The day is young, but off to an uncommonly volatile start following 2 key inputs.  The overnight session brought news of the Senate passing the $1.9 trillion spending bill.  Bond yields surged higher as a result.  The second input was the big miss in the jobs report (combined with the big beat in the unemployment rate).  The initial reaction was strongly positive, but it has since reversed course (and then reversed again, and then again one more time).  All of the bond market volatility is playing out in a vacuum that almost completely ignores the stock market.  If you ever wondered whether or not NFP deserves the title of the most consequential economic report for the bond market, days like today make it clear. 

February 5, 2021 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: MBS Commentary MBS Live Day Ahead: Bipolar NFP = Bipolar Market Reaction The day is young, but off to an uncommonly volatile start following 2 key inputs.  The overnight session brought news of the Senate passing the $1.9 trillion spending bill.  Bond yields surged higher as a result.  The second input was ... (read more) Rob Chrisman Lock Desk, Credit, MLO, Ops Jobs; Underwriting, Pricing tools; DACA, URLA Changes; Primer on the Secondary Markets Making headlines is United Wholesale averaging $15 billion a month in production and earning total net income of $3.4 billion for 2020 , quite a change from the $415 million of net income in 2019. And over time, we change. In your 20s: “I fell ... (read more) Housing News CFPB's New Seasoning Rule is Already Showing Promise The Urban Institute (UI) has looked at a final mortgage rule issued by the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB) in late 2020 which would provide a 3-year pathway to safe harbor for loans that are a rebuttable presumption or nonqualified mortga... (read more) Mortgage Rate Watch Mortgage Rates Slightly Higher Mortgage Rates were steady to slightly lower yesterday even though prevailing trends in the bond market suggested caution. Today's trading is a different story. Granted, there haven't been any huge, dramatic moves, but today's bond market weakness ad... (read more) Housing News December Home Price Gains Shot Up 9% Annually CoreLogic reports that December saw yet another acceleration in home price increases. The company's Home Price Index (HPI) rose 9.2 percent on an annual basis. The increase in November was 8.2 percent. The month-over-month change, 1.1 percent, was al... (read more) Housing News Residential Construction Spending Grew by 11.8% in 2020 Public and privately funded construction spending ended 2020 with a 4.7 percent increase over spending in 2019. The U.S. Census Bureau said the combined outlays for the recent year was $1.430 trillion compared to 1.365 trillion the prior year. Reside... (read more) Mortgage Rates 30 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.82% -0.02% Rate Change Points Mortgage News Daily 30 Yr. Fixed 6.82% -0.02 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.04% -0.06 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 6.30% -0.07 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.90% -0.04 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 6.39% -0.02 0.00 30 Yr. VA 6.31% -0.07 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 6/24 15 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.04% -0.06% Rate Change Points Freddie Mac 30 Yr. Fixed 6.81% -0.03 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.96% -0.01 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 6/18 Rate Change Points Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.84% -0.09 0.66 15 Yr. Fixed 6.14% -0.02 0.70 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.81% -0.12 0.63 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 6/18 MBS / Treasuries UMBS 30YR 5.5 99.61 -0.02 Price / Yield Change MBS UMBS 5.5 99.59 -0.04 UMBS 6.0 101.39 -0.03 GNMA 5.5 99.83 -0.01 GNMA 6.0 101.26 -0.07 Pricing as of: 6/25 2:32PM EST 10 Year US Treasury 4.3043 +0.0118 Price / Yield Change US Treasury 2 YR Treasury 3.799 -0.023 5 YR Treasury 3.868 +0.008 7 YR Treasury 4.069 +0.008 10 YR Treasury 4.309 +0.017 30 YR Treasury 4.855 +0.032 Pricing as of: 6/25 2:32PM EST Latest Video January jobs numbers were weaker than expected, says Goldman's Hatzius The Bond Report - 9am - February 05, 2021 FDA advisory meeting on J&J emergency approval request set for Feb. 26 U.S. added 49,000 jobs in January vs. 50,000 expected Around the Web Calculated Risk Blog AAR: January Rail Carloads down 2.1% YoY, Intermodal Up 12.1% YoY Calculated Risk Blog Comments on January Employment Report Calculated Risk Blog Trade Deficit Decreased to $66.6 Billion in December Reuters Biden says jobs data shows need for action on coronavirus relief bill CNBC Here's where the jobs are in one chart CNBC UK in a different place' from the euro zone on negative rates, Bank of England says CNBC U.S. added 49,000 jobs in January vs. 50,000 expected Calculated Risk Blog Goldman January Payrolls Preview Calculated Risk Blog January Employment Preview CNBC Jobs growth likely rebounded in January, but the extent of the recovery depends on hotels and restaurants CNBC Fewer people may qualify for the $1,400 stimulus payments. Here's why Reuters U.S. Senate Democrats set for first step on road to new COVID-19 relief Reuters Wall St rises as focus turns to stimulus, corporate earnings

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