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MBS Pricing
  Settlement Price Change
MBS
30YR FNMA 3.0   0-00 0-00
30YR FNMA 3.5   0-00 0-00
30YR FNMA 4.0   0-00 0-00
30YR FNMA 4.5   0-00 0-00
30YR FNMA 5.0   0-00 0-00
30YR GNMA 3.0   0-00 0-00
30YR GNMA 3.5   0-00 0-00
30YR GNMA 4.0   0-00 0-00
30YR GNMA 4.5   0-00 0-00
30YR GNMA 5.0   0-00 0-00
30YR FHLMC 3.0   0-00 0-00
30YR FHLMC 3.5   0-00 0-00
30YR FHLMC 4.0   0-00 0-00
30YR FHLMC 4.5   0-00 0-00
30YR FHLMC 5.0   0-00 0-00
  Price Change Yield Change
Treasury
2 YR 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
3 YR 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
5 YR 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
7 YR 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
10 YR 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
30 YR 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Change the chart by clicking any security in the list.

MBS Live Updates
  • 8/11
    Bond Markets Battle Back After Weaker Overnight Trading

    Treasury yields moved slightly higher overnight, extending Friday afternoon's weakness in fairly linear fashion.  The weakness ended when European markets came online.  German Bund yields opened several bps higher (they hadn't had a chance to take part in Friday's sell-off), but began improving from there. 

    Treasuries started the domestic session a few bps higher.  10yr yields briefly hit 2.44 but are currently back down to 2.418, close to breaking even.  MBS started 1 tick lower and are now 3 ticks higher.  Domestic bond markets have been cautiously advancing this morning as European bond markets have been holding ground or improving.

  • 8/8
    Negative Reprice Risk Remains; Possibly Increasing as Levels Leak Lower

    Fannie 3.5s just ticked briefly to new lows on the day.  Both MBS and Treasuries have been grinding along at their weakest levels as the weekend approaches.  Considering that reprice risk was already on the table with the initial afternoon sell-off, it's safe to assume it not only remains, but could be increasing slightly.

    We're currently down only 3 ticks on the day at 102-17, but 6 ticks lower from lender rate sheet print times.  10yr yields are unchanged at 2.424.

  • 8/8
    Bond Markets Drop on Russia/Ukraine Headlines; Negative Reprice Risk Potential

    Fannie 3.5s are quickly into negative territory on headlines that Russia is done with military exercises near the Ukrainian border.  It remains to be seen how the weakness plays out, but as of now, we're 4 ticks off from several lenders' rate sheet print times.  As such, negative reprices are possible, though not guaranteed to be widespread just yet.

  • 8/8
    Bond Markets Surge Overnight, Dialed Back, but Gaining Again; MBS Underperform Horribly

    All that discussion we've been having on the unwillingness of MBS to participate in a geopolitical flight-to-safety is coming to an ugly head this morning.  Fannie 3.5s are struggling to hold even the most modest gains while Treasuries rally to 14-month lows. 

    Here's a play-by-play of the overnight rally and early morning correction:

    • Obama announces air strikes in Iraq, 10yr yields fall to 2.38 in Asian trading
    • European trading opens and bonds rally more.  German bunds hit high 1.02% range.  US 10's fall to 2.349
    • Market rout fizzles as equities were unwilling to go much lower, reversal was gentle at first.
    • Then news hit just before 8am that Russia is ready to mediate talks between Kiev and East Ukraine.  The reversal picked up steam and 10yr yields were back up to 2.41
    • The reversal has since leveled off and yields are back to 2.39. 

    Through it all, MBS are underperforming horribly with Fannie 3.5s up 5 ticks compared to the 11 ticks of price gains in 10yr Treasuries.   Economic data is present, but largely unimportant today.  Bond markets are fighting battles based on jockeying of trading positions and technical levels.  Beyond that, they're in tune with European markets for the next few hours at least.

  • 8/7
    Bond Markets Rolled up by Afternoon Snowball Buying (That's a Good Thing)

    Heading into (and out of) the 3pm close for Treasury pit trading, 10yr yields broke through the day's previous lows and have seen follow-through buying since then (now down to 2.419).  Stocks and European futures (both stocks and bonds) are in on the move.

    MBS have finally broken above yesterday's highs, now up 9 ticks at 102-20.  Positive reprices are now more possible than they were with the first rally of the day.

  • 8/7
    Treasuries at Best Levels Since Late May after Ukraine Headlines; MBS Lagging

    Bond markets were already doing fairly well, but got another jolt of positivity after newswires hit that a Ukrainian fighter jet was shot down over eastern Ukraine.  The market reaction is due to such headlines standing the chance to be the start of a war/invasion--a hot topic so far this week.

    German Bunds fell to 1.06--another new all-time low--and Treasuries followed by breaking to levels not seen since late May.  10's are currently trading just under 2.44.

    MBS have been lagging Treasuries both in the medium and short term--really, ever since the geopolitical risks stepped to the forefront in July.  All that to say that MBS are NOT at their best levels since late May, and they'd need to gain another half point to make that claim.

    That said, they're still up 6 ticks, which is enough for positive reprice potential.

  • 8/7
    Bond Markets Holding Just Inside Positive Territory After Data and Draghi

    Yesterday's high yields in Treasuries held as a supportive ceiling during the first part of the overnight session.  As European markets began trading, bonds improved slightly with 10yr Treasuries falling back into the 2.44's and German Bunds hitting new all-time lows again (1.08%).  That happened fairly early on in the European session and things were sideways in stronger territory from there.

    As expected, the ECB (European Central Bank) Announcement contained no surprises.  Jobless Claims were stronger than expected at 289k vs 305k.  Treasuries and MBS weakened just slightly as a result, but supportive comments for ECH Pres. Draghi helped bonds hold their ground.  The important comments included a reiteration of the ECB's commitment to holding rates low and  to working on their version of QE (which will instead be an Asset-Backed-Security purchase program).

    MBS and 10yr yields are currently holding just inside positive territory.

  • 8/6
    Bond Markets Still Languishing Near Lows; Moderate Reprice Risk Remains

    Nothing new or different is happening in bond markets.  MBS and Treasuries simply continue trudging sideways to slightly weaker.  That weakness has, just now, taken MBS to their lows of the day.  This isn't too dramatic as it's only half a tick below the previous lows. 

    There was an outside possibility of negative reprices when we first reached those levels, so naturally it's still intact.  Fannie 3.5s are still up 1 tick on the day at 102-10 and 10yr yields are still down 1bp at 2.473.  To reiterate, reprices are by no means guaranteed, but neither could they be ruled out completely.

  • 8/6
    Negative Reprice Risk Increasing Slightly as MBS Push Lows

    While we're not technically breaking into new lows yet, MBS and Treasuries have increasingly spent time toeing the line of the day's weakest levels.  Stock continue making gains and EU bond markets continue holding ground. 

    Fannie 3.5s are still up 3 ticks on the day, but down 4 ticks (.125) from the time some lenders marked MBS prices for rate sheets.  The next tick or two of weakness would increase the chances of a lender or two repricing.  It's an outside possibility already. 

  • 8/6
    Bond Markets Pull Back as Stocks Rally Sharply at the Open

    In addition to the European bond market strength overnight, S&P futures and other equities markets followed the move lower in bond yields overnight.  To a much greater degree than Treasuries, equities markets get a big injection of liquidity when cash trading opens at 9:30am.  Today's open has seen a sharp move higher with S&Ps already 8 points up from 9:30am levels.

    Treasuries and MBS have lost ground as a result.  Fannie 3.5s are down 3 ticks from 9:30 and 10yr yields are up about a bp.    This isn't quite enough weakness to warrant negative reprice risk yet.  Even then, it looks like we have a chance to bounce here.  Too soon to tell, but so far, so good.  We'll let you know if that changes.

  • 8/6
    European Bonds Surge, Pulling US Yields Lower Overnight; Holding Ground Now

    Ironically, part of the discussion in this morning's 'day ahead' concerned the respective floors underneath yields in both German and US debt.  Ironic because during the overnight session, German yields once again broke through the red line on this chart:

    2014-8-5 bunds and tsys

    And no sooner did that happen than 10yr yields moved below 2.47 again.  There's still some way to go before 10yr yields break the lows of the year, but 2.47 is a significant pivot point.  Being below there is akin to a runner taking a lead-off before stealing a base. 

    As for the European bond market strength, chalk that up to exceptionally weak economic data out of Germany (Industrial Orders fell at fastest pace since Sept 2011) and Italy's 3rd slide into recession since 2008.  Germany and Italy are the largest and 3rd largest economies in the EU respectively.  Weak UK data (industrial output) was icing on the cake for the European bond rally.

    10yr German Bunds fell to new all-time lows overnight, currently at 1.10.  Treasuries followed, and were down to 2.44 by 6:30am.  MBS opened a quarter point higher (+0-08 at 102-16). While European debt has continued to improve modestly, Treasuries and MBS have dialed it back a bit. 

    This reiterates the face that there is SIGNIFICANT resistance for Treasuries in this 2.44-2.47 neighborhood, but they will only let themselves get so far away from German yields before being forced to break lower.  With Europe being such a big driver this morning, keep an eye out for volatility heading into the EU bond market close at 1pm.

  • 8/5
    Sideways to Slightly Weaker as Headline Impact Fades

    This isn't a negative reprice situation for the average lender, but certainly a heads up that the trend in bond markets has been moderately weaker since just after 2pm.  MBS have been under relatively more pressure than Treasuries with Fannie 3.5s back down to -0-03 on the day at 102-08.  They'd been as high as 102-13 earlier.

    While the afternoon weakness doesn't necessarily connote negative reprice risk, it all but guarantees an absence of positive reprice potential (for those of you who might have been waiting).

  • 8/5
    Bond Markets Break Into Positive Territory on Russia Invasion Headlines

    Polish Foreign Minister Sikorski said that Russia is "poised to pressure or invade Ukraine."  No one seems to be sure what that means or how it's any different than having troops on the border for months, but apparently markets care.  Stocks and bond yields shot lower immediately following the headlines and MBS are now 2 ticks into positive territory.  10yr yields are almost down to yesterday's lows--currently at 2.478. 

  • 8/5
    Bond Markets Bounce Back

    After falling somewhat sharply after this morning's ISM Non-Manufacturing data, bond markets are bouncing back.  10yr yields are now back below pre-ISM levels and MBS are just now moving through theirs.  Fannie 3.5s are now down only 3 ticks at 102-09. 

    This alleviates any negative reprice risk from earlier lows. 

  • 8/5
    Post-Data Weakness Continues; Now Entering Reprice Risk Territory

    Bond market weakness following the 10am econ data has now taken MBS to levels that could result in negative reprices for some lenders.  Fannie 3.5s are down 5 ticks on the day with at least 4 of them arriving since many lenders' rate sheet print times.  Reprices are possible already, though won't likely affect a majority of lenders unless we lose a few more ticks.

    10yr yields are up 2.7bps now at 2.518.

  • 8/5
    Bond Markets hit Weakest Levels After Stronger Data

    Both of the 10am economic reports came in stronger than expected, and bond markets have weakened as a result.  Fannie 3.5s are at the lows of the day, down 4 ticks at 102-06.  10yr Treasury yields are up 1.8bps at 2.509.

    Prices haven't moved low enough to suggest negative reprice risk yet, but that could be the case if we lose a few more ticks. Here's a run-down of the data

    ISM Non-Manufacturing

    • ISM PMI 58.7 vs 56.3, highest since December 2005
    • Business Activity 62.4 vs 58.1, highest since Feb 2011
    • New Orders 64.9 vs 61.2 previously, highest since August 2005

    Factory Orders

    • June Orders +1.1 vs +0.6 forecast
    • June Durable Orders revised to +1.7 from +0.7

    Given the strength of those reports, bonds are actually holding their ground remarkably well.  As we discussed in this morning's 'day ahead,' part of the reason may be that these reports are falling AFTER the NFP/GDP readings.  In addition, it could just be taking time for the full effects to be felt in slower, summertime trading.

  • 8/5
    Bond Markets Slightly Weaker Overnight and Into US Session

    The overnight session began uneventfully in Asia with Treasuries and S&P futures holding excruciatingly flat.  The tone brought on by European hours was decidedly different.  Right from the start of European bond market trading, Treasuries have been pressured steadily higher in yield by a strong move higher in core European bond markets.

    10yr yields crossed into the domestic session just slightly higher and have weakened a bit more since then.  Similarly, MBS are 3 ticks lower at the moment after starting the day 1 tick lower.  Fannie 3.5s are currently at 102-08 and 10yr yields are up 1bp at 2.502.

    The day's only significant scheduled economic data arrives at 10am in the form of ISM Non-Manufacturing. 

  • 8/4
    On the Edge of Negative Reprice Risk

    The last update said we'd need to see another 2 ticks of weakness before negative reprices became possible and we just lost the second tick.  There are still quite a few lenders that aren't yet looking at an eighth of a point of losses from the time they printed morning rate sheets, but some are.

    That puts us right on the edge of negative reprice risk.  If prices bounce, we may see no reprices.  If they hold steady, we might only see one or two.  It would take a few more ticks before the risk applied to more than a few of the jumpiest lenders.

    Fannie 3.5s are down 7 ticks from the highs, but 'unchanged' on the day at 102-10.  10yr yields are still down 1.25bps on the day, but up to 2.493 from 2.47 lows.

  • 8/4
    MBS-Specific Weakness Following Scheduled Fed Buying

    The day's scheduled Fed buying in MBS wrapped up at 11:45am.  Not even one minute later, MBS reversed course and began losing ground.  Not only that, but they increasingly underperformed Treasuries in the process.  Fannie 3.5s are down a fairly quick 6 ticks, introducing some small measure of negative reprice risk.

    That risk is limited to "on the horizon" for the most part as the 6/32nds of weakness is based on the day's highs.  No lenders released rates at the highs.  Prices are only 1-3 ticks off from rate sheet print times.  If the weakness continues, however, negative reprice risk would increase with another 2 ticks of losses (102-09 and below).

  • 8/4
    Bond Markets Moderately Stronger to Start Domestic Session

    Trading was fairly quiet in the overnight session.  10yr yields held a narrow range between 2.51 and 2.49.  The weakest level were seen right at the start of the Asian session.  Bonds improved somewhat after weak economic data in China.

    The biggest headline of the night was the announcement of a bailout for Portugal's troubled Banco Espirito Santo.  The bank's stock and Portuguese markets accounted for most of the market reaction, with heavily diminishing returns for the rest of the European bond market and overnight Treasury trading.

    With the onset of domestic trading, the normal increase in volume and participation has been positive for bond markets.  Both MBS and Treasuries crossed the 8AM threshold unchanged vs Friday's latest levels, and both have improved since then.

    Fannie 3.5 MBS are up 2 ticks at 102-12 and 10yr yields are down 2.15bps at 2.484.  There is no significant data on the calendar today.  The only game in town from a market-watching standpoint is to keep an eye on technical levels in Treasuries.  Things don't get serious for 10's unless yields approach 2.44 or 2.56.  It would be a surprise to see either of those broken today.

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