There's no doubt you'll see excellent mortgage rates when this morning's rate sheets come out.  Many lenders will be at or below their previous all-time lows.  Many others will be slightly above.  And on average, rates will remain in trend that's better described as flat instead of falling .  What's wrong with that?  Nothing really-- especially when rates are in line with record lows.  There is something that's interesting about it though, and it's easy to see when we compare MBS price movement to average rates.   Because MBS trade in price, the easiest way to see correlation with rates is to invert one of the lines (otherwise they'd move in opposite directions).  All that to preface the following chart which shows UMBS 2.0 prices inverted (the lower the orange line goes, the higher MBS prices are).  During more normal times, mortgage rates and the MBS line would be right on top of each other.  This time, not so much. I'm not giving you this heads-up to frustrate anyone or to make you pound your fists on the table and demand lower rates.  Quite the opposite!  This chart should be exciting.  If lenders tried to run this race like the hare, they'd cause bigger problems for prepayment speeds than we're already seeing.  The athletic tortoise approach is what will give you and your clients the best combination of low rates and stability.  And to be sure, rates can and will move lower if MBS remain in this territory.  But the most exciting part is the implication that rates have some insulation against any potential bond market weakness--something we'll start to look out for if 10yr yields make a strong move back up and over the recently broken range boundary at .58%. Today is the last trading day of the month.  As such, there can be some seemingly random momentum due to certain compulsory trades among money managers with deadlines to meet.  MBS Live members can read more on that in this primer.

July 31, 2020 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: MBS Commentary MBS Live Day Ahead: Month-End; Breakout Confirmation; Mortgage Rates Stuck? There's no doubt you'll see excellent mortgage rates when this morning's rate sheets come out.  Many lenders will be at or below their previous all-time lows.  Many others will be slightly above.  And on average, rates will remain in t... (read more) Mortgage Rate Watch Mortgage Rates Fall Nicely, But The Going Gets Tougher From Here Mortgage rates improved nicely overnight. The average lender's morning rates were very close to the lowest levels ever . This was a distinct possibility based on yesterday afternoon's bond market movement. Mortgage rates are most directly influenced ... (read more) Rob Chrisman Servicing, Appraisal, Sales Jobs; Broker, Valuation Products; FHA, and Ginnie Changes; HUD Addresses the Self-employed Whether it is Northern Virginia or Lake Tahoe , we’re running out of houses. The pandemic has caused a buyer feeding frenzy away from apartments and city cores. Heck, I can hardly wait to sell my house! The problem is… where would I live... (read more) Housing News JD Power Ranks Mortgage Servicer Satisfaction The performance of mortgage loan servicers is lacking in the eyes of many of their customers, even this early in the pandemic driven recession. J.D. Power's 2020 U.S. Primarily Mortgage Servicer Satisfaction Study found customers reporting long wait ... (read more) Housing News Fannie and Freddie Remain Profitable Despite Mortgage Delinquencies Both government supported enterprises (GSE) reported increased profits in the second quarter of 2020 compared to Q1. Fannie Mae said its net comprehensive income was $2.53 billion compared to $476 million and Freddie Mac's quarterly results were 1.94... (read more) Housing News Pending Home Sales Continue Remarkable Rebound Pending home sales soared again in June, although the liftoff was relatively shallow compared to the 43 percent increase in May. The National Association of Realtors'® (NAR's) Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI). The index, a forward-looking indicato... (read more) Mortgage Rates 30 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.96% +0.00% Rate Change Points Mortgage News Daily 30 Yr. Fixed 6.96% 0.00 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.21% -0.02 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 6.45% -0.01 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 7.05% 0.00 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 6.24% +0.01 0.00 30 Yr. VA 6.46% -0.02 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 6/3 15 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.21% -0.02% Rate Change Points Freddie Mac 30 Yr. Fixed 6.89% +0.03 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.03% +0.02 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 5/29 Rate Change Points Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.92% +0.06 0.69 15 Yr. Fixed 6.21% +0.09 0.72 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.94% +0.09 0.72 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 5/21 MBS / Treasuries UMBS 30YR 5.5 98.83 +0.03 Price / Yield Change MBS UMBS 5.5 98.83 +0.03 UMBS 6.0 100.90 +0.04 GNMA 5.5 99.12 0.00 GNMA 6.0 100.86 +0.01 Pricing as of: 6/4 2:30AM EST 10 Year US Treasury 4.4493 -0.0163 Price / Yield Change US Treasury 2 YR Treasury 3.953 -0.002 5 YR Treasury 4.021 -0.002 7 YR Treasury 4.225 -0.003 10 YR Treasury 4.451 -0.015 30 YR Treasury 4.975 -0.011 Pricing as of: 6/4 2:30AM EST Latest Video Evictions crisis could become a financial crisis, too—Here's how Jumbo, conforming rate spread at widest level since 2013: Financial analyst How commercial real estate companies are faring during the coronavirus pand... White House economist Joe LaVorgna: We're viewing massive GDP plunge as a '... Around the Web CNBC Earnings: Housing is on fire, but apparel and restaurants are struggling Calculated Risk Blog Comparing US, EU and China GDP Calculated Risk Blog Early Q3 GDP Forecasts CNBC $600 unemployment booster isn't primary reason people do or do not work: Yale economists CNBC What to do if you're at risk of eviction now that the CARES Act moratorium has ended Calculated Risk Blog Real Personal Income less Transfer Payments NAHB Eye on Housing Multiple Offers For Homes on the Market Are Becoming More Common Redfin Condo Prices Down 1.4% in June, Sales Down 31%, But Demand Is Ticking Up Calculated Risk Blog Personal Income decreased 1.1% in June, Spending increased 5.6% CNBC UK PM Boris Johnson postpones easing of coronavirus lockdown measures in England CNBC Coronavirus live updates: U.S. cases jump by 67,000; Sanofi, GSK nab $2.1 billion in vaccine deal CNBC 10-year Treasury yield falls close to 0.52% after record GDP contraction CNBC How the HEALS Act compares to the HEROES Act

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