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Very Uneventful Week in The Bigger Picture
Heading into this week, we were hoping to see some consensus between the economic data and any "4th of July" effects on covid numbers. It seems that holiday-driven case counts are only starting to hit as of Friday. More importantly, markets seem to be taking it in stride (suggesting if it was obvious to us, it was obvious to traders). Add underwhelming data to the mix and this leaves us in an increasingly familiar holding pattern.
Econ Data / Events
20min of Fed 30yr UMBS Buying 10am, 1130am (M-F) and 1pm (T-Th)
Housing Starts +17.3% vs +8.2% prev
Building Permits +2.1% vs +14.1% prev
Consumer Sentiment 73.2 vs 79.0 f'cast , 78.1 prev
Market Movement Recap
08:18 AM Bonds improved modestly in relatively quiet overnight trading and despite gains in equities (give credit to positive earnings updates). 10yr yields fell roughly 1.5 bps and are trading just over 0.60% to start the morning. 2.0 UMBS are up 1 tick (0.03).
09:57 AM In a few blinks of an eye, 10yr yields have moved into negative territory--even if only slightly (+0.2bps at .62%). 2.0 UMBS are also just a hair into negative territory, but that's barely 2 ticks lower from the last update (not enough for negative reprice risk).
12:06 PM Bond yields spiking mildly after an IMF warning on runaway US debt levels. 10yr yields up nearly 1.5bps now and 2.0 UMBS down more than an eighth from AM highs.
02:33 PM A small amount of resilience but no major change after the mid-day weakness discussed in the last update. Bonds are on cruise control heading into the weekend after a very flat week overall.
MBS Commentary
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Very Uneventful Week in The Bigger Picture
Heading into this week, we were hoping to see some consensus between the economic data and any "4th of July" effects on covid numbers. It seems that holiday-dr... (read more)
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Rob Chrisman
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Want an estimate of how many borrowers might be out there, benefitting from your assistance by you giving them a lower rate (assuming they, and the property, qualify, of course)? Go to page 11 of Black Knight’s report . Is “oodles and ood... (read more)
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Mortgage Rate Watch
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Mortgage rates moved lower this morning as lenders got caught up with recent improvement in the bond market. The bond market is the primary consideration for interest rate levels and investors have remained eager to buy bonds for a variety of reasons... (read more)
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Housing News
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All three measures in the Census Bureaus June residential construction report moved higher , as the building industry continued to recover from its April collapse. However, of the three, only the rate of units completed was higher than its June 2019 ... (read more)
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Housing News
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The interest rates on mortgage loans that closed in June averaged 3.40 percent, down 3 basis points from the average in May according to Ellie Mae's Origination Insight Report. The rate for 30-year conventional loans was 3.42 percent compared to 3.44... (read more)
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Housing News
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There was another decline in forbearance starts this past week and the number of loans in active plans also fell for the third straight week. Black Knight's weekly report on COVID-19 related forbearances reported a total of 4.12 million loans that ha... (read more)
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