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Bond Market Modestly But Disappointingly Weak Despite Stock Sell-Off
Bonds started out weaker and looked like they might make a recovery in the afternoon thanks to a big stock sell-off. But yields refused to move back below the .76% pivot point. That's not the end of the world, but if bonds were inclined to rally or if they were feeling resilient, that would have been a good excuse to move into positive territory on the day. Failing to do so sends a somewhat ominous signal about the path ahead.
Econ Data / Events
20min of Fed 30yr UMBS Buying 10am, 1130am (M-F) and 1pm (T-Th)
NAHB Builder Confidence 85 vs 83 f'cast, 83 prev
Market Movement Recap
08:21 AM Bonds modestly weaker overnight with almost all of the losses hitting immediately after London opened. The culprit seems fairly conclusive: Brexit headlines. Yes, it still matters apparently! S&P futures up 0.7% and 10yr yields up 2.34 bps. MBS down 2 ticks (-0.06).
12:59 PM Decent recovery for bonds with MBS now unchanged and Treasuries down to the .76% pivot point (still one bp higher on the day). Weakness in stocks and a rally in EU bonds both helped.
03:27 PM Heading into the final hour of trade with MBS near their weakest levels of the day. Treasuries are near their strongest levels but yields are still higher on the day. That's disappointing considering the depth of the reversal in stocks.
MBS Commentary
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Bond Market Modestly But Disappointingly Weak Despite Stock Sell-Off
Bonds started out weaker and looked like they might make a recovery in the afternoon thanks to a big stock sell-off. But yields refused to ... (read more)
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Housing News
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For only the second time in its 35-year history, the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) topped 80 this month. The first time was in September. The index, a measure of builder confidence in the market f... (read more)
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Rob Chrisman
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Fifteen days until the election! How many days would it take you, or the company that employs you, to save up $11 million? In my discussions with CEOs, they are more concerned about how the election may impact the future regulatory environment than i... (read more)
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Housing News
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There were approximately 7.5 million second homes in the U.S. in 2018, the most recent year for which data is available. This is 5.5 percent of the nation's total housing stock. Na Zhao, writing in the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB's) E... (read more)
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Mortgage Rate Watch
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Yesterday, we discussed why rates are not actually at all-time lows. But rates are whatever they are. They're relation to previous lows doesn't really matter at the end of the day. Do you benefit from refinancing? Can you afford your new purchase pay... (read more)
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Housing News
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Last week Black Knight reported that the beginning of October saw a decline in the number of active forbearance plans of 649,000 or 18 percent as many plans reached the end of their initial period. It was the largest single week decline since the cri... (read more)
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