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FNMA 3.5
94-18 : +0-09
FNMA 4.0
98-28 : +0-08
FNMA 4.5
102-09 : +0-07
FNMA 5.0
105-03 : +0-06
GNMA 3.5
95-25 : +0-09
GNMA 4.0
100-18 : +0-09
GNMA 4.5
103-28 : +0-07
GNMA 5.0
106-23 : +0-06
94-13 : +0-10
98-23 : +0-07
102-05 : +0-06
104-31 : +0-06
Pricing as of 3:58 PM EST
Afternoon Market Updates
A recap of MBS Market Updates provided by MND Analysts and streamed live to the MBSonMND Dashboard .
2:59PM  :  Volume and Volatility Extremely Low
This is just about as quiet as it gets... 10 yr TSYs have actually been in LESS than a 1 basis point range since 11am (3.361 to 3.37). Volume is non-existent. MBS are similarly narrow in range and lacking in volume beginning at the same time with FNCL 4.5's going no higher than 102-11, no lower than 102-09, and currently at 102-10. Without putting the cart too far ahead of the horse, we'd lean toward the belief that today was pretty much over as soon as it began, turning our attention instead to the unofficial inception of the week tomorrow.
1:53PM  :  Stock Lever Remains Disconnected. MBS Still Near Highs
The S&P made a very minor new high since we last checked, but Treasuries continue to march to the beat of their own drummer, staying low in yield on the day at 3.365. FNCL 4.5's are 7 ticks up on the day at 102-09, fairly close to their 102-10 high. Reprices for the better continue to be a possibility, and low volume range trade continues to be a probability.
1:05PM  :  ALERT: TSY Resistance Limits MBS Gains, But Positive Reprices Possible!
Current MBS gains are sufficient to see lenders repricing for the better. But this is due to a slow and rather meaningless slog upward as opposed to a triumphant, data-driven, high volume rally. The stock lever is no longer connected as Treasuries show their willingness to trade recent ranges ahead of FOMC. Recent yield lows in 10yr notes center on 3.36 and that's where we've seen a majority of resistance today, especially when considering volume, as the only noticeable upswing occurred at those levels. 10's are currently at 3.63 and seem like they want us to believe they're not especially interested in going lower. FNCL 4.5's, at 102-10 are as high as they've been since 3/21 and share a similar stance, in that the obvious assumption is to encounter resistance here. If 10's are able to break lower, MBS stand a good chance to break higher, but until/unless that happens, we're simply in a low-volume range-trade in a market that knows it has more important things to worry about than today's levels as the week progresses. In other words, don't read anything into today's market movements as far as making some sort of statement about the directional inclinations of bond markets.
12:44PM  :  New MBS Commentary Post
12:18PM  :  Multifamily and Commercial Lending Up 44% in 2010
(Mortgage Bankers Association) - Commercial and multifamily mortgage origination volumes increased 44 percent in 2010 over the previous year, with mortgage bankers reporting $118.8 billion of closed commercial and multifamily loans, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association's 2010 Commercial Real Estate/Multifamily Finance: Annual Origination Volume Summation. "Coming off of the 2009 lows, commercial and multifamily originations increased by a strong 44 percent in 2010," said Jamie Woodwell, MBA's Vice President of Commercial Real Estate Research. "Low interest rates coupled with improving economic fundamentals have the potential to draw out even more borrowers in 2011." Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and FHA, collectively, were the largest investor group in 2010, responsible for $42.8 billion of the total, followed closely by life insurance companies and pension funds at $30.6 billion. In terms of property types, multifamily properties saw the highest volume, $48.9 billion, followed by office properties with $22.6 billion of originations. First liens accounted for 92 percent of the total dollar volume closed. Lending for office properties had the largest percentage increase in originations by property type, followed closely by hotel/motel properties and retail. Year-over-year changes are based on the changes in volume among "repeat reporters" that participated in both the 2009 and 2010 surveys.
11:06AM  :  MBS at Best Levels, TSYs Improve as Stocks Weaken
The stock lever has been reasonably connected so far this morning, and in the same time the S&P has meandered from 1337 to 1132, 10yr TSY yields fell from just over 3.39 to 3.37. Sound familiar? Yep... That was the same move they made this morning from weakest to strongest levels. But this time may be a bit more bullish as they've currently broken into 3.36's without a cue from stocks. FNCL 4.5's are feeling the benefits of the bond-market-bullishness as well, currently up 7 ticks on the day at 102-09. It may be a bit early yet for positive reprices, but if gains extend in time or magnitude, that's the direction we're heading for now.
Featured Market Discussion
A recap of the featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBSonMND Dashboard .
Daniel Kramer  :  "5/3 reprice for better coming out"
Andrew Horowitz  :  "I really follow MBS' more ABM"
Andrew Horowitz  :  "i am looking for tsy to go to 3.31 then i will look at shorts"
Aaron Buyside Meyer  :  "so you don't like TBT then I just found this etf today I didn't know there were etfs that shorted TRYS"
Andrew Horowitz  :  "nope i long"
Aaron Buyside Meyer  :  "andrew are you shorting Trys at all?"
Andrew Horowitz  :  "3.40 and then 3.42 on the upside"
Andrew Horowitz  :  "then 3.31 on the downside"
Andrew Horowitz  :  "3.36"
Andrew Russell  :  "what are pivotals for 10 yr"
Ira Selwin  :  "FAMC price change"
Matt Hodges  :  "traditional after any area is declared "disaster" to have reinspection from appraisers"
Chris Maas  :  "anyone see any investors asking for additional appraisal information from NC properties due to all the storms?"
Dan Clifton  :  "+.125 from pfg"
Brett Boyke  :  "From Dallas Fed - "From a cost standpoint, commodity prices continue to increase, negatively impacting material and delivery costs. As a result, we are in the process of taking a price increase to the market, which should occur in May" and "Our sales are up, but our cost of goods sold and the cost of diesel are keeping our margins at record lows" and, FTW: "Rapidly increasing costs and fuel costs have shocked the consumer away from any nonmandatory spending." "
Adam Quinones  :  "they own around $300bn in 5.0 coupons."
Adam Quinones  :  "that is your best shot at another refi boom bc those borrowers qualify. would be lots of "tight deals" though."
Adam Quinones  :  "the Fed's portfolio is about 44% FNCL 4.5s or $550bn"
Adam Quinones  :  "id have to do a bunch of number crunching to get an accurate guesstimate but it wouldnt be bigger than QEII."
Adam Quinones  :  "09/10 vintage"
Adam Quinones  :  "about $140bn FG 4.0s"