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Volatility is Possible, But It Wasn't Possible Today
Bonds have decidedly engaged in a stereotypical year-end grind. It's just like any other sideways grind, but the year-end versions tend to last longer and remain confined in narrower ranges. Breakouts are possible, of course, but breakouts that happen at this time of year are just as likely to be reversed in short order. Today's video discusses why the "golden age of lock/float risk" is almost over.
Econ Data / Events
20min of Fed 30yr UMBS Buying 10am, 1130am (M-F) and 1pm (T-Th)
Q3 GDP 33.4 vs 33.1
Philly Fed Biz Activity -26.8 v -15.9
Consumer Confidence 88.6 vs 97.0 f'cast
Existing Home Sales 6.69m vs 6.70m f'cast
Market Movement Recap
08:35 AM Calm, sideways trading overnight. Brexit concession from the EU hurt EU yields at 2:50am ET (fishing water rights). US yields followed somewhat, but remained in positive territory. 10yr is less than 1bp lower on the day at .93 and 1.5 UMBS are up 2 ticks (0.06).
02:17 PM VERY slow/sideways. Nothing significant to report. Scattered Brexit headlines, but no impact. No reaction to AM data. S&P futures unchanged. 10yr yield down 1.7bps at .921%. MBS up 2 ticks (.06)--all in similar shape compared to several hours ago.
MBS Commentary
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Volatility is Possible, But It Wasn't Possible Today
Bonds have decidedly engaged in a stereotypical year-end grind. It's just like any other sideways grind, but the year-end versions tend to last longe... (read more)
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Housing News
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Existing home sales finally took a breather in November, breaking a five month stretch of gains, often substantial ones. The National Association of Realtors® (NAR) said that pre-owned single-family homes, townhomes, condos, and cooperative apart... (read more)
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Rob Chrisman
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I hope that everyone had a happy solstice yesterday, with a few folks writing to suggest that “It is the shortest day, of the longest year, of our lives.” Given my background in capital markets I am regularly asked how some lenders offer ... (read more)
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Housing News
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The Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD) has extended the timeframe for several of the relief programs it put into effect last spring through its Federal Housing Administration (FHA) to help lenders, servicers, and homeowners cope with t... (read more)
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Housing News
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The Urban Institute (UI) recently held a webinar with housing experts to look at distress in the housing market. In a report on the findings, researchers Jung Hyun Choi and Daniel Pang say that, as of November, 3.7 million homeowners who had taken ad... (read more)
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Mortgage Rate Watch
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2020 has safely secured its place in the record books as the year of all-time lows in mortgage rates --one of them anyway. Several other years have recently boasted as many new instances of record lows, but none have done so with the average 30yr fix... (read more)
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