MBSonMND: MBS MID-DAY
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FNMA 3.5
96-30 : +0-10
FNMA 4.0
100-30 : +0-07
FNMA 4.5
103-31 : +0-04
FNMA 5.0
106-14 : +0-01
GNMA 3.5
98-07 : +0-09
GNMA 4.0
102-20 : +0-06
GNMA 4.5
105-29 : +0-05
GNMA 5.0
108-09 : +0-02
FHLMC 3.5
96-24 : +0-10
FHLMC 4.0
100-27 : +0-07
FHLMC 4.5
103-28 : +0-05
FHLMC 5.0
106-09 : +0-01
Pricing as of 11:02 AM EST
Morning Market Updates
A recap of MBS Market Updates provided by MND Analysts and streamed live to the MBSonMND Dashboard .
10:47AM  :  Greek Finance Minister Says Must Maintain Stability
(Reuters) - Greek Finance Minister George Papaconstantinou said on Thursday his ruling Socialist party should remain stable ahead of a key parliamentary caucus meeting that will debate the government's policies. "At this very difficult moment, there is only one goal for all of us: stability, to keep the country and its economy on its feet, to continue without interruption the financing of the country by its lenders," Papaconstantinou told reporters. The meeting was called after two ruling party MPs resigned from their seats to protest the government's policies. Prime Minister George Papandreou plans to reshuffle his cabinet later on Thursday. (Reporting by Harry Papachristou)
10:25AM  :  Stocks Rise, Bonds Weaken Despite Weak Philly Fed
After the Philadelphia Fed Survey showed manufacturing activity to be contracting at its fasted pace since July 2009, bond markets paradoxically weakened while stock indexes advanced. This may turn out to be a short term "fade," however, as 10yr notes are attempting to bounce on support dividing yesterday and today's yields in the mid 2.96's. 10yr yields are already back down to 2.953. Fannie Mae 4.0 coupon MBS are also bouncing back after an initial move weaker. Prices moved to 100-20 following the report, but have already recovered sharply to 100-27, 4/32nds up on the day and just better than the middle of their range today. With prices still well within the overall range though, implications for reprices in either direction are limited. If underlying benchmarks hold their supportive pivot point without yields rising into yesterday's lows, it could create an environment that's salubrious enough for MBS to get to reprice levels later today.
10:02AM  :  ECON: Philly Fed Factory Activity Lowest in 2 Years
(Reuters) - Factory activity in the U.S. Mid-Atlantic region unexpectedly shrank in June to its lowest level in nearly 2 years in another sign of weakness in the manufacturing sector, a survey showed on Thursday. The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank said its business activity index fell to minus 7.7 in June from positive 3.9 the month before. It fell far short of economists' expectations for a rise to 6.8, according to a Reuters poll. It was the lowest level since July 2009. Any reading below zero indicates contraction in the region's manufacturing. The survey covers factories in eastern Pennsylvania, southern New Jersey and Delaware. The new orders index also fell, coming in at minus 7.6 from 5.4 in May, while inventories dropped to minus 8.5 from minus 5.4. New orders were at their lowest since June 2009.
8:58AM  :  AM Data Impact Lessened by Euro-Zone. Still Weaker
Overnight trading, fueled by ongoing Euro-Zone concerns, proved to be hard to overcome as bond markets were initially reluctant to move weaker after better-than-expected economic data. Benchmark Treasuries came into the domestic session at the lowest yields of the year after a night of insanely high volume during the Asian and European sessions. Slower than might otherwise be expected, 10yr yields have crept back into the outer limits of their previous range moving from 2.89 early this AM to 2.94 currently. Fannie Mae 4.0 Coupon MBS are up 1/32nds at 100-23 after being up as high as 10/32nds earlier this morning. Prospects for loan pricing are uncertain given the volatility so far this AM, but for perspective, even after this morning's losses, MBS are now in the middle of the range seen yesterday afternoon AFTER the strong mid-day rally.
8:33AM  :  ECON: Jobless Claims Ease to 414,000, Still Elevated
(Reuters) - New applications for U.S. jobless benefits dipped in the latest week but remained at levels that were too high to put a dent in the unemployment rate. The Labor Department said on Thursday new jobless claims fell to 414,000 in the week ended June 11 from an upwardly revised 430,000 in the prior week. Economists polled by Reuters had been looking for a smaller decline to 420,000. Claims have been above 400,000 for two months now, reflecting a rough patch in the recovery that has led to renewed weakness in an already anemic job market. (Reporting by Pedro Nicolaci da Costa, Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)
8:31AM  :  ECON: Housing Starts Up, Permits at 5-mth High
(Reuters) - U.S. housing starts rose more than expected and permits for future construction touched a five month high in May, a government report showed on Thursday, but any recovery will be hampered by a glut of pre-owned homes. The Commerce Department said housing starts rose 3.5 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 560,000 units, retracing almost half of April's steep decline. April's starts were revised up to a 541,000 unit pace, which was previously reported as a 523,000 unit rate. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast housing starts rising to a 540,000-unit rate. Compared to May last year, residential construction was down 3.4 percent. An oversupply of previously owned houses, especially foreclosed properties which sell well below their value, is dampening new home construction. A survey on Wednesday showed sentiment among home builders at its lowest in nine months in June. Last month, there was an increase in groundbreaking for both multi and single family homes. Starts in the West were the highest since August. Multi-family home starts rose 2.9 percent. The increase in the construction of multi-family units reflects a growing demand for rentals as relentless declines in house prices encourage Americans to delay home purchases and even give up properties whose mortgages are far higher than their values. Single-family home construction, which accounts for a large portion of the market, rose 3.7 percent. New building permits unexpectedly rebounded 8.7 percent to a 612,000-unit pace last month, the highest level since December. Economists had expected overall building permits in May to fall to a 558,000-unit pace. Permits were boosted by a 23.2 percent surge in the multi-family segment. Permits to build single-family homes rose 2.5 percent. New home completions climbed 0.4 percent to 544,000 units in May. (Reporting by Lucia Mutikani, Editing by Andrea Ricci)
8:30AM  :  ECON: Current Account Gap Widens in First Quarter
(Reuters) - The U.S. current account deficit increased to $119.3 billion in the first quarter on strong imports , the Commerce Department said on Thursday. The deficit -- which measures the flow of goods, services and investments in and out of the United States -- represented 3.2 percent of U.S. gross domestic product, up from 3.0 percent in the fourth quarter. The current account gap amounted to $112.2 billion in the fourth quarter. Economists had been looking for the deficit to widen to $126.0 billion in the first quarter. The government revised current account data through the fourth quarter of 2010 to reflect changes in definitions and classifications. The deficit on goods and services rose to $140.8 billion in the first quarter from $118.7 billion in the final three months of 2010. Net financial inflows stood at $181.9 billion, up from $29.3 billion in the prior quarter. (Reporting by Lucia Mutikani, Editing by Andrea Ricci)
8:19AM  :  New MBS Commentary Post

Featured Market Discussion
A recap of the featured comments from the Live Discussion on the MBSonMND Dashboard .
Adam Quinones  :  "stocks clinging!"
Andrew Horowitz  :  "back below 1270 inthe S & P"
Jack Shotbolt  :  "We've been doing very well with single premium financed M.I. 7% down, around 2.% for the premium, keeping you at 95%...easy sell."
Brent Borcherding  :  "Equities trying to make a defense, but I bet they end in the red today."
Andrew Benson  :  "max: i believe it is available, but I don't know how great pricing is -- i.e., bpmi was pricing better I think."
Christopher Max  :  "Do any wholesalers offer 7/1 LPMI? "
Adam Quinones  :  "S&Ps back over 1270"
Matthew Graham  :  "here is the moderating piece of information regarding philly fed implications: after the recessions in 1990 and 2001, somewhat similar negative anomalies occurred. long period of contraction, noticeable shift to expansion with a few negative readings interspersed in the expanding time frame. In that light, someone could shrug off the data if they wanted to, at least until a negative trend was more established"
Adam Quinones  :  "profit taking in 10s. lots of it..."
Matthew Graham  :  "Aprils 43 reading to today's -7.7 reading is the largest 3 month swing on record"
Adam Quinones  :  "MORE: Only fourteen percent of the firms reported an increase in employment, while 10 percent reported a decline."
Adam Quinones  :  "MORE: Respondents also indicated that a large percentage of their suppliers have instituted surcharges covering recent cost increases: 71 percent of the firms reported surcharges for transportation, 36 percent for commodities, and 36 percent for energy."
Adam Quinones  :  "sounds like a margin squeeze"
Adam Quinones  :  "Excerpt from the Special Questions Portion of the Report: Forty-seven percent of the firms indicated they had increased base prices since the beginning of the year, although 54 percent said they have been unable to pass on cost increases. "
Matthew Graham  :  "As the live update noted, the significance is this: it's the lowest philly fed survey since june 2009. From 2003-present, the survey has been almost exclusively positive with the exception of 12/07 to 7/09"
Adam Quinones  :  "RTRS - PHILLY FED 6-MONTH BUSINESS CONDITIONS INDEX AT LOWEST SINCE DEC 2008 "
Jason Wilborn  :  "that spike from yesterday still looks really cool"
Jason Wilborn  :  "like magic a new MBS update appears"
Victor Burek  :  "so philly and ny manufacturing both contracting"
Matthew Graham  :  "-7.7"
Matthew Graham  :  "philly fed in 2"
Adam Quinones  :  "Mortgages (and MBS) can be thought of as being comprised of a bond with a short position in an option. Since higher volatility causes option values to increase (as it becomes more likely for the underlying asset to trade in-the-money), the short option position embedded in mortgages means that higher vol hurts their valuations. Therefore, the recent jump in option values (reflected in higher implied volatilities) means that, all things equal, MBS had become expensive, and needed to cheapen in "
Adam Quinones  :  "MBS and Volatility: http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/mortgage_rates/blog/80404.aspx"
Matthew Graham  :  "atm swaption straddles are simply instruments in the financial market that allow traders to bet on a certain level of volatility. If things move far enough in one direction or the other, they make money. If they don't move far enough, the cost of the derivatives contract is greater than the return that will be realized with the underlying put/call is exercised"
Matthew Graham  :  "high volatility doesn't necessarily mean MBS prices will fall. For instance, volatility could be high (as it was yesterday afternoon), but MBS still made gains. The "weakness" per se, is not outright weakness in the price, but rather, relative weakness vs "other stuff""
Matthew Graham  :  "well, actually, I can expand a little... volatility is important to all securities in some regard, but especially important to stuff like MBS that have embedded call options (i.e. rates go way down and MBS start paying off much faster than expected--traditionally--just one example). So the higher the volatility, the worse the general implication for MBS vs Benchmarks (like tsys or swaps)."
John Paul Mulchay  :  "*all"
John Paul Mulchay  :  "Gotta love the broad perspective you a view the data. Great mastermind community here. "
Adam Quinones  :  "MBS doing better vs. TSYs as prices back up. Seeing bargain buying on spread from real$"
Adam Quinones  :  "fast$ was long into the test of 3.10%, the technical confirmation surely led their models to add positions into the rally. The group that was short the curve, dealers, has been covering also. So I would say there is a fair balance of activity from a wide range of accounts. Has to be with that much price volatility..."
Matthew Graham  :  "AQ, any reason not to concur with color on majority of volume being fast money?"
Brent Borcherding  :  "That's half a day's worth."
Adam Quinones  :  "cars = jargon for contracts"
Adam Quinones  :  "volume in 10yr contract = HUGE HUGE at 735,817cars"
Adam Quinones  :  "S&Ps are -2 at 1263.50. Overnight low was 1259.50"
Adam Quinones  :  "wider = underperforming = lagging = not keeping up with the benchmark rally!"
Adam Quinones  :  "10s are +18. 4.0s are +6....that is 12 tick difference. When adjusting for different durations (using 65% hedge ratio)...we're another 8/32 wider to 10s today."
Adam Quinones  :  "for anyone else who is curious..."
Adam Quinones  :  "ended 12 ticks wider vs. 5pm marks yesterday."
Adam Quinones  :  "for the advance group im running 4.0s at 65% hedge ratio vs. 10s"
Adam Quinones  :  "mortgages really lagging still. yield spreads at YTD wides."
Matthew Graham  :  "U.S. HOUSE PRICES RISING 0.5 PCT IN 2012 (VS +1.2 PCT IN MAR POLL) "
Matthew Graham  :  "REUTERS POLL-S&P CASE SHILLER U.S. HOUSE PRICES SEEN -5.0 PCT IN 2011 (VS -2.3 PCT IN MAR POLL) "
Adam Quinones  :  "RTRS - US MAY HOUSING PERMITS RATE HIGHEST SINCE DEC 2010 (630,000 UNITS) "
Adam Quinones  :  "RTRS - US MAY SINGLE-FAMILY STARTS +3.7 PCT TO 419,000 UNIT RATE; MULTIFAMILY +2.9 PCT TO 141,000 UNIT RATE "
Adam Quinones  :  "RTRS - US MAY HOUSING PERMITS 612,000 UNIT RATE (CONSENSUS 558,000) VS APRIL 563,000 (PREV 563,000) "
Adam Quinones  :  "RTRS - US MAY HOUSING PERMITS +8.7 PCT VS APRIL -1.9 PCT (PREV -1.9 PCT) "
Adam Quinones  :  "RTRS - US MAY HOUSING STARTS 560,000 UNIT RATE (CONSENSUS 540,000) VS APRIL 541,000 (PREV 523,000) "
Adam Quinones  :  "RTRS - US MAY HOUSING STARTS +3.5 PCT VS APRIL -8.8 PCT (PREV -10.6 PCT) "
Adam Quinones  :  "RTRS - US INSURED UNEMPLOYMENT RATE UNCHANGED AT 2.9 PCT JUNE 4 WEEK FROM PRIOR WEEK (PREV 2.9 PCT) "