In the day just passed, bonds saw their first reprieve from the fairly brutal correction that has defined essentially all of September.  10yr yields dropped all the way to 1.81 after having broken above 1.90 in the previous session, but they weren't able to hold all of those gains.  Drone strikes on Saudi oil facilities served as the key market mover (and a great reminder that oil prices definitely don't always correlate with bond yields). In the day ahead, we can ponder whether it was geopolitical unrest that truly sparked the correction or if it's something we would have seen yesterday simply because it was time to see it.  The big bad correction had just gotten big enough to suggest it was getting to be that time, and the 1.80-1.94 range coincides with rates being in limbo between the strong August range and everything that came before (with the exception of the 1.5 days where rates quickly moved through the "in limbo" zone below). Regardless of the justification for the corrective bounce, tomorrow's Fed events dominate the outlook.  Whether we were correcting or continuing to move up an over 1.94%, the market will likely take its next big momentum cue from the Fed.

September 17, 2019 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: MBS Commentary MBS Live Day Ahead: Correction to The Correction. Does it Matter? In the day just passed, bonds saw their first reprieve from the fairly brutal correction that has defined essentially all of September.  10yr yields dropped all the way to 1.81 after having broken above 1.90 in the previous session, but they wer... (read more) Mortgage Rate Watch Rates Recover Modestly, But Uncertainty Remains Mortgage rates closed out their worst week since 2016 on Friday as the bond market underwent a classic correction after its best month since 2011. The bigger and more sustained a drop in rates, the bigger the potential correction. There were, however... (read more) Housing News MBA Says New Home Sales Increased for August The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) is anticipating an increase in new home sales in August. The organization's Builder Application Survey found the volume of applications to finance the purchase of newly construction homes was 33 percent higher t... (read more) Housing News Builder Confidence Rises Despite Manufacturing Slowdown, China Fears The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) increased 1 point in September. Along with an upward revision to the August number, that carried the HMI to its highest level of the year . The September reading ... (read more) Rob Chrisman Digital, Sales, Broker Products; Mortgage Compliance, Risk, and Fraud Q&A As yet another example of a mortgage conference eating into a weekend, leading attendees to travel on a Friday or Saturday, the Mortgage Bankers Association’s Regulatory Compliance Conference starts this Sunday. But the scheduling doesn’t... (read more) Housing News Tariffs are Creating a Perfect Storm for Builders The California Building Industry Association (CBIA) is calling the Trump Administration tariffs the "perfect storm" for the state's already troubled housing industry. The Association says tariffs, which have impacted the price of appliances, certain ... (read more) Mortgage Rates 30 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.79% +0.02% Rate Change Points Mortgage News Daily 30 Yr. Fixed 6.79% +0.02 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.99% +0.01 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 6.30% +0.02 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.87% 0.00 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 6.33% -0.06 0.00 30 Yr. VA 6.31% +0.02 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 7/10 15 Yr. Fixed Rate 5.99% +0.01% Rate Change Points Freddie Mac 30 Yr. Fixed 6.72% +0.05 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.86% +0.06 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 7/10 Rate Change Points Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.77% -0.02 0.62 15 Yr. Fixed 6.04% -0.02 0.63 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.69% -0.09 0.65 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 7/9 MBS / Treasuries UMBS 30YR 5.5 99.53 -0.03 Price / Yield Change MBS UMBS 5.5 99.52 +0.06 UMBS 6.0 101.31 +0.05 GNMA 5.5 99.82 -0.02 GNMA 6.0 101.35 -0.03 Pricing as of: 7/11 4:56AM EST 10 Year US Treasury 4.3666 +0.0198 Price / Yield Change US Treasury 2 YR Treasury 3.879 +0.002 5 YR Treasury 3.946 +0.011 7 YR Treasury 4.142 +0.015 10 YR Treasury 4.369 +0.022 30 YR Treasury 4.894 +0.024 Pricing as of: 7/11 4:56AM EST Latest Video January new home sales drop nearly 7% Bank of America CEO: Loan demand showing consistent growth UK parliament votes on options to delay Brexit January new home sales fall short of expectations, down 6.9 percent Around the Web Reuters Trump says China trade deal could come before U.S. election, or not Calculated Risk Blog CAR on California: "Low interest rates boost California housing market" Bloomberg Repo Squeeze Threatens to Spill Over Into Funding Markets - Bloomberg Reuters U.S. manufacturing production rebounds; trend still weak Reuters Trump's Fed pick, Shelton, calls for Fed coordination with White House CNBC Oil price jump won't hit US consumer spending, market bull Tony Dwyer predicts Bloomberg Facebook Says Central Banks Have Nothing to Fear From Libra Bloomberg Draghi's QE Triumph Hinged on ECB Colleagues From Tiny Economies Bloomberg Atlanta Startup PadSplit Sees High Demand for Low-Cost Housing Reuters Divided Fed set to cut interest rates this week, but then what? Bloomberg Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac Won't Go to Market Until End of 2020, FHFA Director Says - Bloomberg Video CNBC Expectations suddenly are rising that the Fed might not cut interest rates this week NAR - Realtor.com Millennials Are Resorting to This Questionable Tactic to Buy Their First Homes

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