Abandon Hope, All Ye Who Float Overnight We're putting in for permits to build our own Pirates of the Caribbean ride at MBS Live world headquarters.  There will be more waterfalls, and they'll be sharper.  We're mapping the slope based on bond prices, after all.  We'll even keep with some familiar elements such as the "abandon hope" sign.  That was certainly the bond market's message to floaters today.  See the Day Ahead commentary for more thoughts on the move and the Lock/Float section for specific thoughts on strategy.   Econ Data / Events Fed MBS Buying  10am, 1130am, 1pm Philly Fed 51.8 vs 23.0, 23.1 Prev Jobless Claims 770k vs 700k f'cast, 725k prev Market Movement Recap 08:36 AM Bonds crushed overnight in massive volume.  10yr yields up to 1.754 at highs, 1.74% currently.  MBS off 3/8ths of a point.  01:26 PM VERY calm and sideways after  the opening weakness.  Nothing to report other than modestly refreshing ground-holding. 04:04 PM Today is setting some sort of record for the most striking juxtaposition of overnight weakness with domestic-session stability. Treasuries tried to rally a bit as stocks slumped into the NYSE close, but that didn't last long.  Yields are 7+bps higher at 1.72%.  MBS are unchanged from the last update, holding just about half a point weaker on the day.

March 18, 2021 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: 30 Yr. Fixed 6.13% -0.12%   6.11% 7.26% 15 Yr. Fixed 5.71% +0.00%   5.54% 6.59% 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.15% -0.10%   6.15% 7.45% Compare Mortgage Rates from Local Lenders for Mar 18, 2021 Mortgage Rates End High After Starting Day Higher Wed, Mar 17, 2021 4:39PM Mortgage rates started the day in bad shape after significant bond market weakness overnight. Treasury yields rose roughly 0.05%, and that sort of move typically coincides with mortgage rates rising nearly as much. Today wasn't much of an exception. The average lender started out with effective 30yr fixed rates roughly 0.03-0.04% higher than yesterday, which means they were the highest in a year! Note: when we reference higher "effective rates," it usually means that the costs associated with yesterday's rates have moved as opposed to the rate itself. Those upfront costs provide more of a fine... (read more) Mortgage News Daily Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.13% -0.12 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.71% 0.00 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 5.91% -0.08 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.15% -0.10 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 5.65% +0.01 0.00 30 Yr. VA 5.92% -0.09 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 9/16 Freddie Mac Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.35% -0.15 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.50% -0.10 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 9/11 Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.49% -0.15 0.56 15 Yr. Fixed 5.70% -0.14 0.55 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.44% -0.14 0.48 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 9/10 UMBS 30YR 5.0 99.96 +0.01   95.05 100.50 UMBS 30YR 5.5 101.26 +0.03   97.47 101.61 10 YR Treasury 4.028 -0.003   3.643 4.780 MBS Live Recap: Abandon Hope, All Ye Who Float Overnight Thu, Mar 18, 2021 4:09PM Abandon Hope, All Ye Who Float Overnight We're putting in for permits to build our own Pirates of the Caribbean ride at MBS Live world headquarters.  There will be more waterfalls, and they'll be sharper.  We're mapping the slope based on bond prices, after all.  We'll even keep with some familiar elem... (read more) MBS Price Change UMBS 4.5 98.03 -0.01 UMBS 5.0 99.96 +0.01 UMBS 5.5 101.26 +0.03 GNMA 4.5 98.16 +0.00 GNMA 5.0 100.25 +0.05 GNMA 5.5 101.17 -0.04 Pricing as of: 9/17 12:17AM EST US Treasury Yield Change 2 YR Treasury 3.506 +0.003 5 YR Treasury 3.585 -0.001 7 YR Treasury 3.773 +0.002 10 YR Treasury 4.028 -0.003 30 YR Treasury 4.647 -0.004 Pricing as of: 9/17 12:17AM EST Other News Builder Survey Predicts a Dip in New Home Sales Thu, Mar 18, 2021 1:27PM The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) is predicting a slowdown in new home sales when the Census Bureau releases its statistics next week. MBA's Builder Application Survey (BAS) data for February 2021 shows mortgage applications for new home purchases increased 9.2 percent compared to a year ago but were down by 9 percent year-over-year. This change does no... (read more) Millennials Make up Largest Share of Buyers for 8th Consecutive Year Wed, Mar 17, 2021 10:25AM Whether or not it was another biproduct of the pandemic, The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) said the popularity of multigenerational homes increased last year. Homes that will house adult siblings, adult children, parents, or grandparents were purchased by 18 percent of homebuyers between the ages of 41 to 65. Those aged 75 to 95 were the second... (read more) Construction Starts and Permits Took a Double-Digit Hit in February Wed, Mar 17, 2021 10:20AM It looked last month as though residential construction was about to take off. While starts were down in January, permits surged by 10.4 percent. Builders apparently had second thoughts in February as both measures fell by double digits. The U.S. Census Bureau and Department of Housing and Urban Development said permits for construction of residential units ... (read more) MLO Jobs; Pricing, Sales, DPA, QC Reporting Products; Wholesale and Correspondent News; Bond Market/Fed Disconnect Thu, Mar 18, 2021 10:11AM The Internal Revenue Service is not known for being creative, but yesterday it was announced that the usual tax deadline of 4/15 has been moved to 5/15. People can be creative. For example, here are easy steps on how to walk into a room and interrupt yourself during a Zoom meeting. Plenty of folks are weary of having Zoom meetings, and are anxious for a retu... (read more) Latest Video The 9am Bond Report - March 18, 2021 U.S. weekly jobless claims jump higher to 770,000 How the market is reacting to Jerome Powell's decision on interest rates Powell dodges supplementary leverage ratio question, saying there will be s... Around the Web Calculated Risk Blog Maryland Real Estate in February: Sales Up 12% YoY, Inventory Down 66% YoY Reuters U.S. housing secretary looking to restore Trump cuts to fair housing laws CNBC Mortgage rates just moved sharply higher, but homebuyer competition is fiercer than ever Reuters Analysis: U.S. bond market feels like 'coiled spring' after Fed meeting Reuters U.S. weekly jobless claims rise; mid-Atlantic factory activity near 50-year high Calculated Risk Blog Hotels: Occupancy Rate Highest in a Year; Down 26% Compared to Same Week in 2019 Reuters Nasdaq slumps as bond yields surge CNBC U.S. weekly jobless claims total 770,000, vs 700,000 estimate Redfin 36% of Homes Sold Above List Price in February, the Highest Share on Record Reuters Analysis: U.S. Fed's Powell faces political test on bank capital relief question Reuters Nasdaq futures drop about 1% as bond yields spike Reuters Fed sees growth surge, jump in inflation in 2021 but no change on rates wp-tid.zillowstatic.com Zillow Slideshow on Covid's Housing Impact

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