All Eyes on CPI Bonds have sold off a bit so far in July, but haven't lost much more ground versus last Tuesday as of this afternoon.  In other words, trading levels have been coiling for nearly a week as we've traversed a data-free calendar in anticipation of a very important CPI (Consumer Price Index). This is most notable opportunity yet for big-ticket data to show tariff impacts both because it's the first major report for June and also because several Fed members have specifically mentioned June's data as being likely affected. It doesn't take much to connect the dots from there. If the data isn't materially affected, rates should like it, and vice versa. As always, potential volatility is just that: potential. Data could thread the needle or go big in a specific direction. Either way, this is a report where the underlying components can outweigh the suggestion of the top line numbers, so the reaction may be counterintuitive at first. Econ Data / Events No scheduled data/events on Monday Market Movement Recap 10:16 AM Sideways overnight. Slightly weaker at first, then recovering after 9:30am NYSE Open 12:18 PM 10yr yields are up 2.7bps at 4.435 and MBS are down 5 ticks (.16) on the day and the same amount versus the highs of the day 02:58 PM Modest bounce, but still slightly weaker.  MBS down an eighth and 10yr up 2bps at 4.428

July 14, 2025 Download our Mobile App: Download our Mobile App: MBS Commentary All Eyes on CPI All Eyes on CPI Bonds have sold off a bit so far in July, but haven't lost much more ground versus last Tuesday as of this afternoon.  In other words, trading levels have been coiling for nearly a week a... (read more) Mortgage Rate Watch Mortgage Rates Just a Hair Higher Ahead of Important Inflation Report Today's movement in mortgage rates, in and of itself, is barely worth mentioning.  The average lender remains close enough to Friday's levels but is technically just a hair higher.  That fact is offset by the counterpoint that most of the p... (read more) Rob Chrisman HELOC, Servicing, AI Fee Research Tools; Webinars and Training; Anti-Poaching Interview In news for fans of the wholesale lending channel (more below), heading into the baseball All Star Break the Philadelphia Phillies, owned in part by Freedom Mortgage’s Stan Middleman, are leading the NL East. UWM Holdings Corp CEO Mat Ishbia and SFS ... (read more) Mortgage Rates 30 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.83% +0.01% Rate Change Points Mortgage News Daily 30 Yr. Fixed 6.83% +0.01 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 6.03% 0.00 0.00 30 Yr. FHA 6.37% +0.02 0.00 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.90% 0.00 0.00 7/6 SOFR ARM 6.27% -0.05 0.00 30 Yr. VA 6.39% +0.02 0.00 Updates Daily - Last Update: 7/14 15 Yr. Fixed Rate 6.03% +0.00% Rate Change Points Freddie Mac 30 Yr. Fixed 6.72% +0.05 0.00 15 Yr. Fixed 5.86% +0.06 0.00 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 7/10 Rate Change Points Mortgage Bankers Assoc. 30 Yr. Fixed 6.77% -0.02 0.62 15 Yr. Fixed 6.04% -0.02 0.63 30 Yr. Jumbo 6.69% -0.09 0.65 Updates Weekly - Last Update: 7/9 MBS / Treasuries UMBS 30YR 5.5 99.18 +0.02 Price / Yield Change MBS UMBS 5.5 99.18 +0.01 UMBS 6.0 101.14 +0.03 GNMA 5.5 99.58 +0.04 GNMA 6.0 101.24 +0.03 Pricing as of: 7/14 9:44PM EST 10 Year US Treasury 4.4288 -0.0065 Price / Yield Change US Treasury 2 YR Treasury 3.898 -0.011 5 YR Treasury 3.985 -0.004 7 YR Treasury 4.190 -0.005 10 YR Treasury 4.430 -0.005 30 YR Treasury 4.973 -0.006 Pricing as of: 7/14 9:44PM EST Latest Video Major banks to report Q2 earnings this week Next Fed chair pick likely to move market less, says Jefferies' Zervos Lael Brainard: Fed has room to consider cutting rates later in the year GOP bill is largely priced into U.S. Treasurys, says JPMorgan's Priya Misra Around the Web CNBC Nearly one third of major U.S. housing markets now see falling home prices Calculated Risk Blog CPI Preview Calculated Risk Blog Will House Prices Decline Nationally in 2025? Calculated Risk Blog Housing July 14th Weekly Update: Inventory down 0.7% Week-over-week, Down 11% from 2019 Levels Eye on Housing Lot Values Trend Higher in 2024 CNBC Treasury posts unexpected surplus in June as tariff receipts surge Eye on Housing Shrinking Lots: Spec Building New Norm CNBC Treasury yields hold steady as Trump threatens 30% tariffs on EU, Mexico Calculated Risk Blog 2nd Look at Local Housing Markets in June CNBC Trump budget chief Vought ramps up criticism of Powell, vows investigation into Fed renovations CNBC CNBC Daily Open: The battleground for Fed chair might have shifted to renovations from rates CNBC U.S. tariffs take center stage but China and the EU are quietly clashing Calculated Risk Blog Q2 GDP Tracking: Mid-to-high 2s

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