Bonds had a reasonably rough day yesterday, but most of the weakness was reserved for Treasuries.  MBS managed to escape with minimal damage.  There were no standout market movers although cases could be made for trade deal optimism and supply concerns (Treasury auctions and corporate issuance).  There were also a few stronger economic reports in Europe overnight. Heading into today, bonds have been on the back foot right from the start of Asian trading hours.  An upbeat speech from Chinese President Xi set the tone early in the overnight session--at least for stocks.  Bond Treasuries are simply in a linear pattern of pain. It's a bit easier to see what I mean with respect to the linear move in Treasuries with them on their own chart. In the bigger picture, this means last week's nice little move down from the consolidation range ceiling is almost perfectly erased and momentum indicators are having second thoughts about the positive signals that were intact yesterday morning. One of our only chances for short-term salvation would be a much weaker than expected reading in today's ISM Non-Manufacturing report at 10am ET.  Otherwise, it's hard to see traders getting too excited about buying bonds until after this week's auction cycle.  Even then, if the trade war narrative continues heading in the same direction, it's time to go back to some of the more dire warnings of the last few weeks (like this one).

November 5, 2019 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: 30 Yr. Fixed 6.22% +0.09%   6.11% 7.26% 15 Yr. Fixed 5.75% +0.04%   5.54% 6.59% 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.14% -0.01%   6.14% 7.45% Compare Mortgage Rates from Local Lenders for Nov 5, 2019 Mortgage Rates Holding Gain, But Volatility Could Increase Mon, Nov 4, 2019 6:00PM Mortgage rates were flat to slightly higher today after dropping at fairly quick pace last week. In fact, if we're only examining one-day changes in rates, Thursday's drop was the quickest drop in months! That may sound slightly more impressive than it is, however. In terms of hard numbers, we're talking about roughly $22/month on a $300k loan. Most of those savings are still intact today, but the risk of volatility remains. Tomorrow brings an important economic report on the services sector (one that has resulted in bond market movement more often than not in 2019). If the numbers are stronge... (read more) Mortgage News Daily Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.22% +0.09 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.75% +0.04 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 5.95% +0.04 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.14% -0.01 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 5.65% 0.00 0.00 30 Yr. VA 5.98% +0.06 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 9/17 Freddie Mac Rate Change Points 30 Yr. Fixed 6.35% -0.15 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.50% -0.10 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 9/11 Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.49% -0.15 0.56 15 Yr. Fixed 5.70% -0.14 0.55 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.44% -0.14 0.48 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 9/10 UMBS 30YR 5.0 99.78 +0.20   95.05 100.47 UMBS 30YR 5.5 101.20 +0.17   97.47 101.61 10 YR Treasury 4.050 -0.031   3.706 4.780 MBS Live Day Ahead: Rocky Start For Bonds Ahead of ISM Data Tue, Nov 5, 2019 8:52AM Bonds had a reasonably rough day yesterday, but most of the weakness was reserved for Treasuries.  MBS managed to escape with minimal damage.  There were no standout market movers although cases could be made for trade deal optimism and supply concerns (Treasury auctions and corporate issuance).  There were also a few stronger economic reports... (read more) MBS Price Change UMBS 4.5 97.81 +0.18 UMBS 5.0 99.80 +0.21 UMBS 5.5 101.21 +0.18 GNMA 4.5 98.18 +0.16 GNMA 5.0 100.07 +0.24 GNMA 5.5 101.06 +0.18 Pricing as of: 9/18 8:09AM EST US Treasury Yield Change 2 YR Treasury 3.524 -0.040 5 YR Treasury 3.613 -0.043 7 YR Treasury 3.799 -0.041 10 YR Treasury 4.047 -0.034 30 YR Treasury 4.652 -0.036 Pricing as of: 9/18 8:09AM EST Other News Apple Commits $2.5 Billion to Bay Area Housing Funds Mon, Nov 4, 2019 11:44AM Apple has joined other high-tech giants in a commitment to help alleviate a problem partially of their own making. On Monday, the Cupertino, California firm announced a $2.5 billion plan to help address the housing availability and affordability crisis in Northern California. The company said that costs have skyrocketed for renters and potential homebuyers a... (read more) Early Stage Delinquencies Trending Higher, Especially Among First-Time Buyers Mon, Nov 4, 2019 8:23AM While mortgage performance continues to be the best in many years , with the national delinquency rate down to 3.53 percent and record low foreclosure starts and completions, Black Knight's September data shows a few disquieting numbers. The company's Mortgage Monitor for the month shows that delinquency rate improvement has slowed, probably to be expected w... (read more) YTD Residential Construction Spending Falls 8 Percent Mon, Nov 4, 2019 8:08AM Total expenditures on construction in the U.S. moved slightly higher in September but is lagging behind year-earlier figures. The annual losses are coming solely from the private sector as publicly funding spending is moving higher in the majority of building categories. The seasonally adjusted rate of spending nation-wide was $1.294 trillion in September co... (read more) Broker, Pricing, Workflow Products; Bank and Vendor Mergers; Fed to Pause Rate Cuts Mon, Nov 4, 2019 8:50AM Who says there’s nothing new under the sun? Here’s a 14-year old’s clever cure for the blind spot in cars . Uber launched a new division known as Uber Money offering drivers and couriers access to a mobile bank account. Here’s a Dallas builder’s attempt at creating an economic stormproof house . At ritzy New York high-priced con... (read more) Latest Video October ISM non-manufacturing beats expectations, 54.7 vs 53.5 Fischer: Fed cut, phase-one trade deal, strong cyclicals behind market rall... Santelli Exchange: CEO confidence and corporate capex spending drop Factory orders miss in September, down 0.6% vs 0.5% expected Around the Web CNBC Interest rates suddenly entered a new phase and they are moving higher thanks to possible trade deal NAHB Eye on Housing Construction Job Openings Continue Year-over-Year Gains CNBC Ray Dalio says the US will have no other option but to raise taxes in coming years Bloomberg U.S. Trade With China Tumbled in September After Fresh Tariffs Calculated Risk Blog BLS: Job Openings "Edged down" to 7.0 Million in September CNBC High-tech housing matchmaker HomeLight announces $109 million in new funding CNBC October ISM non-manufacturing index comes in at 54.7, vs 53.5 estimate CNBC US international trade deficit narrows to $52.45B in September, vs $52.20B estimate Calculated Risk Blog CoreLogic: House Prices up 3.5% Year-over-year in September builderonline.com The Reasons Behind High Housing Prices in Boston Reuters Chinese President Xi says need to bring down trade barriers Reuters Fed's Barkin: Conflicting signals make U.S. economy hard to read CNBC EU official Barnier says 'no one' has explained the benefit of Brexit 'not even Nigel Farage'

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