a mini-snowball of shorts being covered as well as "empathetic" bond buying with an eye toward the pivot point resistance in equities futures (e.g. TSY yields legged lower after S&P futures failed a break through 1313 for the 2nd time of the session.

  • 5/22
    Decent Uptrend In Progress For MBS
    What had earlier been a sort of ping pong match between horizontal support and resistance levels (104-04 and 104-10) in Fannie 3.5 MBS has since given way to a moderate uptrend. While there are indeed higher lows from this morning, the 104-10 resistance level remains intact for now, but with Treasuries generally calming down and looking like they'll shy away from a break above 1.80 in 10yr yields, we could see some of the early crowd lenders throw out a positive reprice this afternoon (in fact, one just did as we were typing).

    Shouldn't be a widespread phenomenon at current levels, but a few additional lenders might get involved. More importantly, there's an absence of immediate negative reprice risk for those of you considering locking between now and cut-off.
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Mortgage Rates:
  • 30 Yr FRM 3.82%
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MBS Prices:
  • 30YR FNMA 4.5 107-03 (0-02)
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  • 30YR FNMA 5.0 108-10 (0-02)
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  • 30YR FNMA 5.5 109-01 (0-02)
Recent Housing Data:
  • Mortgage Apps 9.18%
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  • Refinance Index 12.97%
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  • Purchase Index -2.38%
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