Yesterday, we characterized the prevailing mortgage rate momentum as "broadly sideways," and while that's still very true in the bigger picture, words like "up" and "higher" might need to be sprinkled in this week. For those with a glass-half-empty approach, today's rates are the highest of the week and the highest since June 24th.  For the optimists (and, in our view, the pragmatists), today's rates are virtually identical to those seen on Tuesday.  Specifically, our 30yr fixed rate index is only 0.01% higher today--the smallest possible change. Motivation for movement in rates and in the underlying bond market was in short supply this week.  It would make more sense to view it as sort of hangover from last week's party (multi-month lows last Tuesday) followed by a wake up call at the end of last week from the stronger-than-expected jobs report. Bonds (which drive rates) care about big-ticket economic data and the jobs report is one of the biggest tickets. If there's a worthy competitor at the moment, it's next week's Consumer Price Index (CPI)--an inflation report that may or may not show the onset of tariff-driven inflation. Why would that matter?  First off, bonds simply don't like inflation and rates will generally be moving higher if inflation is moving higher. Additionally, the prospect of tariff-driven inflation is preventing the Federal Reserve from initiating rate cuts that would otherwise be justified by the current landscape of econ data and monetary policy.

July 11, 2025 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: Mortgage Rate Watch Highest Mortgage Rates of The Week, Just Barely Yesterday, we characterized the prevailing mortgage rate momentum as "broadly sideways," and while that's still very true in the bigger picture, words like "up" and "higher" might need to be sprinkled in this week. For those with a glass-half-empty ... (read more) MBS Commentary Overnight Selling But Still in The Range In terms of news that seems like it should be important, the biggest overnight development was the announcement of a 35% tariff on Canadian imports starting August 1st (up from the previously-slated 25%). Exemptions for USMCA goods and energy/fertili... (read more) Rob Chrisman AI Retention, Jumbo AUS, Bridge, HELOC Products; Wholesale and Investor News Don’t forget to snag your free Slurpee today at participating 7-Elevens! Speaking of edible things, I like my Frosted Flakes, Froot Loops, and Raisin Bran. M&A is not confined to lenders: Imagine my surprise when I learned that Michigan's WK Kell... (read more) Mortgage Rates 30 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.83% +0.01% Rate Change Points Mortgage News Daily 30 Yr. Fixed 6.83% +0.01 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.03% 0.00 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 6.37% +0.02 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.90% 0.00 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 6.27% -0.05 0.00 30 Yr. VA 6.39% +0.02 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 7/14 15 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.03% +0.00% Rate Change Points Freddie Mac 30 Yr. Fixed 6.72% +0.05 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.86% +0.06 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 7/10 Rate Change Points Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.77% -0.02 0.62 15 Yr. Fixed 6.04% -0.02 0.63 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.69% -0.09 0.65 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 7/9 MBS / Treasuries UMBS 30YR 5.5 99.20 -0.13 Price / Yield Change MBS UMBS 5.5 99.20 -0.13 UMBS 6.0 101.14 -0.09 GNMA 5.5 99.58 -0.08 GNMA 6.0 101.25 -0.06 Pricing as of: 7/14 4:47PM EST 10 Year US Treasury 4.4243 +0.0160 Price / Yield Change US Treasury 2 YR Treasury 3.899 -0.002 5 YR Treasury 3.982 +0.011 7 YR Treasury 4.186 +0.007 10 YR Treasury 4.424 +0.016 30 YR Treasury 4.967 +0.012 Pricing as of: 7/14 4:47PM EST Latest Video Lael Brainard: Fed has room to consider cutting rates later in the year Next Fed chair pick likely to move market less, says Jefferies' Zervos President Trump announces 25% tariffs on Japan and South Korea starting Aug... GOP bill is largely priced into U.S. Treasurys, says JPMorgan's Priya Misra Around the Web CNBC Treasury posts unexpected surplus in June as tariff receipts surge Eye on Housing Shrinking Lots: Spec Building New Norm CNBC Trump budget chief Vought ramps up criticism of Powell, vows investigation into Fed renovations Calculated Risk Blog 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in June Market Watch A key piece of the next consumer-price report risks upsetting the bond market Calculated Risk Blog Part 2: Current State of the Housing Market; Overview for mid-July 2025 CNBC U.S. tariffs take center stage but China and the EU are quietly clashing CNBC CNBC Daily Open: The battleground for Fed chair might have shifted to renovations from rates Marketwatch Jobless claims fall to nearly 2-month low. No sign layoffs have risen due to trade wars. Eye on Housing Mortgage Applications Picked Up in June as Rates Eased Eye on Housing Remodeling Market Sentiment Dips in Second Quarter CNBC CNBC Daily Open: AI is drawing investors' attention away from fresh tariffs Calculated Risk Blog Q2 GDP Tracking: Mid-to-high 2s

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