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MBS Pricing
  Settlement Price Change
MBS
30YR FNMA 3.0   0-00 0-00
30YR FNMA 3.5   0-00 0-00
30YR FNMA 4.0   0-00 0-00
30YR FNMA 4.5   0-00 0-00
30YR FNMA 5.0   0-00 0-00
30YR GNMA 3.0   0-00 0-00
30YR GNMA 3.5   0-00 0-00
30YR GNMA 4.0   0-00 0-00
30YR GNMA 4.5   0-00 0-00
30YR GNMA 5.0   0-00 0-00
30YR FHLMC 3.0   0-00 0-00
30YR FHLMC 3.5   0-00 0-00
30YR FHLMC 4.0   0-00 0-00
30YR FHLMC 4.5   0-00 0-00
30YR FHLMC 5.0   0-00 0-00
  Price Change Yield Change
Treasury
2 YR 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
3 YR 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
5 YR 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
7 YR 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
10 YR 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
30 YR 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
Change the chart by clicking any security in the list.

MBS Live Updates
  • 7/29
    Bond Markets Under Pressure; Negative Reprice Risk Approaching

    If European markets were a positive factor for US bond markets today, and if European markets are closing, it's not too hard to imagine that we might see some incremental pressure on US bond markets.  That's a factor right now and 10yr yields just moved to their highest levels of the domestic session at 2.48.

    MBS aren't yet back to their session lows, but they're close.  Fannie 3.5s are down 5/32nds from the highs, and several lenders priced near those highs.  That puts us right on the edge of negative reprice risk.  A few more ticks of weakness would make a few reprices more likely, though a bounce could preclude that.  If prices flat-lined here, there would still be a very small amount of risk for a very small group of the most reactive lenders.

    Basically, at 102-12 or below (in Fannie 3.5s), negative reprices are a possibility.  102-11 would likely bring in the vanguard of negative reprices with a majority holding off until/unless prices moved below 101-10.

  • 7/29
    Bond Markets Holding in Better Territory After 5yr Auction

    In the hour and a half since the strong 5yr Treasury auction, bond markets have done a good job of bouncing back and holding gains.  The initial improvement was fairly quick, and leveled off within the first 30 minutes--forming a narrow little consolidative range.

    Only in the past few minutes have MBS and Treasuries moved out of that range and into stronger territory.  We had a few non-sequitur negative reprices even after the bounce back, but that seems less likely now.  If anything, positive reprices are more likely.

    Fannie 3.5s are currently up 5 ticks at 102-16 and 10yr yields are down 2.9bps at 2.462.

  • 7/29
    Bond Markets Surge as Domestic Session Begins, Here's Why...

    If there's a kind of storm that's not quite perfect, but still pretty darn good, this morning's confluence of events is getting there.  Here are the ingredients

    1. European debt rally (a big one).  German Bunds moved into new all-time lows overnight and went on another push lower as the US session began.  This coincided with #2.

    2. Month-End buying.  With certain investors needing to buy a certain amount of Treasuries/MBS before the end of the month and with prices moving quickly higher this morning, we're seeing what can only be some month-end buying.  For more on that, read this: 'Month-End Buying,' And Its Effect on Bond Markets.
     
    3. Short-Covering.  Short covering happens when traders who were betting on rates moving higher, are forced to buy bonds as yields move lower in order to prevent further losses.  So with #1 and #2 making for an extra push toward lower yields, short-covering merely acts as an accelerant.

    If one of these three things is doing the most to motivate the US bond market rally, it's the European debt rally.  By that same rationale, when it changes course, that's when our rally this morning stands the greatest chance of bouncing or leveling off.  Ultimately, we're not breaking into any new ground today with respect to the recently low/narrow rate range.

  • 7/29
    Consumer Confidence MUCH Stronger Than Expected, adding to Bond Market Pull-Back

    The day's only significant econ data--Consumer Confidence--was much stronger than expected.  It took bond markets a few minutes to commit to a reaction, but when the did, it was understandably weaker.  The major caveat to the weakness is that US bond markets are also taking cues from European trading and domestic equities in addition to the Confidence numbers.  In general, it seems like EU trading is keeping a lid on US bond market weakness.

    Fannie 3.5s are down to 102-14 from 102-18 highs earlier this morning and 10yr yields moved up from 2.46 to 2.476 after the data.  As of now, we're still seeing both MBS and Treasuries poke and prod at slightly weaker levels.  In other words, there's no discernible "bounce" yet (but we may be working on one now, hopefully).  If we continue losing ground at this pace, negative reprices could become possible shortly.

    Here's the run-down on the Confidence data:

    • July Consumer Confidence 90.9 vs 85.3 forecast
    • June revised to 86.4 from 85.2
    • Present Situation 88.3 vs 86.3 last month
    • Expectations Index 92.7 vs 86.4 previously
    • "jobs-hard-to-get" 30.7 vs 30.7 previously
    • overall confidence headline is highest since Oct 2007

  • 7/28
    Bond Markets Under Pressure into PM; Negative Reprice Risk Rising Modestly

    Consider this an early heads-up that may prove to be too early depending on the next move.  If bond markets manage to bounce into better territory, we could avoid any negative reprices.  If we lose another tick, however, a few of the more reactive lenders could be considering it.

    There's no salient event behind the weakness, though stocks have been gaining ground and bond markets losing ground since the end of the European session.  Fannie 3.5s are down 4 ticks on the day and 3-5 from lenders' rate sheet print times.  10yr yileds are at the highs of the day at 2.4944.

  • 7/28
    Bond Markets Slightly Weaker Overnight; Holding Ground in Domestic Session

    It's been a slow start to the week with very little movement so far in the domestic session.  Before that, Treasury yields moved slightly higher in the overnight session.

    Reasons for the weakness include a general decrease in the level of geopolitical anxiety as well as a simple technical bounce foreshadowed by 10yr yields inability to get below 2.466 on Friday afternoon.  All bond markets have really done is pull back just slightly from there.

    That made for a few ticks of weakness for MBS at the open.  Since then, Fannie 3.5s have moved up from 102-09 to 102-11.  There haven't been any major market-moving headlines or instances of scheduled data.

  • 7/25
    Slumping Stocks, Weak EU Close Boost Bonds; Positive Reprice Potential

    MBS Are at their best levels of the day, just over yesterday's highs.  Fannie 3.5s are a quarter of a point higher at 102-12.  While a quarter of a point is a solid improvement day-over-day, it's only an eighth of a point higher than most lenders' rate sheet print times, meaning we're just now getting to the leading edge of positive reprice potential. 

    10yr yields have moved 4.4bps lower to 2.466 and the S&P is down over 10 points.  The improvement in Treasuries is fairly uninteresting considering yesterday's weakness was fairly pronounced.  In short, it simply puts us right back in the holding-zone that had been intact since last Thursday. 

    A break below 2.44 would be a different story (in that it would be more interesting).  As it stands, we're still waiting for next week's big-ticket events to cast a vote on whether we break lower (i.e. move through to 2.3's) or bounce back up, effectively remaining in 2014's established range.  That said, the waiting is much more comfortable today than it was yesterday.

  • 7/25
    Bond Markets back into Positive Territory After Durable Goods Paradox

    Believe it or not, this isn't the first appearance of the exact same "paradox" headline.  That's because The Durable Goods report has some significant components beyond the headline and because of its implication on GDP.  This time around, the culprit is the same as it was in March (last time that headline appeared): Nondefense Capital Goods Orders Excluding Aircraft. 

    While the current report came in at +1.4 vs a forecast of +0.5 (a 0.9 beat), the last report was revised from +0.7 to -1.2 (a 1.9 decrease).  Economists/Analysts/Trader teams will have already baked in their forecasts to next week's GDP expectations, but can't bake in revisions until their known. 

    As such, today's Durables data leaves a net loss of 1.0 in that 'Nodefense Ex-Air' segment, which is a fairly substantial negative mark against next week's Q2 GDP.  And that's why bond markets improved despite the stronger headline ("headline" refers to overall Durable Goods at +0.7 vs +0.5 forecast).

    Before that, both Treasuries and MBS were in moderately weaker territory.  Fannie 3.5s are now up 3 ticks at 102-07 and 10yr yields are down 1.6bps at 2.493.

  • 7/24
    Just a Reminder: Still Some Reprice Risk

    While trading levels haven't changed much since the last reprice alert, but in general the tone remains downbeat in bond markets.  Treasuries are doing a fair job of holding sideways near their high yields of the day, but MBS are arguably in a very slight downtrend.

    Point being, even though current prices aren't much lower, negative reprices are still possible due to the shape of the trend (weak trend heading toward close, some lenders may feel it's safer to reprice).  This wouldn't be a widespread phenomenon at current levels, but we could see a few unless Fannie 3.5s bounce back to 102-04 or higher in fairly short order.

  • 7/24
    Reprice Risk Still Here!

    More of a heads up, and no incremental weakness beyond the first alert of the day, but prices are now back to the levels that first prompted that alert. 

    This is only worth mentioning again due to the fact that New Home Sales data looked as if it would blunt those losses enough to alleviate reprice risk.  In fact, it did, but only for a bit.  Now we're back where we were: modest reprice risk for a few of the fastest-acting lenders.  It would still take more weakness for broader-based reprice risk.

  • 7/24
    Horrid New Home Sales Data Prompts Only a Modest Bounce

    On several occasions in the past, we've seen pronounced reactions to big beats/misses in New Home Sales data.  Today's miss is every bit as big as past 'big misses' (the ones that resulted in big moves), yet we're not seeing much of a response.  Fannie 3.5s have only recovered 2 ticks and 10yr yields are only down to 2.5052 from 2.518. 

    Does this suggest a stronger inherent bias back toward higher yields?  Or do the big miss and big revision to last month's New Home Sales data suggest that it's too volatile at the moment to pay much mind?  Maybe some of both?  Whatever the case, the modest bounce is enough to alleviate the reprice risk that had been building ahead of the data.  Here's a run-down of the report:

    • June New Home sales 406k vs 479k forecast (annual rate)
    • In percentage terms -8.1 percent is biggest drop since July 2013.
    • May revised to 442k from 504k
    • Northeast down 20 percent, Midwest -8.2, South -9.5, West -1.9
    • Supply at 5.8 months, highest since October 2011
  • 7/24
    Another Day With Early Negative Reprice Risk

    For the third straight day, we have a 4+ tick gap between some lenders' rate sheet print times and current prices in the AM hours.  This is the bleeding edge of negative reprice risk and only occasionally results in a lender or two pulling the trigger, but it's still technically a risk.  Risks will likely increase if New Home Sales are stronger than expected at 10am.

    Fannie 3.5s are currently down 9 ticks on the day (4 of them since 9:20am) at 102-05.

  • 7/24
    Bond Markets Notably Weaker Overnight, and Again After Claims Data

    Jobless Claims were significantly stronger than expected.

    • Claims 284k vs 308k forecast, 303k previously
    • Continued Claims 2.5mln vs 2.508mln previously, lowest since June 2007

    Bond markets were already quite a bit weaker overnight, mostly following German Bunds' bounce off recent lows (another one).  10yr yields bounced in a similar fashion between yesterday and today.

    For their part, MBS aren't under quite as much pressure as Treasuries with Fannie 3.5s down only 7 ticks in price compared to 10yr Treasuries' 11 ticks.  The next significant data is New Home Sales at 10am.

  • 7/23
    Selling Accelerates; Negative Reprices a Near Certainty

    While there are always a few lenders that don't reprice with the rest, most of the herd is likely to reprice if current losses don't reverse immediately.  Fannie 3.5s are now down 6 ticks on the day, and at least 6 ticks from the most conservatively-priced rate sheets.  Some lenders are looking at 9 ticks since rate sheets.  If you haven't seen a reprice yet, you probably will.

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More From MND

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MBS Prices:
  • 30YR FNMA 4.5 107-20 (-0-10)
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  • 30YR FNMA 5.0 110-05 (-0-05)
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  • 30YR FNMA 5.5 110-25 (-0-02)
Recent Housing Data:
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  • FHFA Home Price Index 0.67%