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'Unchanged' Feels Like a Victory
Bonds began the day at the highest yields in more than a year and slowly worked their way back to 'unchanged.' Solid justification for the move (in either direction) was elusive. Traders are talking in generalities with topics such as corporate bond issuance and fiscal policy frequently mentioned. European markets were also a factor for bond weakness late in the overnight session and strength in the afternoon. We're left with a reminder that the big picture rising rate trend can't be easily ruled out, and mortgage rate sheets that are still showing battle scars despite positive reprices and MBS prices near unchanged levels.
Econ Data / Events
Fed MBS Buying 10am, 1130am, 1pm
Consumer Confidence 109.7 vs 96.9 f'cast, 90.4 prev Inflation expectations 6.7 vs 6.5 f'cast, 6.3 prev
Market Movement Recap
08:23 AM Sharply weaker overnight in heavy volume and a modest bounce back since then. Biggest moves in Europe, early, but not tied to any standout event (econ data was broadly stronger though). 10yr up 4bps at 1.756 and 2.5 UMBS down almost a quarter point at 102-13 (102.41).
10:34 AM Briefly weaker after the Consumer Confidence numbers (much stronger than expected and inflation expectations noticeably higher), but the general trend has been resilience and modest gains since the domestic open. 10yr up 3bps at 1.75% and 2.5 UMBS down just over an eighth of a point.
12:35 PM Decent little recovery heading into the end of European trading hours. 10yr fell from 1.76 to 1.72, but has bounced a bit in the past half hour (1.73 currently). 2.5 UMBS are now down less than an eighth of a point.
MBS Commentary
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'Unchanged' Feels Like a Victory
Bonds began the day at the highest yields in more than a year and slowly worked their way back to 'unchanged.' Solid justification for the move (in either direction) was... (read more)
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Rob Chrisman
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The demand for shipping on the Suez Canal never stopped. (Do you think this conversation ever took place on the bridge of the Ever Given? “I bet you can’t turn this thing around in the Suez Canal!” “Really? Here, hold my beer.... (read more)
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Housing News
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Freddie Mac reported this week that its total mortgage portfolio increased at an annualized rate of 17.7 percent in February compared to a 16.1 percent gain in January. The portfolio balance at the end of the period was $2.818 trillion compared to $2... (read more)
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Housing News
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The age of the U.S. housing stock is, to a certain extent, a reflection of the decline in new home construction since the onset of the housing crisis. However, Na Zhao, in a blog post in the National Association of Home Builders' (NAHB's) Eye on Hous... (read more)
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Mortgage Rate Watch
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The biggest story for the mortgage and housing market so far in 2021 has been the big spike in mortgage rates. It has been more abrupt and covered more ground than all but the worst historical examples. That said, it was always going to happen when t... (read more)
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Housing News
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For the moment at least, the number of loans in forbearance are heading downhill and picking up speed. Black Knight says the number of active plans declined by 135,000 over the past month (-5 percent), 19,000 (-0.7 percent) occurred in the last week ... (read more)
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National Associattion of Realtors
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National Associattion of Realtors
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