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Uneventful Month-End Day For Bonds, But MBS Outperform
Final trial results for Moderna's vaccine (it's still really good, by the way) failed to produce a huge reaction in markets overnight, but it did coincide with higher Treasury yields to start the day. As bonds recovered, MBS outperformed--at first, by a little. Then, by a lot. Month-end trading motivations were the only game in town when it came to assigning blame for all of the micro movement. The Fed's MBS buying operation from 1pm-120pm was clearly the motivation for the final surge in MBS in the afternoon.
Econ Data / Events
20min of Fed 30yr UMBS Buying 10am, 1130am (M-F) and 1pm (T-Th)
Chicago PMI 58.2 vs 59.0 f'cast, 61.1 prev
Pending Home Sales -1.1 vs +1.0 f'cast, -2.0 prev
Market Movement Recap
08:54 AM Stocks and bond yields moved lower during Asian hours but bounced in Europe. Moderna's final trial results added to stock optimism and bond weakness, but only modestly. Bonds are still fairly close to Friday's latest levels with 10yr yields up 1bp at .852 and 1.5 UMBS nearly unchanged at 101.
01:24 PM Bonds have been rallying modestly all morning with 10yr yields just turning positive on the day. MBS have been outperforming and 1.5 coupons are now up an eighth of a point. Chalk this up to a supportive reaction from buyers after "fast money" traders sold bonds early this morning on Moderna's final vaccine trial news. There was also a modicum of month-end buying for traders that didn't get their fill last week.
04:06 PM Strong gains for MBS (on top of Friday's strong gains), despite Treasuries being flat to slightly weaker. Trading was uneventful in the bigger picture, driven mainly by month-end positioning. MBS drew strength from Fed buying operations with the most noticeable pop following the final installment at 1-120pm ET.
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MBS Commentary
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Uneventful Month-End Day For Bonds, But MBS Outperform
Final trial results for Moderna's vaccine (it's still really good, by the way) failed to produce a huge reaction in markets overnight, but it did coincid... (read more) |
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Housing News
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While this COVID-19 positive year has certainly been an exception, spring is usually considered the optimum time , on both sides of the transaction, to buy or sell a home. A new study, by ATTOM Data Solutions, indicates that one side of the equation ... (read more) |
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Housing News
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Pending home sales, which ended a four-month streak of gains in September with a 2.2 percent decline, slipped further in October. The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) said its Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI), a measure based on contracts s... (read more) |
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Rob Chrisman
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Thank you to Tracy C. sent, “An unemployed court jester is nobody’s fool.” There are millions of unemployed U.S. citizens, and the CFPB, HUD, and other federal agencies have partnered to encourage homeowners who are struggling finan... (read more) |
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Mortgage Rate Watch
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If you follow the MBS Commentary channel on this site, you will have already seen most of the following, but it's relevant for consumers as well. As far as mortgage rates are concerned, the increase in conforming loan limits doesn't have a direct imp... (read more) |
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Housing News
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Despite a second consecutive modest weekly increase , the number of loans in forbearance continue to trend well below those at the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic. Black Knight said there was an uptick of 27,000 loans in forbearance plans during the pe... (read more) |
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