Bond Market Modestly But Disappointingly Weak Despite Stock Sell-Off Bonds started out weaker and looked like they might make a recovery in the afternoon thanks to a big stock sell-off. But yields refused to move back below the .76% pivot point. That's not the end of the world, but if bonds were inclined to rally or if they were feeling resilient, that would have been a good excuse to move into positive territory on the day. Failing to do so sends a somewhat ominous signal about the path ahead. Econ Data / Events 20min of Fed 30yr UMBS Buying  10am, 1130am (M-F) and 1pm (T-Th) NAHB Builder Confidence 85 vs 83 f'cast, 83 prev Market Movement Recap 08:21 AM Bonds modestly weaker overnight with almost all of the losses hitting immediately after London opened.  The culprit seems fairly conclusive: Brexit headlines.  Yes, it still matters apparently!  S&P futures up 0.7% and 10yr yields up 2.34 bps.  MBS down 2 ticks (-0.06). 12:59 PM Decent recovery for bonds with MBS now unchanged and Treasuries down to the .76% pivot point (still one bp higher on the day).  Weakness in stocks and a rally in EU bonds both helped. 03:27 PM Heading into the final hour of trade with MBS near their weakest levels of the day.  Treasuries are near their strongest levels but yields are still higher on the day.  That's disappointing considering the depth of the reversal in stocks.

October 19, 2020 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: 30 Yr. Fixed 6.25% -0.04%   6.11% 7.26% 15 Yr. Fixed 5.71% -0.01%   5.54% 6.59% 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.25% +0.00%   6.25% 7.45% Compare Mortgage Rates from Local Lenders for Oct 19, 2020 Low Rates Will Face More Volatility Risk in Coming Weeks Fri, Oct 16, 2020 5:03PM Yesterday, we discussed why rates are not actually at all-time lows. But rates are whatever they are. They're relation to previous lows doesn't really matter at the end of the day. Do you benefit from refinancing? Can you afford your new purchase payment? Great! Don't worry if the rate is technically not an all-time low. I'm just on a crusade for journalistic accuracy, shouting at my own little wall over here. More important than the outright level of interest rates is the risk of volatility on the horizon. With everything the economy and financial markets have been through in 2020, the past f... (read more) Mortgage News Daily Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.25% -0.04 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.71% -0.01 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 5.99% -0.01 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.25% 0.00 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 5.64% -0.01 0.00 30 Yr. VA 6.01% 0.00 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 9/15 Freddie Mac Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.35% -0.15 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.50% -0.10 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 9/11 Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.49% -0.15 0.56 15 Yr. Fixed 5.70% -0.14 0.55 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.44% -0.14 0.48 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 9/10 UMBS 30YR 5.5 101.30 +0.17   97.47 101.61 UMBS 30YR 6.0 102.45 +0.06   99.66 102.50 10 YR Treasury 4.035 -0.031   3.621 4.780 MBS Live Recap: Bond Market Modestly But Disappointingly Weak Despite Stock Sell-Off Mon, Oct 19, 2020 3:42PM Bond Market Modestly But Disappointingly Weak Despite Stock Sell-Off Bonds started out weaker and looked like they might make a recovery in the afternoon thanks to a big stock sell-off. But yields refused to move back below the .76% pivot point. That's not the end of the world, but if bonds were inclined to rally or ... (read more) MBS Price Change UMBS 5.0 99.93 +0.30 UMBS 5.5 101.29 +0.16 UMBS 6.0 102.45 +0.05 GNMA 5.0 100.21 +0.21 GNMA 5.5 101.20 +0.07 GNMA 6.0 102.01 +0.00 Pricing as of: 9/15 5:40PM EST US Treasury Yield Change 2 YR Treasury 3.538 -0.015 5 YR Treasury 3.605 -0.026 7 YR Treasury 3.789 -0.027 10 YR Treasury 4.037 -0.030 30 YR Treasury 4.654 -0.028 Pricing as of: 9/15 5:40PM EST Other News Builder Confidence Sets a New Record Once Again Mon, Oct 19, 2020 10:33AM For only the second time in its 35-year history, the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) topped 80 this month. The first time was in September. The index, a measure of builder confidence in the market for newly built single-family homes increased two points to 85, breaking the previous high of 83 set last month... (read more) Second Homes, Widespread but Few in Number Mon, Oct 19, 2020 10:31AM There were approximately 7.5 million second homes in the U.S. in 2018, the most recent year for which data is available. This is 5.5 percent of the nation's total housing stock. Na Zhao, writing in the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB's) Eye on Housing blog, says the largest share of these homes are in Florida with a total of 1.1 million homes, 14... (read more) Forbearances Up Slightly After Last Week's Plunge Fri, Oct 16, 2020 10:30AM Last week Black Knight reported that the beginning of October saw a decline in the number of active forbearance plans of 649,000 or 18 percent as many plans reached the end of their initial period. It was the largest single week decline since the crisis began. This week the number of loans in forbearance edged up a bit. The company reported an increase of 19... (read more) Compliance, AE, MLO Jobs; Marketing, Broker, Servicing Products; Online Disclosure Survey Mon, Oct 19, 2020 8:45AM Fifteen days until the election! How many days would it take you, or the company that employs you, to save up $11 million? In my discussions with CEOs, they are more concerned about how the election may impact the future regulatory environment than interest rates. I mention that because Florida’s Ocwen Financial Corp. (“New Co.” spelled bac... (read more) Latest Video 10-year Treasury yield hits highest level in more than a week Homebuilder sentiment jumped in October, the second month in a row This holiday season could be the first time sales are left on the table: Re... Industrial production dropped 0.6% in September, vs 0.5% increase expected Around the Web CNBC Bostic says the Fed needs to do more to address racial economic impact from the pandemic Calculated Risk Blog Lawler: Early Read on Existing Home Sales in September Calculated Risk Blog DOT: Vehicle Miles Driven decreased 12.3% year-over-year in August news.google.com Powell: Fed open to private sector collaboration in possible digital dollar CNBC Homebuilder sentiment sets another record high in October NAHB Eye on Housing Lot Values Down in 2019 news.google.com Treasury yields jump amid renewed stimulus hopes CNBC Watch Fed Chair Jerome Powell speak live to the International Monetary Fund NAR - Realtor.com Why Are Home Prices Rising So High? Blame Record-Low Mortgage Rates Redfin What Hurts a Home Appraisal? And 7 Things You Can Do to Fix Them CNBC U.S. government budget ends fiscal year with a more than $3 trillion deficit Calculated Risk Blog Q3 GDP Forecasts Calculated Risk Blog Black Knight: Number of Homeowners in COVID-19-Related Forbearance Plans Increased Slightly Following Large Decline Last Week

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