With 10yr yields breaking the 1.075% technical floor on Monday, the bond market added evidence to the case for a move back to 1.0%.  Today's early gains make the evidence nearly overwhelming with yields less than half a basis point away at times.  With the Fed coming up this afternoon, it would only take a mildly stronger reaction to break the 1.0% floor .  What happens after a break below 1.0% though?  The prevailing trend implies heavier resistance around 0.97-0.98%. Specifically, the lower boundary of the "trend channel" (yellow lines below) runs through .98 today.  It would require another fairly decent bond rally to get there, but it's not outside the realm of possibility. Such a move could be a blessing or a curse.  If the trend keeps doing what it's been doing since August, a move to .97/.98 suggests a stronger possibility of another bounce, or at least another slow grind higher like the trading seen in Q4. The Fed announcement comes out at 2pm and Powell's press conference begins at 2:30pm.  As far as the Fed's current stance is concerned, we're more likely to see/hear market movers in the press conference, if at all.  Markets want reassurance (again!) that the Fed isn't even talking about tapering its asset purchases yet.

January 27, 2021 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: MBS Commentary MBS Live Day Ahead: Friendly Bond Bounce Continues as 10s Target 1.0% With 10yr yields breaking the 1.075% technical floor on Monday, the bond market added evidence to the case for a move back to 1.0%.  Today's early gains make the evidence nearly overwhelming with yields less than half a basis point away at times... (read more) Rob Chrisman Encompass, Training, Credit Risk Jobs; Pricing, Sales, Reno Products; Training on Securitization and Other Upcoming Events Just a couple more weeks until my uncle sends me a text asking if I’ve seen these funny photos of Bernie Sanders , of which there are no shortage. There is, however, a shortage of houses out there for the 70+ million Millennials to buy, even if... (read more) Housing News Loans Still Taking 2 Months to Close as Refi Demand Stays Strong The interest rates on 30-year fixed rate mortgages originated in December reached an all-time low in ICE Mortgage Technology's (formerly Ellie Mae's) records, an average of 2.93 percent and a 4-basis point decline from the November rate. The company,... (read more) Mortgage Rate Watch Mortgage Rates Down Only Slightly Despite Bond Market Rally What's a bond market rally and why should mortgage rates care? There are all kinds of bonds. US Treasuries would be the quintessential example, but there are also bonds specific to the mortgage market. These are what groups of loans ultimately become... (read more) Housing News November Home Prices Climbed at Highest Rate in Six Years The annual increases in U.S. home prices is nearing dizzying levels. The November data from the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) crossed into double digits for the second consecutive month while the months numbers from S&P CoreLogic Case-Shi... (read more) Housing News Existing Home Sales Reach Highest Levels Since 2006 Existing home sales resumed an upward trajectory in December. After drifting lower by 2.5 percent in November, breaking a five-month streak of gains , the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) said sales in the last month of the year rose 0.7 p... (read more) Mortgage Rates 30 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.81% -0.01% Rate Change Points Mortgage News Daily 30 Yr. Fixed 6.81% -0.01 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.04% -0.03 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 6.39% -0.01 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.92% 0.00 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 6.27% -0.04 0.00 30 Yr. VA 6.40% -0.02 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 7/18 15 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.04% -0.03% Rate Change Points Freddie Mac 30 Yr. Fixed 6.75% +0.03 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.92% +0.06 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 7/17 Rate Change Points Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.82% +0.05 0.62 15 Yr. Fixed 6.11% +0.07 0.66 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.81% +0.12 0.39 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 7/16 MBS / Treasuries UMBS 30YR 5.5 99.24 +0.12 Price / Yield Change MBS UMBS 5.5 99.24 +0.12 UMBS 6.0 101.20 +0.08 GNMA 5.5 99.55 +0.27 GNMA 6.0 101.21 +0.24 Pricing as of: 7/18 6:41PM EST 10 Year US Treasury 4.4195 -0.0338 Price / Yield Change US Treasury 2 YR Treasury 3.870 -0.034 5 YR Treasury 3.946 -0.044 7 YR Treasury 4.172 -0.038 10 YR Treasury 4.420 -0.034 30 YR Treasury 4.984 -0.024 Pricing as of: 7/18 6:41PM EST Latest Video Fed Chair Powell on whether he's concerned about a housing bubble Fed Chair Jerome Powell on whether the central bank can avoid a taper tantr... Federal Reserve leaves interest rates unchanged The Bond Report - 9am - January 27, 2021 Around the Web NPR Down But Not Out: Pandemic Likely Dealt Blow To Economy But There's Room For Hope CNBC Federal Reserve leaves interest rates and asset purchases unchanged, sees growth slowing CNBC Fed Chairman Powell will try to soothe markets, but that may not work news.google.com Fed set to release monetary policy decision CNBC Nearly one third of U.S. homes are at high risk of natural disaster, a new study says CNBC Treasury yields dip slightly ahead of speech from Fed Chair Powell Yahoo News US durable goods orders show modest 0.2% December gain Calculated Risk Blog Wednesday: FOMC Statement CNBC Fed will need to reassure the market it's not thinking about dialing back its support Calculated Risk Blog BLS: December Unemployment rates down in 19 States, Higher in 12 States Calculated Risk Blog Real House Prices and Price-to-Rent Ratio in November NAHB Eye on Housing COVID-19 Continues to Impact Home Purchasing Plans CNBC White House signals it could agree to more narrowly targeted stimulus checks

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