In the day just passed, bonds enjoyed one of their best rally days in recent weeks as the stock market endured its 2nd weakest day since May.  Stocks weren't the exclusive motivation, but there's no way to pin down cause and effect without descending into conjecture.  Leading suspects include a technical bounce at 2.15% (i.e. traders sold as much as they were willing to sell after the strong jobs number 2 weeks ago), a global supply chain warning from the IMF, and a now-tabled impeachment vote in the House yesterday evening.  If we had to pick 2 , however, they'd be the stock sell-off and the technical bounce in bonds. In the day ahead, we'll consider a technical bounce on the other side of this week's range.  Rather than make it down to the 2.02% or 1.975% levels that were more relevant in the past few weeks, 10yr yields have thus far stalled out at 2.037% on two prominent occasions (today's overnight session being one of them).  Without much more by way of actionable economic data this week and given the fact that a certain portion of the trading community will be wrapping things up for the week today, 2.037% and 2.15% could be locked-in as the bookends for the next mini-consolidation.  Whether that can last all the way to Fed day in just under 2 weeks remains to be seen.

July 18, 2019 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: 30 Yr. Fixed 6.22% +0.09%   6.11% 7.26% 15 Yr. Fixed 5.75% +0.04%   5.54% 6.59% 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.14% -0.01%   6.14% 7.45% Compare Mortgage Rates from Local Lenders for Jul 18, 2019 Mortgage Rates Drop as Bond Gains Accelerate Wed, Jul 17, 2019 5:27PM Mortgage rates improved today, depending on the lender and the time of day! Underlying bond markets were only modestly stronger in the morning. As such, the average lender only offered modest improvements over yesterday's rates at first. But as the day progressed, market volatility favored bonds. Once bonds improved enough, many lenders ended up offering positive reprices. Even then, most lenders don't tend to drop rates enough to fully reflect friendly market movements such as today's. That means tomorrow's rates could be even better if the underlying bond market can merely manage to hold ste... (read more) Mortgage News Daily Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.22% +0.09 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.75% +0.04 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 5.95% +0.04 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.14% -0.01 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 5.65% 0.00 0.00 30 Yr. VA 5.98% +0.06 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 9/17 Freddie Mac Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.35% -0.15 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.50% -0.10 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 9/11 Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.49% -0.15 0.56 15 Yr. Fixed 5.70% -0.14 0.55 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.44% -0.14 0.48 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 9/10 UMBS 30YR 5.0 99.78 +0.19   95.05 100.47 UMBS 30YR 5.5 101.20 +0.17   97.47 101.61 10 YR Treasury 4.050 -0.031   3.706 4.780 MBS Live Day Ahead: Bonds Consider New Resistance as Week Winds Down Thu, Jul 18, 2019 8:48AM In the day just passed, bonds enjoyed one of their best rally days in recent weeks as the stock market endured its 2nd weakest day since May.  Stocks weren't the exclusive motivation, but there's no way to pin down cause and effect without descending into conjecture.  Leading suspects include a technical bounce at 2.15% (i.e. traders sold as m... (read more) MBS Price Change UMBS 4.5 97.82 +0.20 UMBS 5.0 99.81 +0.23 UMBS 5.5 101.22 +0.19 GNMA 4.5 98.19 +0.17 GNMA 5.0 100.08 +0.26 GNMA 5.5 101.07 +0.18 Pricing as of: 9/18 6:43AM EST US Treasury Yield Change 2 YR Treasury 3.520 -0.044 5 YR Treasury 3.610 -0.046 7 YR Treasury 3.795 -0.044 10 YR Treasury 4.043 -0.038 30 YR Treasury 4.645 -0.043 Pricing as of: 9/18 6:43AM EST Other News June Closing Rates Highest in 8 Years Thu, Jul 18, 2019 8:37AM Closing rates for mortgage loans were at the highest level in June since Ellie Mae began collecting the data in 2011. The company, in its June Origination Insight Report , said 76.8 percent of all loans closed , up from a rate of 75.6 percent the previous month. Closing rates on purchase loans hit 78.8 percent while the rate for refinances was 73.4 percent. ... (read more) NAR Reports Sharp Drop in International Home Purchases Thu, Jul 18, 2019 8:24AM There was a huge decline in foreign investment in U.S. real estate during the 12 months ending with the first quarter of 2019. The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) said the reduction was evident in both the purchases of resident (i.e. recent immigrants) and non-resident foreign buyers and explained the drop as the result of slowing global economic... (read more) June Construction Numbers Tried to Hang on, But Failed to Impress Wed, Jul 17, 2019 11:25AM The residential construction numbers in June were expected to come in largely in the same neighborhood as in May. Analysts however got it only half right. While starts fell fractionally, permits took a dive, falling by 6.1 percent compared to the previous month. The U.S. Census Bureau and Department of Housing and Urban Development said permits for residenti... (read more) Construction, Broker Products; Lender Flood News; State Farm/Rocket Mortgage Thu, Jul 18, 2019 8:46AM There’s a lot going on out there! Rocket Mortgage is creating new technology that will allow the State Farm agents to offer a Rocket Mortgage loan as a licensed loan originator. Some accounting staff believe their prayers have been answered regarding CECL. The Financial Accounting Standards Board voted Wednesday to propose to delay some of its major ac... (read more) Latest Video January new home sales drop nearly 7% Bank of America CEO: Loan demand showing consistent growth UK parliament votes on options to delay Brexit January new home sales fall short of expectations, down 6.9 percent Around the Web Calculated Risk Blog California Bay Area Home Sales Decline 4.7% YoY in Q2, Inventory up 11% YoY CNBC Now the market thinks the Fed could make an even deeper cut to rates later this month CNBC Millennials agree on the best way to investbut they're wrong CNBC Fed's Williams says to 'act quickly' to lower rates rates during 'economic distress' Bloomberg Mnuchin Says Deal on Budget, Raising Debt Limit Very Close' consumerfinancemonitor.com Draft Legislation Seeks to "Keep Big Tech Out Of Finance" CNBC A booming manufacturing report just poked another hole in the Fed's case for a rate cut Calculated Risk Blog Sacramento Housing in June: Sales Down 13.6% YoY, Active Inventory DOWN 11% YoY Calculated Risk Blog Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims increased to 216,000 CNBC European Central Bank set for a rate cut in September, economists predict NAR - Realtor.com Home Prices Have Shot Up Way More Than You Thought Since the Recession builderonline.com Housing in Northern Va. Spikes 17% Ahead of Amazon Build-Out Bloomberg July Rate Cut Makes Sense, Says FTN Financial's Low

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