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More Defensive But Not Without Hope
2 weeks ago, a heavy slate of supply contributed to small-scale panic in the bond market. Tensions eased last week and technical ceilings were confirmed. With another slate of Treasury supply kicking off on Tuesday, we're on the lookout for last week's linear, positive trend to face some resistance. If we don't see any, it would speak volumes to market's comfort level in a narrow range near all-time lows.
Econ Data / Events
20min of Fed 30yr UMBS Buying 10am, 1130am (M-F) and 1pm (T-Th)
Market Movement Recap
08:29 AM Initially flat overnight before following European yields higher at 3am. Bonds calmed down a bit heading into domestic hours, but both Treasuries and MBS are slightly weaker now. Stocks are up almost a percent to new record highs (S&P futures).
10:23 AM Bonds turned more decisively positive (if anything can be decisive in such a narrow overall range) after the 9:30am NYSE Open. The timing and the correlation with slumping stocks made a clear case for a quick little rotation out of stocks and into bonds. Both are bouncing back in the other direction now, but 10yr yields are still nearly a bp lower on the day and UMBS 2.0s are up nearly an eighth.
11:53 AM Fed buying operation saw big supply (11:30-11:50am) and MBS are falling back to the AM lows in its wake. 2.0 UMBS now down 2 ticks (0.06) on the day and more than an eighth from the highs. Treasury selling isn't helping.
MBS Commentary
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More Defensive But Not Without Hope
2 weeks ago, a heavy slate of supply contributed to small-scale panic in the bond market. Tensions eased last week and technical ceilings were confirmed. With a... (read more)
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Rob Chrisman
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Winter is coming. I don’t need a new coat to walk from my bedroom through the kitchen and into the dining room to work on this commentary. Who is buying neckties or new dress shoes, or spending money renting cars, going to a theater, or having ... (read more)
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Mortgage Rate Watch
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Several new reports confirm the housing market is soaring right now, but the headlines don't tell the whole story. On Friday, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported July's existing home sales came in at an annual pace of 5.86 million hom... (read more)
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Housing News
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Like the report from Black Knight earlier today, the second quarter National Delinquency Survey from the Mortgage Bankers Association shows the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic fading a bit in early delinquency numbers but surging within the more ser... (read more)
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Housing News
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Existing-home sales posted a second month of significant sales gains in July, building on a record 20.7 percent increase in June. The National Association of Realtors ® (NAR) said sales were at a seasonally adjusted 5.86 million units, a 24.7 per... (read more)
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Housing News
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The financial impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic are beginning to emerge and while it appears the crisis initially hit homeowners hard, the duration of the problem is murky. Short term delinquencies are declining, with fewer homeowners entering forbear... (read more)
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