Markets have already shown how well they understand the uniquely massive economic toll taken by coronavirus.  That's why we're able to see things like 6+ million jobless claims and -700k NFP on back to back days that also happened to be the 2 least volatile days in months for Treasuries.  Even so, there's something sobering about the visual impact of this reality on charts.  Here are a few selections from the week ahead.  In each case, the dotted red line is the consensus forecast. For those saying consumer spending should remain strong because everyone's at home shopping online, economists disagree: This one seems to defy logic a bit.  Surely builders must be less confident than late 2018, no? Not a report that we normally pay much attention to, but LEI drew the week's most sobering forecasts (in terms of the distance between 2008 and the consensus for this week). Market reaction remains to be seen in each case.  In general, the data is expected to get worse before it gets better.  That won't even have much of a chance at changing until Jobless Claims return to the sub-500k zone.  This week's forecast suggests we're not quite there (to say the least).

April 13, 2020 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: MBS Commentary MBS Live Week Ahead: This Week's Econ Forecasts Are Sobering Markets have already shown how well they understand the uniquely massive economic toll taken by coronavirus.  That's why we're able to see things like 6+ million jobless claims and -700k NFP on back to back days that also happened to be the 2 le... (read more) Housing News Black Knight's Deep Dive Part 3: How Housing and Mortgages Move On In this third article summarizing an analysis by Black Knight of the potential impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic housing the company looks at mortgage defaults and servicing. It also reviews some of the actions that have already been taken to curb pot... (read more) Housing News Ginnie Mae Will Advance Investor Payments on Non-Current Loans The list of things for the housing industry to worry about in the current COVID-19 emergency has been growing steadily over the last few weeks, but a memo from Ginnie Mae may have eased one of those concerns. Seth Appleton, Ginnie Mae's Principal Exe... (read more) Rob Chrisman SBA PPP, Processing Products; Ginnie's Issuer Assistance; Banks' Stress Test Changes; Forbearance Policies It was a rough weekend. The still in our basement blew up, throwing potatoes everywhere and setting us back weeks. That happened just as I was sending someone an email how bank balance sheets can hold only so much jumbo residential production, and if... (read more) Housing News Millennials and How They've Changed Housing Millennials have lagged most of their predecessor generations in terms of their homeownership rate but when they did begin to buy, they become the fastest growing market segment. The Census Bureau says the homeownership rate for those 25 to 34 years ... (read more) Mortgage Rate Watch Mortgage Rates Showing Some Signs of Improvement Just as the mortgage industry was coming to terms with unprecedented market volatility due to coronavirus, the details of the CARES Act (the coronavirus rescue/stimulus/relief bill) presented their own set of challenges. For some lenders and borrower... (read more) Mortgage Rates 30 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.75% +0.02% Rate Change Points Mortgage News Daily 30 Yr. Fixed 6.75% +0.02 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.98% +0.01 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 6.27% +0.02 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.85% +0.01 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 6.32% -0.01 0.00 30 Yr. VA 6.29% +0.03 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 7/3 15 Yr. Fixed Rate 5.98% +0.01% Rate Change Points Freddie Mac 30 Yr. Fixed 6.67% -0.10 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.80% -0.09 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 7/3 Rate Change Points Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.79% -0.09 0.62 15 Yr. Fixed 6.06% -0.05 0.67 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.78% -0.10 0.40 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 6/26 MBS / Treasuries UMBS 30YR 5.5 99.64 -0.20 Price / Yield Change MBS UMBS 5.5 99.64 -0.20 UMBS 6.0 101.43 -0.13 GNMA 5.5 99.86 -0.11 GNMA 6.0 101.34 -0.06 Pricing as of: 7/6 7:29PM EST 10 Year US Treasury 4.3467 +0.0669 Price / Yield Change US Treasury 2 YR Treasury 3.883 +0.095 5 YR Treasury 3.937 +0.070 7 YR Treasury 4.125 +0.068 10 YR Treasury 4.347 +0.067 30 YR Treasury 4.863 +0.055 Pricing as of: 7/6 7:29PM EST Latest Video Around two million borrowers have applied for forbearance programs Home builders are a bright spot even as coronavirus hits traffic What's ahead for bond ETFs after the Fed's backstop, according to top issue... Many small businesses still waiting for PPP loans Around the Web CNBC Borrower requests for government's coronavirus mortgage bailout jump 78% in one week NAR - Realtor.com The Mortgage Industry Is Facing a Crisis Because of the Coronavirusand Borrowers Could Fall Through the Cracks freddiemac.gcs-web.com Freddie Mac Quarterly Forecast: The Housing Market Faces Challenges Amid Economic Uncertainty Calculated Risk Blog What is a Recession? What is a Depression? CNBC Here's why it's suddenly much harder to get a mortgage, or even refinance NY Fed New York Fed purchases $16.000 billion in Treasury coupons NAHB Eye on Housing Southwest Led GDP Growth In 2019 Reuters U.S. coronavirus outbreak could peak this week, CDC director says Calculated Risk Blog Black Knight Mortgage Monitor for Febuary; "Unemployment Spike Triggering Surge in Mortgage Forbearance Requests" CNBC Mark Cuban: 'Banks are playing' games on loans, leaving small businesses 'out in the cold' Reuters Oil prices turn negative after early gains on record output cut apartmentlist.com Nearly One-Quarter of Americans Couldn't Pay Their April Housing Bill freddiemac.gcs-web.com Freddie Mac Announces Enhanced Relief for Borrowers Impacted by COVID-19

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